The informal meeting of 5+UN on Cyprus will start today in Geneva and continue until April the 29th. Prior to the meeting, the European Union has restarted activities to disconnect the alliance between the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Turkey and expel Turkey from island. United World International (UWI) has obtained the plan that was presented to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and put in action afterwards.
Sources that closely follow the matter stated to UWI that the Cyprus Summit takes place under conditions of raised tension between Ankara and Brussels, where the European Union supports the anti-Turkish side in critical issues, while the Erdoğan Government faces increased political and economic pressure. Background of the latter is the value loss of the Turkish Lira and national circumstances of the Covid pandemic.
Sources state that because Turkey recently leads an independent and region-focused foreign policy, the US and the EU are preparing an attempt to pull the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) on their side and thus would strike Turkey at its heart. This time, they do not target the Turkish ‘balance policy’ but directly the country’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Activities aiming at the Greek and Turkish elites
UWI has obtained information that Brussels has accelerated its acitivities on the island ahead of the Geneva meeting gathering upon call of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The EU pursues activities especially directed to Greek and Turkish elites on the island. Additionally, UN institutions on the island that has served Western interests traditionally are reactivated as well. Sources that follow island politics closely emphasize that these activities do not only target Turkey, whose foreign policy has gained momentum recently, but also powers that can be influential in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as Russia and China.
UN framework
The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borell’s aides in Cyprus traditionally present their activities on the island and their contacts with the UN as a full support to the UN’s efforts to establish peace in this complicated European region. On that way, the EU places itself into the UN Framework, which the Cypriots are already used to, and it gains access to UN work schemes that do not cause very much “headache” in the population of Northern Cyprus. The sources UWI contacted pointed to a structure on the island accustomed to get Western financial support in exchange for gaining the Turkish elites’ loyalty.
The trap for the TRNC
The EU’s “experts” on Cyprus have presented Borrell a new proposal, according to information UWI has obtained. The EU plans to use “full integration” as an incentive and raise its financial support strongly in order to expel Turkey from the island permanently. Brussels is raising its bet. The EU has in the past 15 years already spent an important amount of financial resources, more than 600 million dollars, to change the TRNC’s mind, but the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus has never turned its back on Turkey. Now, it is planned to publish new investment plans, provide COVID-19 vaccines to the TRNC and concede a special status for goods produced here to enter the European market without hindrance.
The Europeans are making promises to certain circles in the TRNC behind the scenes: Equal funding as supplied to the Greek side and the use of all the EU’s “offers” just as if they were a member, in exchange for giving up or putting distance to Ankara. At the same time, Brussels conveys a message to the TRNC through all possible channels that Ankara is suffering a severe economic crisis, lacking therefore financial resources to develop the island economically, and that Turkey will be isolated internationally very soon.
Additionally, the European propaganda in the TRNC focuses on the following points: Ankara is deeply stuck in solving its own problems; Turkey has not found a way to revive its economy and provide sufficient vaccination for its own population; it has not much to give to the “brothers in Cyprus”, if Northern Cyprus enters the wealthy Europe, it will achieve development.
“Be afraid of Europeans that bring gifts”
Sources that spoke to UWI have emphasized especially the following: “One has to be afraid of those Europeans that come with a gift at hand. What the EU can give to the TRNC is much less then the energy resources it will gain and exploit later. Moreover, is the TRNC enters the EU, it cease to exist and loose Turkish support.”
Ersin Tatar’s determination
These EU activities are actually not new. But they have accelerated their efforts recently and visibly. President Ersin Tatar, who is determined to act together and in coordination with Turkey, is their greatest obstacle.
President Tatar has answered on April 22nd in an online press meeting organized by UWI questions on foreign journalists. He clearly expressed the determination to reject plans of a federation and to defend the existence of the TRNC. Tatar also emphasized repeatedly and in a passionate way his position to defend the two-state-solution and to act jointly with the “homeland Turkey”.
How to disrupt EU plans?
It is impossible that the EU bribe influences the Presidency, but it might set pro-Western forces in the TRNC aiming to cause confusion in motion. Therefore, the international recognition of the TRNC’s sovereignty will play an important role in disrupting the EU’s plans.
The UWI-Press meeting with President Tatar actually provided indications of this. Representatives of media organs from important countries such as Russia, Iran, Egypt and Venezuela have presented questions to President Tatar, which were looking for common positions between their country and the TRNC.
The Russian media organs Sputnik and Komsomolskaya Pravda both compared in their questions the situation of Cyprus and Crimea and asked whether coordinated and joint efforts were possible. This is a new situation for Russia, and the questions indicate also a certain expectation north of the Black Sea.
The journalists from the other, abovementioned countries also presented questions that were searching not for differences but for common, shared positions of struggle. And it is noteworthy that all participating journalists addressed Ersin Tatar as “Mr. President”.
This meeting in a way also provided an answer to the question, who would recognize the TRNC. The global realities also point to the same answer, but the international press meeting and the great interest in it has displayed that conditions are ripening.
The strategy to achieve the recognition of the TRNC
The disruption of EU plans and the realization of this opportunity is only possible if Lefkoşa and Ankara follow a comprehensive strategy. The goal to achieve international recognition for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus needs an according plan and an according effort.
“Why is the sovereignty of the TRNC not only important for Turkey and Turks in Northern Cyprus, but also for the whole Eurasian geography?” Firstly, this question needs an answer that is explained well to diplomatic counterparts. Presenting this explanation to countries that will eventually recognize the TRNC, it needs to be demonstrated why the protection of the TRNC is their interest.
Secondly, similarities between the situation of the TRNC and the concerning country especially in terms of facing same threats need to be demonstrated, thus enabling building ties between the two sides. The questions of the journalists in the press meeting indicated this strategy too.
A single front: Cyprus and Crimea
In this sense, Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus are facing a great opportunity: to approach to Cyprus and Crimea Questions in a package and jointly with Russia.
The Mediterranean and the Black Sea are for Turkey and Russia one single front line. If the US dominates one of them, they will have control over the other too. US’ defeat in one of them leads to their weakening in the other too. Turkey and Russia have a joint destiny, they will win or loose together.
In this sense, the defense of the TRNC’s sovereignty also serves Russian interests. The situation is not different in the Black Sea. The US is not only surrounding Russia in the Black Sea; it is at the same time surrounding Turkey. Washington is applying elements of a comprehensive strategy here, and the same strategy that leads to US plans of establishing a puppet state in the north of Syria and Iraq, to new US military bases in West Thrace or to military build up in the Aegean Sea. Therefore, we can see clearly that the objective interests of Turkey and Russia converge in the Black Sea and in the Ukraine/Crimea Question too.
Greece is the ‘Ukraine’ of the Eastern Mediterranean, Ukraine is the ‘Greece’ of the Black Sea
Ukraine signs with the US an agreement to stop the TurkStream. Kiev is at the same time the strongest ally of the Phanar Patriarchate, which is pursuing all kinds of Anti-Turkish activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, serving American interests. And now, Kiev also has supported Biden’s declaration of a so-called “Armenian Genocide”.
For these reasons, Russia and Turkey can consider the Black Sea and the Mediterranean as a single front thus find a common language and start a joint initiative in order to solve the Crimea and Cyprus Questions as a package in negotiations. Beyond being possible, this is necessary.
At the end of the day, Greece plays in the Eastern Mediterranean the same role as the Ukraine in the Black Sea. Both are pawns of the Atlantic Front against Turkey and Russia.
Not concessions but common interests
The most important point here is the following: Turkey will take a step in the Crimea Question, and Russia in exchange will act in the Cyprus Question and the process will continues to deepen. A special emphasis needs to be made on the fact that these steps are not mutual concessions of the two countries. By acting in the Cyprus Question, Russia will actually have defended its own interests, likewise, Turkey will act in its own interest when taking a step in the Crimea Question.
The sovereignty of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus provides at the same time a guarantee for Russian interests. The elimination of US influence on Ukraine means safeguarding Turkey’s national security. Therefore, the Crimea and Cyprus Questions should not be seen as a matter of bargaining. The interests are common in both cases.
One cannot be Muslim and Christian at the same time
Turkey can of course develop its relations with the Ukraine. But Turkey’s relations with the Ukraine should never be directed against Ankara’s strategic ally Russia, especially if the aim is to achieve the international recognition of the TRNC. Otherwise, Turkey will have served US attempts to surround Turkey in the Black Sea and Russia will be pushed to abandon possible steps concerning the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
In this framework, Turkey cannot be the strategic partner of the Ukraine and Russia at the same time because these countries represent two contrary strategies. Strategic alliance with the Ukraine means US intervention into the region and to be a strategic ally of US plans to surround the region. Turkey’s strategic alliance with Russia aims to avoid US intervention to the region, establish joint security of the regional countries, to raise welfare, to distribute regional resources fairly, to develop trade. This is the strategy that establishes a geography of peace and stability. And it is the strategy that achieves the international recognition of the TRNC. The two strategies are contrary to each other. You cannot be a Muslim and a Christian at the same time. It is impossible to “pursue international recognition of the TRNC” and to “follow US policies in the Ukraine” at the same time.
Besides, will Turkey wait to develop its relations with the Turks of Crimea until the “territorial integrity” of the Ukraine is established? On the other side, there are approximately 10 to 15 thousand Russian citizens in the TRNC today. Shall Moscow not take care of their problems and interests until it recognizes the TRNC? These are practical problems we encounter in daily life, and they need an urgent solution. Even small steps can establish a path here. Putin’s invitation to Erdoğan to attend the opening of a mosque in Crimea is an opportunity.
The US is losing
Given all these circumstances, the US has taken a step back in the Black Sea. Its plan to provoke Ukraine to an attack on Russia has not worked out. Washington even had to pull back its two warships. Europe now takes the position that the Ukraine Question shall be solved peacefully. Peaceful solution means to protect the status quo. In other words, no one has the power to take the Crimea back. And there is no reason to be afraid of the US.
The eyes of Eurasia are on the TRNC
The road for Turkey to achieve the international recognition of the TRNC is open. It is easily possible to disrupt the EU plans mentioned above. Today, the protection of the TRNC’s sovereignty is not just a matter of Turkey and the Turks in Cyprus. Eurasia also attributes great importance to ensure the sovereignty of the TRNC and its alliance with Ankara, and Eurasian countries are following the Geneva talks closely.
The playground is well and the weather is nice. First steps are awaiting a sign of Ankara.