By Hend Selim / Cairo, Egypt
Dr. Husam Al Dajani, the Professor of Political Science in Al-Ummah University (Gaza) spoke to United World International about the possible Israeli military operation in Rafah and its impact on the Middle East, the curse of the eighth decade that may end Israel and the possibility of reaching an agreement between Fatah and Hamas to form a national coalition.
Do you think Israel will launch a military operation in Rafah?
I think there is nothing prevent an Israeli military operation in Rafah. There is no stance, by the International Court of Justice, international institutions, the UN Security Council or even international or regional parties; none could threaten Israel if it entered Rafah.
Israel’s experience in entering all Gaza’s places and killing more than 30 thousand Palestinians is an important indicator. The occupying state has realized that entering Rafah will not change the clashes’ rules or the game’s rules with the international community, the international institutions, and regional parties.
Hence, the length of the battle is significant for Netanyahu to escape from internal entitlements that may overthrow his government, especially with the disagreement over renewal law and the opposition demanding early elections.
What is the expected scenario in Rafah?
I think Hamas’s proposal to Doha negotiations is very important to embarrass Netanyahu and to show that he does not want any political solution or any solution toward calm. Entering Rafah in Ramadan will not easy; provocation of Muslims in Ramadan may cause pressure.
How do you expect Egypt’s stance if Israel enters Rafah?
I think Egypt is refusing this operation. More than one statement was issued by the presidency, the ministry of foreign affairs and by all Egyptian parties. Egypt is afraid an operation in Rafah might push Palestinians into Sinai or into forced displacement, which surely threatens the Egyptian national security. Also, Egypt considers a military operation in its border is a threat to its national security.
The question is: What can Egypt do to prevent this operation. I think Egypt’s reaction will be limited to only political and diplomatic efforts. I do not think it will go beyond. Egypt can freeze its diplomatic relations with Israel, it can condemn, it can go to international forums, or it can use all possibilities to pressurize. Egypt is a country of major influence and can restrain the occupying forces by taking strong steps to prevent the military operation in Rafah and even in regard to stopping Israeli aggression. Egypt needs support from Arab and Islamic countries as well as free parties in the world to take bold and strong decisions.
Can the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel be cancelled? Are there any calls demanding that?
Camp David may be a political diplomatic choice which is serving the Egyptian national security in the light of Israel’s refusal to all solutions and settlements sponsored by Egypt and Qatar.
Hence, Egypt might rearrange Camp David Accords, wriggle out of commitments and redeploy troops as well as revitalize and develop Sinai.
Can the curse of the eighth decade come true and the State of Israel end, especially in the light of internal division, anti-immigration, and global popular criticism of Israeli attacks on civilians in Gaza?
The curse of the eighth decade was mentioned by the former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and several Israelis in statements and articles. That entity may be riven by social, institutional, cultural and intellectual divisions that lead to reverse migration from Israel, social capital migration or minds migration from Israel.
That entity may be afflicted by the curse of the eighth decade and disintegrate. Even the Holy Quran and Islam have assured that. We are witnessing signs of the end of this entity. Israel is living the great haughtiness because it considers itself the most powerful entity in the world, not only in the Middle East.
May Israel increase its attacks to include other places in the Middle East, especially in the light of Israeli attacks on Lebanon and statements about Greater Israel?
Israel’s aspirations of full-scale war and to create a ‘Greater Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates’ is an old Torah idea. Israel’s behavior may indicate that Israel thinks about increasing its national security space. Israel’s relations with Africa are an indicator because it has included the Nile’s sources. Israel’s relations with India indicate that it goes beyond Pakistan.
Israel wants to dominate and control to build the new Middle East which is a strategic purpose. Shimon Peres wrote about the control of the region as an old idea in his book “The New Middle East”. That idea pushes Israel to continue its aggressions beyond Lebanon, Syria and may other regions. The regional war may erupt soon, and its signs have even begun in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq as well as Houthis’ practice in the Red Sea.
What is the possibility of reaching an agreement between Hamas and Fatah to form a national coalition?
No doubt, all Palestinians hope to witness national unity. The hopes are rising from experiences that have spoiled reaping all political fruits of military battles although the Palestinian Resistance’s tremendous achievements in the field. Reaping the fruits has been obstructed by the political division.
Each party thinks the other party’s achievements threaten its interests and its institutional buildings. Hence, the division threatens, even after this genocide, the national unity. The real situation has been hindered by obstacles. We, as observers, can read some of its signs in Fatah’s last statement and in some statements as well as the decree of forming Mohamed Mostafa’s government away from the national agreement which is the opposite of what has been agreed about in Moscow’s last dialogues.
Can Hamas change its ideology to become a national independence movement, thus able deal with international parties?
Hamas tried to change its ideology in 2017, but it did not interest the international community. Surely, there is a hidden conflict inside Hamas between pragmatists and radicals. When the pragmatists decided to write Hamas’s political document in 2017, the international community did not give attention, which enhanced the radicals’ chance to control the movement.
I think the reason is the international community’s denial of Palestinian rights. If the international community works to establish the Palestinian State as well as pressurizes Israel into curbing its settlement expansion, stopping aggressions against Islamic sanctyties and stopping the closure of Gaza Strip, it will strengthen Hamas’s political pragmatists, which pushes Hamas into a political path that achieves international and regional stability on the condition that the occupier acknowledges the Palestinian rights, obeys the international law and respects the resolutions of international legitimacy.
Do you expect Russia, Iran, Türkiye and Egypt to introduce an initiative to resolve the crisis?
I think yes, Türkiye, Egypt, Russia and Iran are very keen to stop this war which has enormous impact on International and regional peace and security as well as those countries’ interests, especially Egypt. I think there are considerable efforts by Egypt to stop the war.
We have to ask whether the American administration will allow Moscow to play a role in this file. I think Washington will disable Moscow from playing a vital dominant role in this period in the light of Russian Ukrainian war. Hence, all parties may play through general pressure away from specific capitals. I think the United States has realized its policy in the Middle East seems wrong after the signs of Biden’s loss in the coming election in view of Netanyahu’s intransigence and denial of international humanitarian law.
To what extent does the American policy differentiate from the Israeli policy on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict?
I think the American policy is serving the Israeli policy. The Israeli policy is a settlement expansionist aggressive one, while the American policy strengthens Israeli policy. The United States can enforce peace and stability in the region. The United States can obligate Israel, but Israel is still influencing the American political decision through lobbies in the United States.
Democrats’ and Republicans’ policies toward Israel differ in the form but are similar in the content. All Democrats and Republicans agree to support Israel, although the genocide in Gaza is a violation of the American constitution and values, and even the American citizen’s principles. There is refusal inside the American society to the American President Joe Biden’s foreign policy which will be reflected in the coming election.