By Abbas Djuma
I wonder where those are who write that Iran is in shock and complete confusion, that Tehran does not know what to do and how to be, where do they get this information from? I have been working in Iran and with Iranians for many years, I have many connections there, and it is still difficult for me to say in what state the leadership of the Islamic Republic is in.
The commentators whose inferences I’ve been stumbling upon a lot lately don’t have much knowledge of Iran or sources there. They’ve likely never been to Iran and don’t know the language. Yet, they draw conclusions as if they just got off the phone with Khamenei and the latter complained to them about hopelessness and apathy.
Now let’s turn to the logic, which seems to be available to everyone regardless of insider knowledge and experience. But some commentators choose to ignore it too. There is a war going on. Sheikh Nasrallah, who headed the largest entity in the region, has been hunted for decades. Assassinations of this kind are a regular occurrence. Lebanon is awash with Israeli agents. What exactly about what is going on should shock Iran to the point where the Iranians don’t know how to act?
However, there are indeed difficulties in making decisions at this level. I think they are related to the fact that there are different opinions within the Iranian leadership on how to act. Based on these opinions, the decision will be made by the supreme leader.
I discussed what is going on with one analyst from Qom. Here are some of the talking points that seem most valuable to me.
– ‘If Iran does not retaliate, relations between Tehran and its proxies will deteriorate,’ is a completely false narrative of Israeli propaganda, picked up by people who have little understanding of the intricacies of the situation. They do not know that the ‘Axis of Resistance’ has sworn an oath of allegiance to the Supreme Leader. This is not an organizational or structural attachment; it is a cordial attachment of such a degree that people are ready to sacrifice their lives for the sake of the Rahbar. Many, even genuine credentialed Western and Russian experts on the Middle East miss the spiritual factor that remains beyond their comprehension.
– Just because you don’t see open answers from the Islamic Republic of Iran doesn’t mean there are no answers. Israel is on fire, huge numbers of people have been evacuated, there are no safe places, the whole country is in a state of panic and alert. Israel will never live peacefully until it follows the path of concessions and compromise. All of this is to the credit of the Axis of Resistance.
– The US constantly claims that it was not notified of the operation. This is a lie. The US cannot be unaware. Moreover, they are involved in planning and directing these operations. They need to restore the image of a great world power without descending into a global war from which they cannot emerge victorious. Iraq and Afghanistan are clear evidence of this.