By Ali Rıza Taşdelen
From June 6 to June 9, the European Union countries will witness perhaps the most critical European Parliament elections in its history. Approximately 400 million voters across Europe will elect 720 members to the European Parliament.
European Parliament elections have been held every five years since 1979. Despite Parliament’s growing powers, more than half of European voters abstain from going to the ballot box. In 2014, the turnout was 42% and which increased to 50.66% in 2019. Previously merely a consultative body, the Parliament now makes political decisions, albeit without legal enforcement powers, and holds authority over voting on the EU budget and overseeing the EU’s executive organs, the European Council and the European Commission.
Political groups in the European Parliament
In the European Parliament, members of parliament are organized not by countries but by political groups. Currently, there are seven groups in the Parliament: the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Renew Europe (RE) which is composed of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the European Democratic Party (PDE), the Greens/European Free Alliance (Verts/ALE), Identity and Democracy (ID), the European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE), and the European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL).
To form a group in the European Parliament, at least 25 members are needed.
Rise of nationalist parties
Across Europe, nationalist parties described as “ultranationalist”, “far-right” and “right-wing populist” are on the rise.
Backlash against globalization has naturally led to the emergence and growth of nationalist movements. On the one hand, these parties have far-right rhetoric (including xenophobia), on the other hand they embrace national sovereignty and identity. They advocate for protectionist economic policies and appeal to the lower echelons of society and garner support from the majority of the working class.
They oppose interventionism in foreign policy and advocate for cooperation with geopolitical and economic powers such as Russia and China in line with their countries’ interests. While many had been advocating for leaving the EU, they increasingly prefer to remain within the Union, leveraging their growing influence to fight for an EU respectful of their countries’ national interests. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (Rassemblement National) in France stands regarding this last point.
“Centrist parties will lose”
In the upcoming European Parliament elections, for many, it is almost certain that centrist political parties will significantly lose vote to parties on the political extremes. According to a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), nine member states, including Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands, are expected to see Eurosceptic “right-wing populists” emerge as the leading parties.
The nationalist group in the European Parliament, “Identity and Democracy (ID)” – driven by increased support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (Rassemblement National) in France, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany, and the success of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands elections – is expected to gain an additional 40 seats in the elections, increasing its membership from 58 to 98.
Ukraine impasse
The elections will take place in the conditions where the economic crisis is turning into a crisis of the crisis of the Atlantic camp, that is imperialist-capitalist system with deadlock in Ukraine. It’s also a period where global balances are shifting, new alignments are taking place and gradually becoming clearer. On one side is the US, getting increasingly weakened and thus more aggressive, and Asia, led by China and Russia, on the other. Caught between these two camps, Europe is struggling, wavering and trying to find its place in the emerging New World! The results of this election are important for the EU to determine its direction in the coming period.
Europe, strictly following the footsteps of the US in Ukraine, is paying a heavy price for it. Ukraine sits at the center of the contradictions among EU countries. Even countries supporting Ukraine have deep disagreements about the extent of this support. Many EU countries, also the US, opposed Emmanuel Macron’s recent words – “Russia must lose” and “sending troops to Ukraine”-.
Trump causes concern
One of the concerns of the EU is the possibility of Donald Trump winning the next US presidential elections. Many in the EU believe that not only relations with the US, but also those with NATO, will undergo a difficult period if Trump becomes president. The EU especially is worried with the issues of support to Ukraine, deterrence against Russia and trade methods. According to Deutsche Welle, “The German American Chamber of Commerce worries that a reelected Trump would impose punitive tariffs on trade with EU members. In return, the European Union would have to increase customs duties and taxes. Trade volumes would likely fall, and economic growth would be curbed.”[1]
Also, there is no common understanding within the Union regarding the accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the EU. The issue of full membership with these two countries will come up within 2024. Similarly, the possibility of amending the Lisbon Treaty, adopted in place of the EU Constitution rejected by France and the Netherlands in 2005, and a series of reform packages may also be on the agenda.
Also, the reform of migration policies and approach to refugees is a significant factor that could influence voters’ decisions.
Europe without unity and stagnating system
Today, we do not see a united, cohesive and homogeneous EU. We have also witnessed that when the EU split into pro and anti-US factions regarding the Iraq war, the breakup of Yugoslavia, developments in Afghanistan and the Caucasus, attacks on Libya and Syria, the issue of the so-called Armenian Genocide, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and most recently in Gaza.
The EU can make no headway on political unity, a common currency, a common foreign policy, and the much-talked common defense policy (European Army). Unable to develop a clear and unified stance against the emerging world powers, that is Russia and China, Europe submits to what the US dictates. However, the way out of the political and economic of Europe lies in breaking free from the disintegrating Atlantic camp, adopting a more independent stance, and turning towards Asia.
Political, social, economic and even class balances were devastated in countries hit by neoliberal policies. The financial crisis of 2008 deeply affected Europe, the cradle of capitalism, pushing it to the brink of bankruptcy. The middle class collapsed. The inability to find a way out of the debt trap, the continuous decline in industrial production, the skyrocketing unemployment and the decrease in purchasing power have all stalled the system. This process has accelerated further with the unprecedented energy crisis caused by the EU’s Ukraine policy and sanctions on Russia.
People have expressed their dissatisfaction with the parties of the system by turning to nationalist parties.
The result of the European Parliament elections are prone to demonstrate an outcome of all this factors.
[1] https://www.dw.com/en/eus-tough-challenges-in-2024-trump-russia-and-more/a-67835700