Former Turkish State Minister Cavit Çağlar recently suggested in an interview, “If it were up to me, I would get rid of the S-400s. We could sell them, and there are ready buyers. Russia would understand”. However, this proposal is fraught with traps for Türkiye on multiple fronts.
NATO-dependent defense systems do not suffice
Before examining this issue from the perspective of Ankara-Moscow relations, we must first consider Türkiye’s needs. Does Türkiye need the S-400s? This should be our primary concern. Of course, Turkish-Russian relations are important, but our foremost priority must be Türkiye’s own needs.
As we all know, Türkiye is currently encircled by a US-NATO, stretching from Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean, the Aegean, Thrace and even the Black Sea. In its fight against the PKK in Syria, Türkiye finds itself at odds with the US. The US recently announced that it would provide air defense systems to the PKK. Additionally, in the Eastern Mediterranean Türkiye faces threats from the US, Israel, France, Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus.
These are potential conflict areas for Türkiye.
In the event of an armed conflict in any of these areas, Türkiye cannot rely on NATO and US-dependent defense systems and weaponry. This is crystal clear. Therefore, Türkiye needs to develop a national defense industry independent of NATO and the US. Türkiye takes steps in this direction, which is good.
However, developing the national defense industry independent of NATO and the US this is not a duty to be achieved in a short time. Therefore, Türkiye also must evaluate alternative systems independent of NATO quickly. The purchase of the S-400s was not just a simple acquisition of a defense system; it was a strategic move to meet Türkiye’s critical needs.
To leave Türkiye defenseless
Washington is fully aware of this and thus seeks to deprive Türkiye of the S-400s. The US’s goal is to leave Türkiye defenseless, at least weaken its defense to the point where it cannot resist threats. In this, the US sought to impose its demands on Ankara. They want Türkiye to “get rid of” the S-400s so that it becomes an easy target that could even surrender to the US without fighting.
The S-400s represent Türkiye’s defense line against the Atlantic front. When viewed from this perspective, Türkiye has a clear need for the S-400s. In short, even if Putin were to say, “Sell them, it doesn’t concern me”, Türkiye should not dispose of the S-400s. Türkiye must not fall into this trap.
Sabotaging Turkish-Russian relations
The second issue is Turkish-Russian relations, which is also vital. After the 2023 presidential elections in Türkiye, a significant distrust of Ankara has emerged in Moscow due to the path Türkiye has taken.
Türkiye’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership, step back on sanctions with the US’s pressure, handover of soldiers from the Azov Battalion to Ukraine in violation of agreements with Russia, alignment of economy with the West through Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and the parallel shift in Türkiye’s foreign policy toward the Atlantic… All this has seriously damaged Turkish-Russian relations. If Türkiye were to back down from the S-400s with the US’s pressure, this would inevitably deepen the existing distrust.
Such a back-down would not be perceived in Moscow as merely regarding the S-400s, rather it would reinforce the belief that Türkiye is making a strategic shift.
Cavit Çağlar’s remarks are, first, extremely misguided in terms of Türkiye’s needs and secondly, dangerous for the future of Turkish-Russian relations.
Ankara should not even think about this proposal.