By Larry C. Johnson, Former CIA Analyst
The international conference entitled “The Alliance to Prevent a Great War,” organized by the World Civilizations Initiative Research Center, was held at the Meyra Palace Hotel in Ankara on 18–19 July 2026.
UWI will present the speeches held on the conference during the coming days.
The conference, which featured presentations by speakers from Azerbaijan, Belarus, France, Germany, Greece, Iran, Italy, Japan, Russia, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States, was attended by approximately 200 distinguished invited guests.
Ministers, members of parliament, ambassadors, retired generals, scholars, politicians, diplomats, military officers, and experts examined the question of the “Alliance to Prevent a Great War” from a wide range of perspectives.
Below, we present the speech of Larry C. Johnson, former CIA Analyst. The title was set by UWI.
Ah, Türkiye, Türkiye, Türkiye. And I’m not talking about the bird that Americans love to carve up for Thanksgiving. I’m talking about Türkiye, the successor of the Ottoman Empire. Are they going to continue to be a pawn, or are they going to be a player? That’s the question I want to answer today—or attempt to.
So, why am I talking about Türkiye? The Turks sit at a crossroads right now, caught between NATO and between the future security architecture in the Persian Gulf. Türkiye, let’s face it, has always been the red-headed stepchild both with NATO and with the EU. I mean, the Turks have been banging on the door to get into the European Union for over 25, 30 years, and the Europeans won’t let them. Why? Because they’re a bunch of Muslims. They’re not going to let a bunch of Muslims into what was once Christian Europe. And anyway, there is a racist element to the view of Europeans towards the Turks. They look at them as ‘you’re just a bunch of Muslims, and you’re not that smart.’ And what’s amazing to me is the Turks have put up with this humiliation year after year after year.
In the most recent expression of this, Türkiye hosted NATO. Now, I’d like—too bad we don’t have the interaction of being able to see your faces and have you raise your hands—but how many of you think that if Israel attacked Türkiye, as Israel has vowed to do in the last month, how many of you believe that the other NATO nations would, under Article 5, come to the aid of Türkiye? The answer is zero. None.
Then, the most interesting spectacle at this NATO summit was ostensibly the United States offering to sell F-35s to the Turks in exchange for the Turks eliminating the S-400 air defense system that they’ve received from Russia. And it’s at this point that you have to begin to question: have the Turks lost their mind? This is crazy.
The F-35 is a very expensive aircraft, about $100 million a piece. But on top of it, according to the U.S. Secretary of the Air Force in recent congressional testimony about three weeks ago—and I’m recording this right now on Wednesday, July 15th—the Secretary of the Air Force said that the readiness of these planes, that for every 100, only two or three are combat capable. The rest are in the hangar, they have an ailment, they have a hangover, they are lacking software, they’ve got some problem. So, a very expensive aircraft that’s not terribly reliable. And on top of it, it’s very expensive to operate, estimated at $45,000 per flight hour.
And that’s what the United States wants to sell Türkiye. I’ve said tongue-in-cheek: Türkiye is going to get a ‘Türkiye’ if it proceeds with this sale. And ‘Türkiye’ in English slang is not a positive; it’s generally something negative, something that’s clumsy, unworkable, just like the bird itself, the Türkiye.
Then, to ask Türkiye to give up its S-400 air defense system? The S-400 completely surpasses Patriot missile systems, both in functionality, but more importantly, you can’t get any Patriot missiles right now. The supplies are beyond limited. They’re not able to produce anymore right now because of a hold-up and a lack of access to rare earth minerals that come out of China.
Now, I have received reports—Pepe Escobar and I both—that the Pakistanis are working closely with Egypt, and with Türkiye, and with Saudi Arabia, and with Iran to create a new pan-Islamic security force for West Asia that would essentially be there to defend the other Arab Muslim countries from Israel and from the West. It is not stated explicitly like that, but that’s the real intent.
And I think this is something that the Turks are going to have to come to grips with to figure out: are they going to stick with this NATO dream where they are going to be the workhorse of NATO? Let’s face it, after the United States, Türkiye has the second-largest army. And before the start of the war in Ukraine, even though not an official member of NATO, it was a de facto member—it had the second-largest army followed by Türkiye. But is Türkiye going to continue to be used as a tool of convenience for the West when it suits Western purposes? Or is it going to step up and say, ‘You know what? We’re going to declare our independence and declare our importance and relevance in this field.’
Now, this brings us to Türkiye’s lack of leadership, failure of leadership, with respect to the Palestinian cause. Türkiye is the main conduit for oil coming out of Azerbaijan, passing through Türkiye, going to Israel. If the Turks cut that oil off, they would dramatically curtail Israel’s ability to continue to conduct combat operations.
So, my point is, we’re at a crossroads right now where the U.S. war against Iran, as it escalates, could very well bring the Turks to a point of decision. Are they going to side with the Muslims, or are they going to side with the demonic West? I’ll put it in those terms because I think a growing number of Turkish citizens believe the latter. They believe that it is important for Türkiye to separate itself from the West, embrace its Muslim faith, and align itself with other Muslim nations, even with Iran. To set aside the sectarian differences between Sunni and Shia, but embrace the fact that all worship Allah, and that it is to Allah that they are obligated.
So, this is going to be a very interesting time over the next month as the crisis with Iran worsens, as the threat of war expands, as NATO becomes more desperate. And in that entire scenario, with both Ukraine and with Iran, Türkiye is poised to play a significant role. The question is, will it? Will Erdoğan finally wake up and recognize that Türkiye can be the player that makes some decisive choices, or will it still be willing to be a pawn of the West, subservient to Western interests, until such time as it becomes disposable and Israel decides to attack it, leaving Türkiye on its own to fend for itself?