By Islam Farag, Cairo / Egypt
Last week, the 16th BRICS Summit was held in Kazan, Russia, with the participation of five new members: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia.
Among the five new members, there are two Gulf states, but their approaches to the organization are different.
The leaders of the new member states attended, with the exception of Saudi Arabia. It was notable that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was absent from the organization’s first summit after his country joined. Riyadh was represented by its Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.
His absence from the summit, which was held on October 22-24, despite his participation in the EU-GCC summit in Brussels days earlier, sparked speculation about the Kingdom’s position on the organization.
Disappointing absence
The Saudi leader’s absence from the summit was disappointing for Moscow, as it sent a signal about the kingdom’s ambiguity and seriousness about joining BRICS. But others saw the kingdom as still weighing up its options for joining the emerging group while maintaining its ties with the West.
In fact, since the organization announced its invitation to the Kingdom to join BRICS, Riyadh’s positions on the matter have seemed indecisive.
In January, Saudi state television reported that the kingdom had formally accepted full membership in BRICS. But in February, a Saudi official said the kingdom was still considering an invitation to join the organization.
Commenting on South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor’s statement that the Kingdom has joined the bloc, the Saudi source told Reuters that the Kingdom has not yet responded to the invitation to join BRICS, indicating that the matter is still under study.
However, those frustrated by Riyadh’s hesitation understand it within the context of the political caution that characterizes the kingdom’s foreign policy. According to statements made by a senior Russian official to the Russian newspaper Izvestia, Saudi Arabia’s position within the organization remains uncertain due to the kingdom’s political and economic caution and the lack of a simplified procedure for joining the bloc.
Logical behavior
An informed Saudi source described the absence of the Saudi Crown Prince from the summit as logical.
“Since the Kingdom was invited to join BRICS, it has not participated in the group’s important events. Riyadh simply has not made a final decision on whether to join BRICS or the form of cooperation with the bloc and whether it will be a full member or an observer,” the source added.
The source, however, said that the Kingdom’s sending of an official delegation headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs is an indication of Riyadh’s interest in participating in the summit and playing an active role in it.
On the other hand, for those who do not know, Saudi foreign policy adheres to the classical frameworks in determining the course of its movement and work within any regional or international organizations. In other words, Riyadh does not walk with its feet into unknown area.
BRICS has not yet set any legal procedures or specific written commitments regulating its accession. This is what the Saudis use to justify their non-participation in all its activities.
For Riyadh, the organization still lacks many of the elements through which it can assess its political and economic gains and losses from joining the bloc.
The Kingdom sees itself as a neutral and active player within the global strategic balances, and therefore joining BRICS, which calls for a multipolar world, prompts Riyadh to be cautious in all its steps and to know the dimensions and repercussions of its joining.
Encouraging economic considerations
Saudi Arabia is in no hurry, and the decision-maker is still weighing the pros and cons of membership for his country before deciding whether to join effectively or stay away from it.
There are purely economic considerations that may push Saudi Arabia to join BRICS. Its countries, after the organization’s expansion, represent a huge market that constitutes 45% of the world’s population and 28% of the world’s GDP. This tempts Riyadh with great opportunities for mutual economic cooperation.
According to an expert, the volume of the Kingdom’s trade with the organization’s member states may exceed the volume of trade with its main ally, the United States.
“The increasing flows from key BRICS countries to invest in the Saudi economy will play an important role in the Kingdom’s attempt to transform its economy,” the expert added.
According to Saudi media reports, Riyadh views its membership in the organization as a support for its positions in the global oil market.
With oil producers increasingly competing for the Asian market, cooperation with Beijing and New Delhi, the two core BRICS members, could secure Riyadh’s loyalty among potential consumers. Joining the group would also strengthen ties with Russia, with which Riyadh coordinates efforts within OPEC+.
On the security front, membership allows the Kingdom to secure its bets on improving security and political relations by diversifying its network of international partners away from confining itself to Western powers.
What is tempting for Saudi Arabia in this regard is that formal membership in the bloc is well in line with its political sensitivities, given BRICS’ commitment to non-interference in internal affairs and respect for sovereignty.
Political calculations
Despite all these gains, Saudi officials are concerned about the potential risks of membership in the group, especially in light of global political entanglements.
The kingdom fears that an alliance with a group that includes Russia could embroil the kingdom in ongoing geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West. Also, the rivalry between China and the United States could complicate the Saudi diplomatic balance and have a negative domestic impact. These concerns are heightened by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
Riyadh is totally unwilling to lose the United States as an unparalleled defense supplier and indispensable security partner.
At the same time, BRICS includes competing countries, such as India and China, which complicates its ability to adopt a unified position on many international issues, something that Saudi policy does not like and does not have the luxury of dealing with in light of its already complex calculations in balancing its international duties and obligations on the one hand and its political, security and economic interests on the other.
Therefore, the Kingdom does not yet see any reason to prioritize hasty accession to BRICS, especially since it has effectively developed economic and political relations through bilateral channels, which makes membership in the group seem more symbolic than necessary.
A different approach
In contrast to the Saudi position, there is another decisive position adopted by the UAE in its clear and rapid acceptance of the organization’s membership. The discrepancy between the two positions can only be explained by the nature of the difference between the two countries in practicing their foreign policy.
Saudi Arabia is still bound by complex calculations in achieving its interests. It still prefers to act classically and cautiously in its steps and is more comfortable with the model of bilateral relations. As for the UAE, it does not have many complex calculations in managing and achieving its goals. At the same time, its policy is pragmatic, and it prefers the method of leapfrogging over any obstacles it sees standing in the way of achieving its interests. It mixes official and unofficial relations and prefers to benefit from the method of bilateral relations between countries, but it does not miss opportunities to appear in international forums. In all of this, it is never embarrassed to strengthen its relations with conflicting parties.
With its political intelligence, the UAE is training itself for a world it expects to prevail, which is a multipolar world. It does not find it embarrassing to be a major defense partner of the United States, but it constantly coordinates with Russia and China on many global issues.
Therefore, the UAE’s accession to BRICS comes within the context of its modern policy based on the principles of development and prosperity and enhancing multilateral international cooperation.
Its joining BRICS stems from the fact that pluralism and diversification of relations with international powers and blocs achieve global balance and sustainable development, especially in light of its preparation for the post-oil future and stages.
Last June, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan participated in the G7 summit in Italy, a pro-Western bloc, while he also participated in the recent BRICS summit, an economic bloc of fast-growing countries.
Abu Dhabi understands the importance of BRICS on the economic level. This is why it has played an active role since joining the New Development Bank of the organization’s countries in 2021, until its official announcement of its accession to the group in August 2023.
According to an Emirati source, Abu Dhabi believes in the idea of a balance of international powers, no matter how intense the political and geopolitical differences are and prefers to work on building balanced economic relations with the countries of the world by focusing on commonalities, which achieves rapid development results.
“The leadership in the UAE is aware of the differences in orientations among BRICS countries regarding the main objectives of the organization, but it sees that the path in general focuses on the interests of developing countries,” the source added.
In his view, the UAE views BRICS and its goals holistically. It understands Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to develop alternative payment mechanisms due to their differences with Washington following the imposition of US economic sanctions on the two countries.
The UAE does not oppose efforts to establish a cross-border payments system, but, like India and Brazil, it prefers to focus on cooperation between the West and the East to achieve the economic aspirations of the organization’s countries.