Israel struck Hezbollah’s headquarters. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was martyred in the attack. UWI author, political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan was a guest on Türkiye’s Ulusal Kanal TV channel.
What is your overall assessment of Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s headquarters and the martyrdom of Hassan Nasrallah?
This is not only a serious loss for Hezbollah and Lebanon but for West Asia as a whole. Hassan Nasrallah spent most of his life fighting and leading the struggle against US imperialism and Israel Zionism. And now he lost his life in this struggle.
Hezbollah is not just a small radical group; it is a national liberation movement for Lebanon. Over time, Hezbollah gained the support of all segments of the Lebanon society, not just the Shia, the Christians too. You cannot end a national liberation movement by killing its leader. History is full of examples of this.
Weakening Israel increases aggression
What is your view on the course of the ongoing conflict in the region?
There is a war ongoing in Gaza. Israel is attacking with all its technological capabilities, but Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups are still standing. So, Israel has failed in its goal of eliminating the resistance groups in Gaza.
Secondly, there are conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. This will likely intensify.
Additionally, when evaluating the ongoing conflict in the region, it is important to keep in mind that Israel is going through a significant political and economic crisis. Many Israeli companies have declared bankruptcy and economic indicators are declining. Politically, the country is deeply fragmented.
Israel is a country built on immigration. But now there is reverse migration from Israel. This is a significant indicator. Also, around 2 million of Israel’s population are of Arab origin. As Israel continues these attacks, the question arises: How will Israel keep these 2 million people under control?
From the perspective of international politics and diplomacy, during Netanyahu’s speech at the recent United Nations meeting, many countries protested by leaving the room leaving Netanyahu to speak to an empty hall. Anti-Israel protests and boycotts are ongoing worldwide. Altogether, we can say this: A weakening Israel is becoming more aggressive.
Another dimension of this issue is the force behind Israel, the US. Today, the US is losing in northern Eurasia, on the Ukrainian front. In West Asia, many countries have stopped aligning with the US, so the US is weakening and becoming more isolated here as well.
Considering all these indicators, yes, Israel may become even more aggressive in the coming period and embark on further moves, but it won’t be able to reverse its decline and defeat.
“The primary responsibility is on Türkiye and Iran”
Do you foresee a strong response from Iran?
Iran supports both Hezbollah and Hamas against Israel. It has long-standing ties with the resistance movements. There might be several factors concerning every single country, but looking at the bigger picture, Iran must continue to stand behind these movements.
This is not just because of Iran’s strong ties to these organizations. If Iran were to take a step back or falter at this critical moment, or if it does not respond, these attacks and the war could spread toward Iran. Therefore, this is a national security issue for Iran, just as the case in Ukraine for Russia. Had Russia stepped back at that critical moment, the war could have spread to Moscow. But Russia took the initiative with the first strike. The same thing applies to Iran.
The US and Israel’s propaganda for Sunni-Shia division
How will these developments affect Syria?
Israel seeks to expand the war. The attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah are part of this. It is also known that Israel conducts airstrikes in Syria.
At this point, the most critical issue for West Asia is sectarianism. Right now, the US, the West and Israeli sources are pushing propaganda based on the Sunni-Shia division. However, there is one undeniable fact they can’t cover up: Hamas is a Sunni-based organization while Hezbollah is Shia-based, and they are fighting together against US imperialism and Israel. This struggle transcends sectarianism. Israel is the common threat for the whole region regardless of whether one is Sunni or Shia
The countries of the region must develop a united stance against US imperialism and Israel Zionism. At this point, the greatest responsibility falls on the two historical regional powers, Türkiye and Iran. Egypt and Saudi Arabia could also join, but the primary responsibility is on Türkiye and Iran. The normalization process between Türkiye and Egypt is also significant in this context. Moreover, such an initiative by the countries in the region could gain the support of the rapidly growing BRICS and could have a global impact.
If a barrier is not established to stop Israel’s fire in Gaza and Lebanon, this fire could spread to Syria, to Iran and even to Türkiye. Let’s not forget that there are many organizations under the control of the US and Israel. The PKK in Türkiye is such. No country in the region can stand against this aggression alone. We must not forget that the force behind Israel is the US. In fact, even though US officials claim they were not involved, there are reports that two AWACS planes took off from Greece and were flying over Lebanon at the time of the attack. The US intelligence and military are always involved in such attacks.
What do you think of President Erdoğan’s statement regarding Israel’s attacks on Lebanon?
The critical part of Erdoğan’s statement is his mentioning of the forces behind Israel. Erdoğan says, “We believe the Islamic world must take a firmer stance against these attacks”. Okay, this analysis is correct and insightful, but not enough. Türkiye must take the actions this analysis requires.
First and foremost, Türkiye must resolve its issues with Syria. A Türkiye-Syria rapprochement would open the door to deeper cooperation between Türkiye and Iran, paving the way for the leadership needed in West Asia, as I mentioned earlier.
What will be Russia’s stance after recent developments?
Russia has ties dating back to the Soviet Union with some of the resistance movements. On the other hand, Russia has maintained certain ties with Israel up to this point. However, since October 7, 2023, many Russian officials have started siding with the resistance groups against Israel. As Russia continues to fight against the Atlantic system in Ukraine and Israel continues its aggression, we can expect Russia to take a clearer stance. All these individual fronts we mentioned are parts of a single united front of the confrontation between Eurasia and the Atlantic.