UWI author, historian and political scientist Associate Professor Mehmet Perinçek evaluated the recent developments in Aleppo focusing on their background and implications for Türkiye.
The territorial integrity of Syria and Türkiye
The key phrase when assessing developments in Syria from Türkiye’s perspective is: “The territorial integrity of Syria means the territorial integrity of Türkiye”. If we read the phrase reversing “If Syria is fragmented, Türkiye too will face the same risk. Therefore, Türkiye must oppose any organization or action that threatens Syria’s territorial unity.
Who are these organizations? One is the PKK/PYD terrorist organization in the east of the Euphrates, and the other is the cluster of bigot terrorist organizations in Idlib. These two factions are closely linked, and both play roles in US-Israel plans. The US and Israel cannot divide Syria geographically or demographically using the PKK/PYD alone, they also rely on groups like HTS for this purpose.
PKK/PYD and HTS as US-Israel’s tools
In Türkiye, it is well understood that the PKK/PYD is under the control of the US. What must also be acknowledged is that organizations like HTS are not different from the PKK/PYD. Remember that Donald Trump said that ISIS was created by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. In fact, we don’t need Trump’s “confirmation” to see that. HTS and ISIS, which claim to be staunchly “Islamist”, have not conducted a single attack against the US or Israel. On the contrary, they target countries targeted by the US and Israel such as Syria, Iran, Russia and Türkiye, as well as organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Taliban. They make war against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Assad defends Syria’s territorial integrity.
Those who celebrate HTS’s takeover Aleppo are the US, Israel and the PKK/PYD. Their celebration is understandable, as weakening the Syrian Army in a battle against HTS strengthens their positions. Moreover, under the guise of fighting HTS, the PKK/PYD might use this opportunity to expand their territories, a tactic introduced to them by the US. In Türkiye, certain journalists and analysts have also celebrated HTS’s takeover of Aleppo. This shows that they are steadily pro-American and pro-Israeli.
Those who stand in solidarity with the Syrian government and people are Palestinian resistance fighters, Yemen – currently one of the Islamic world’s greatest sources of pride for its military support to Palestine – Russia, Iran and Hamas.
Türkiye in Idlib
President Erdoğan frequently highlights the “Israel threat” toward Türkiye. If Aleppo were to fall into the hands of HTS and its allied factions, it would bring this threat closer to Türkiye’s borders. How could Israel harm Türkiye? By utilizing areas controlled by groups like HTS and PKK/PYD as steppingstones and power consolidation zones.
As for the stance of the Turkish government, while it has been vigilant regarding the PKK/PYD, disputes over Idlib have prevented complete alignment with Russia and Iran in the Astana process. HTS, expelled from Aleppo earlier, was effectively shielded in Idlib, allowing it to regroup and launch another offensive.
If we ask how HTS has reached this point, the answer is clear: the group receives its weapons from the US and Israel. Ukraine, acting as their proxy, also plays a role by providing military support. Many media reports have exposed Ukraine’s involvement extensively.
Also, the Turkish government’s indecisive stance in Idlib has contributed to the empowerment of terrorist organizations there. HTS may have even absorbed some factions previously under Turkish control into its ranks.
If Türkiye gets isolated and unreliable
Another significant effect of Türkiye’s policy toward Syria are the statements of Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the coalition partner of the AK Party government. Bahçeli has recently positioned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan as a figure who could play a role in achieving regional peace. The aim behind these statements is nothing but the creation of a so-called “Kurdistan”, which is a “Second Israel” under Türkiye’s protection. The lack of a clear and firm response from President Erdoğan or the government to their coalition partner’s statements has emboldened the organizations aiming to divide Syria. They interpret this ambiguity as a sign that the Turkish government is not firmly committed to Syria’s territorial integrity.
In terms of Türkiye’s relations with regional countries, the Turkish government’s failure to take the necessary steps in Idlib and its silence on developments in Aleppo could lead to increased isolation in the region as the mistrust toward Türkiye grows. This is the case in Iran, Russia, Iraq, even in Gulf countries. Questions like “Is Türkiye surrendering to the US and Israel?” are likely to arise, causing long-lasting damage in Türkiye’s regional relations that will be difficult to repair.
If Türkiye becomes seen as an unreliable country and isolated, to face the threats not only in Syria, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus will be more difficult. And it will become more vulnerable to the US’s economic threats.
Clinging to departing planes
As for those celebrating HTS’s takeover of Aleppo, their hopes will ultimately be dashed. Israel has already failed in Gaza and Lebanon, being forced into a ceasefire. The US is losing to Russia in Ukraine and has failed to execute its plans against Iran. Both the US and Israel are facing economic challenges and losing their military dominance globally. Meanwhile, organizations representing a multipolar world, like BRICS and the SCO, are gaining strength, with even former US allies gravitating toward them.
Under these circumstances, the US and Israel could not reach their objective. And those involved in their endeavor are destined to fail too. Zelensky, the HTS, and the PKK/PYD will end defeated. Time will tell whether today’s celebrators of HTS’s takeover of Aleppo will try to erase their enthusiastic remarks from the memories or as in Afghanistan, rush to flee the country by clinging to departing planes.