By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist
In the rapidly reshaping global landscape, it seems that Europe today is not only trying to balance its relations with the United States and manage its economic competition with China.
The decline of Europe’s industrial sector, social unrest, energy uncertainties ahead of the coming winter, and shortcomings in defense are turning the problems facing the continent into an interconnected security crisis.
The European Union’s efforts to preserve its nearly 100-year-old economic power and global supremacy! are also becoming a struggle to defend its political stability and strategic independence.
Street unrest in various European countries, particularly France, shows that dissatisfaction with the cost of living, public services and political administrations is deepening.
While protests and violent incidents in France have once again brought the impact of economic problems on public order to the forefront, what is happening is increasingly going far beyond being viewed merely as a security issue.
The decline of Europe’s industrial sector, rising living costs and social inequalities are now among the key factors fueling political polarization across Europe at a level that can no longer be concealed, and the political rise of groups labelled as the “far right” is paving the way for the end of the European Union.
When uncertainties over energy supplies, migration pressures triggered by an unjust global distribution, and the need to strengthen defense capabilities against Russia are added to this picture, the situation becomes truly existential for Europe.
The United States, China, Economic Interests and Strategic Independence
The fundamental problem in the European Union’s relations with the United States and China is that economic dependence is increasingly turning into a strategic vulnerability.
Alongside the crisis surrounding the security umbrella provided by the United States and the Ukraine crisis, it appears that Europe is also struggling to compete with Chinese companies in the face of the growing dominance of Chinese products in the European market.
The EU-China trade deficit, which reached approximately €1 billion per day, as revealed in a report published last week, clearly demonstrates the scale of this imbalance.
Of course, economics is not my area of expertise. Therefore, interpreting this figure would be overstepping my bounds. However, this figure also sends us important messages about the new world order.
The Events in France and the Voice from the Grassroots
Europe’s crisis of strategic independence and its economic problems are no longer limited to its inability to develop new technologies or the decline in exports.
Indeed, when we look at the reasons behind the recent street unrest, it appears that these problems are now directly affecting people’s daily lives.
The cost of living, particularly income inequality, and employment problems emerging after enormous defense budgets have been allocated appear to have weakened confidence in governments across Europe.
Energy Security as Winter Approaches
One of the most important tests facing Europe will be managing energy supplies and prices during the winter of 2026–2027 and, in addition, continuing support for Ukraine, which the Trump administration has now almost reached the point of abandoning.
Having reduced its energy imports from Russia to almost zero, Europe has increasingly turned towards LNG supplies and alternative sources. However, it appears that this transition cannot guarantee security of supply for Europe, whose stocks are now running out in the Ukraine-Russia war, which is entering its fifth year.
Severe weather conditions during the winter months, the increased demand for LNG in the Middle East and Asia, particularly because of the Iran war, and the impact of tensions in the Middle East on maritime transport are driving up energy costs, and Europe is far from finding solutions to these challenges.
In such a scenario, it is now becoming inevitable that the pressure of the crisis that began in France today and is gradually spreading across Europe will intensify.
The Defense Crisis: Does a Bigger Budget Mean Achieving Sufficient Capacity?
The Russia-Ukraine War has largely exposed Europe’s shortcomings in air defense, ammunition stocks, unmanned systems, electronic warfare and military logistics.
With the Trump administration, uncertainties surrounding the future role of the United States in European security have also increased the continent’s need to strengthen its own defense capabilities, and this uncertainty continues to grow day by day.
Indeed, although European countries are increasing their defense spending, rising budgets do not mean that the necessary military capabilities can be produced in a short period of time.
Independent procurement policies pursued by different countries, slow progress on joint projects and limitations in production capacity are making it difficult to use resources efficiently.
The Real Test Facing Europe
All the points I have outlined clearly demonstrate that Europe’s problems are, in fact, creating a cycle in which they reinforce one another.
While industrial decline weakens employment and public revenues, energy costs, which have reached critical levels particularly because of Russia, are also making production more expensive.
The inability to obtain energy from Russia is fueling industrial decline and even the erosion of technological superiority, while social dissatisfaction triggers street unrest. Meanwhile, helplessness in defense is clearly placing increasing pressure on the continued viability of these countries.
At this point, Europe’s strategic independence will be measured not only by its ability to withstand external pressures, but also by its capacity to maintain its economic and technological superiority and sustain its defense capabilities.
However, it appears that I am no longer the only one who sees that keeping all these areas under control has now become almost impossible; the entire world sees it as well.