By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist
The agreement between the US and Iran, aimed at ending the war, which was initially planned to be signed with “wet signatures” in Switzerland and later became an agreement “signed remotely,” was announced in large headlines, just like the so-called “Gaza Peace Agreement” signed in Egypt, and was welcomed with great satisfaction in the global arena.
While US President Donald Trump is trying to “sell” this agreement, signed after a war in which the US achieved almost none of its objectives, as a great victory narrative, he is also insistently trying to demonstrate his intention to carry out this process despite so much uncertainty, chaos, and Israel’s “dissatisfaction.”
In fact, even regional powers that can agree on very few issues and suffered major attacks and economic losses during the process are trying, almost without exception, to support the agreement.
History will repeat itself in the short term!
However, these narratives bear a strong resemblance to the process regarding the “Gaza Peace Plan” put forward for Gaza in late 2025.
Indeed, we can state very clearly that the parallels between the two agreements are plainly evident and, in this sense, alarming.
Because, in fact, both agreements contain ambiguities that postpone issues that could not be resolved on the ground to a later date and, rather than providing a solution, actually aim to create an “atmosphere of victory” for the US through temporary measures.
The fact that, despite eight months having passed since the agreement—signed approximately eight months ago and announced to move to its second phase only 15 days after the signing date—no progress has been made in the process proves this thesis of mine.
The Gaza Agreement was never implemented!
While Israel continues its occupation in Gaza, according to official records, nearly 2,000 Palestinians, including 259 children, lost their lives during this short period alone despite the ceasefire.
This failed “Gaza Peace,” supported by more than 15 countries that, despite pledging more than 200 billion dollars, failed to fulfill any of their promises, appears likely to become a precedent for the “Iran Peace.”
Because, while Israel continues its supposed commitment to the Gaza Peace, it continues to steer the process in the direction it desires by creating new faits accomplish on the ground, and in the Iran agreement, it is already demonstrating from the very first day that it intends to pursue a similar process with the Lebanon ultimatum.
On the other hand, the fragile 60-day ceasefire process that was put forward failed to produce results during both the 12-day war and the 40-day war, as well as during the subsequent controlled conflict process that lasted 107 days.
New realities
In an environment where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which was not even part of the equation before the war—has now become a global issue, it is clearly seen that Iran’s strategy of targeting critical and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf has worked in its favor.
On the Israeli front, however, the situation has created greater chaos than expected.
The “far-right” coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly criticizes the agreement, and according to the latest information published by The Washington Post, US intelligence is already warning the Trump administration that Israel is conducting serious activities aimed at undermining the agreement.
Why is Israel dissatisfied?
Despite major attacks and grand claims, if there is one definite reality, it is the fact that Israel has failed to achieve a decisive military outcome against either Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran during this prolonged period of war.
This undoubtedly strengthens Israel’s tendency to accept the agreement on paper while sabotaging it on the ground, as The Washington Post, citing intelligence sources, has reported.
On the other hand, with this war, the Hormuz card, which has become a major leverage for Iran, has now become one of the greatest risks both for the US and globally if it is not prevented by the US, thus turning into a major test for US global supremacy.
The Gaza example and deadlock
Following the October 7, 2023 attacks, Israel put forward the goal of “total victory” in the context of Gaza. However, despite continuing its attacks for approximately two and a half years, it not only failed to fully achieve its objectives, but in October 2025 was also forced to reach an agreement with Hamas, which it had set out to eliminate.
However, Israel and Hamas accepted a phased and postponed plan rather than a comprehensive peace, yet due to the process carried out through Israel’s hidden agenda, this agreement never even advanced to the second phase.
This picture reveals the structural problem of phased agreements while also demonstrating the fact that the US’s role as a global mediator becomes completely meaningless when it comes to Israel.
This reality has also turned into a process that not only hinders the reconstruction of Gaza but also jeopardizes broader Middle Eastern stability.
Conclusion
Although the agreement between the US and Iran may be interpreted as a positive development capable of preventing the resumption of war in the short term, all these realities on the ground and the recent Gaza experience have clearly demonstrated that Israel will not abide by any agreement.
While postponing deadlocks strengthens sabotaging actors such as Israel, it also renders temporary occupations created through attacks launched under the pretext of so-called buffer zones “permanent.”
Yes; although all these experiences show that temporary agreements can stop wars in the short term, they also reveal that in the long term they serve certain well-known circles.
It appears that agreements no longer bring about a comprehensive peace order, and freezing crises transforms them into a sustainable order for the “powerful.”