President Erdogan, said that he “find(s) it difficult to understand Egypt” during his speech in which he announced that negotiations at the level of intelligence organizations with Egypt are still in effect.
After Erdogan’s important statements, I called former Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister Rakha Ahmed Hassan, whom I had the opportunity to meet with many times in Cairo, in order to learn what the Egyptian expectations from Turkey were, and how he sees the recent events in the region.
I asked first about the maritime deal between Egypt and Greece to Hassan, who has served in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry for many years and is currently working for the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
INSISTENCE ON THE 1982 LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION
Hassan stressed Egyptian hypothesis, claiming that “Egypt and Greece had made the agreement based on the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea” and claimed that Turkey’s reactions to this agreement had “no legal basis”.
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Hassan answered all of my questions about the Eastern Mediterranean relying on the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea and he chose to define the talks between Ankara and Cairo during the rule of Hosni Mubarak about the Eastern Mediterranean, as some exploratory negotiations.
When I brought the issue of the maritime zone losses of Egypt that come with this agreement with Greece and the Greek Cyprus, he only said that this was Egypt’s concern, and that the Egyptian authorities had insight on this issue, and that no one has the right to react on this issue other than Egypt itself.
“WE APPRECIATE ERDOGAN’S STATEMENT BUT …”
Hassan also made the following statements on the issue while commenting on President Erdogan’s statements that there are ongoing negotiations between two intelligence agencies;
“We appreciate Erdogan’s statements, but we have to look at the reality and solid facts in the field. A statement does not mean anything without any practice. Some solid steps should be taken towards the activities of Ikhwanist groups based in Turkey. Or to put it more broadly, the Turkish government should put an end to its statements about the Egyptian internal affairs.”
Hassan has also answered my question about which points were being negotiated between the two countries’ intelligence agencies;
“Egyptian and Turkish intelligence agencies have probably come together to talk about Libya rather than to talk about the Eastern Mediterranean. Both sides are aware that the military situation in Libya is critical…
Both the countries of the region and the United States support a political solution in Libya.”
WHAT DOES EGYPT MEAN WHEN IT SAYS A ‘POLITICAL SOLUTION’?
When I asked about what the political solution means for Egypt, Hassan has shared some of the information about the plan, which is the main subject of the negotiations;
“Aguila Saleh is now making efforts for an election in both regions of Libya. We are talking about a structure with a President, two Vice Presidents and a Prime Minister. In this new structure, it is clear that we need some new figures.
Egypt, the United States, Algeria, some EU countries and Morocco continue to work on this issue.”
Hassan has also assessed that Sirte and Jufra could be demilitarized and that AFRICOM or EU forces could be deployed here within the framework of this solution.
To the question whether Egypt supports the US proposal to this issue, he replied;
“Negotiations are still ongoing, no final conclusion has yet to be reached. The important factor will be the decision from our friends in Libya. Military activities have almost completely stopped.”
Hassan has evaluated the possibility of an Astana-like process being established in Libya, with the words “Government institutions in Syria are still standing, and in Libya the country is split into two. Therefore, these two situations are completely different”, while adding that it would be difficult for Russia to play a decision-making role in Libya, and that this is why the Americans are increasing their activities in the region.
“The Russians were influential in Libya during the Gaddafi period. Now, they will surely play an important role in the rebuilding of the nation after this political solution.”
Claiming that Turkey has intervened after the United States permitted in Libya, Hassan said that the Americans are trying to reach a balance in the region.
EGYPTIAN EXPECTATIONS FROM TURKEY
When I asked about Egyptian expectations from Turkey in order to restore the Turkish-Egyptian relations, which have been disrupted since 2013, I received a response very similar to what I heard from my Egyptian counterparts over the couple years;
“I do not understand why the Turkish side is so involved in the Egyptian internal affairs. Mutual trade relations are ongoing, but the Turkish government still maintains its aggressive stance against Egypt. On the other side, new pages can be opened if relations normalized.
We host some Turkish trade delegations every year in Egypt, and they are telling us that the government’s stance will gradually soften, but nothing has changed in the last 7 years.
It is time for Turkey to play its cards, and our expectations are very clear;
1. The Turkish government putting an end to its statements on Egyptian internal affairs.
2. Withdrawal of support for the media outlets in Turkey that broadcast propaganda against Egypt.
3. The Turkish government ends its support for the Ikhwanists.
When I asked about the possibility of Turkey deporting some of its Ikhwan leaders, which has been rumored around recently, Hassan simply replied, “Let us wait and see.”
WHAT WILL THE NEXT STEPS BETWEEN ANKARA AND CAIRO BE?
Hassan, who has served in the Egyptian Government for many years, putting forward the 1982 the Law of the Sea Convention on the Eastern Mediterranean, should be regarded as normal in the context of his country’s hypotheses.
Afterall, everyone is defending their country’s hypothesis.
In our interview with Hassan, contrary to the meetings we have held so far, he regarded President Erdogan’s statements about negotiations between intelligence agencies positively for the first time.
It is clear that there are steps which can be taken by the government with regard to Ikhwanist media outlets broadcasting in Turkey, and the names behind them, which could help normalize Ankara-Cairo relations.
There is no reason for there to be common solutions for the critical Eastern Mediterranean and Libya regions, if the political dialogue between the two countries begins.
A PEACE WITH EGYPT ON WHICH GROUNDS?
On which grounds the relations between Turkey and Egypt will be rehabilitated? This is a critical question at the present juncture.
Two different perspectives stand in front of Ankara and Cairo for a possible meeting;
1. A negotiation process involving the United States… in this case, it will be easier for the United States to settle in Libya under the pretext of demilitarization of Sirte and Jufra. This way, Washington’s strategy of destabilizing the region, dividing Libya and using Turkey and Egypt as a tool of balance against each other, will be much easier. Such meeting grounds are neither to the advantage of Turkey, nor Egypt.
2. The second perspective is a meeting independent from the US’ plans: direct rapprochement between Turkey and Egypt, without the putting any mediator in between. Turkey and Egypt are two countries with enough state traditions and maturity to solve the diplomatic issues without involving any other third parties, especially for the Eastern Mediterranean and the Libyan crises. Such solutions will not only soften the relations between the two countries, they will also lower the tensions in the region, prevent instability and the involvement of other third powers such as the United States.
However, in order to take this path, these countries’ leaders must show they have the will and the diplomatic sensitivity.