By Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein
I must confess that in my 44 years of involvement in international relations, I have never encountered a problem as complex to study and understand as the one linked to the recent events in Syria. I have consulted my usual sources in the region, and like never before, have I received different and even contradictory opinions among people who generally agree on the analysis.
I am amazed to observe colleagues who on Sunday, December 8, the day of the outcome of the events, already had finished opinions about what had happened, what was happening and what will happen in the future. I imagine that they have sources of information and the capacity for understanding that, I must say, I do not have.
Perhaps I have become so imbued with Chinese philosophy that I have begun to cultivate the gift of patience and caution. I always remember that, during an interview in the last century, the Chinese leader Zhou Enlai was asked his opinion on the French Revolution and he said that it was too recent to know. Although it was later known that he was actually referring to the events of the “French May” of 1968, the answer established the moderation with which historical facts should be analyzed.
In particular, in an event like this, in which so many and so dissimilar actors participate, who have such varied interests, which in turn have generated a multiplicity of variables, having a conclusive idea about the past, the present and the future that this event will generate is very difficult for me, when only three days have passed since the consummation of an impactful event for the local, regional and global scenarios.
I think that today, there are very few certainties and a lot of uncertainty. I will try to expose them so that everyone can draw their own conclusions. The main certainty is that this is a negative development for Syria, for the region and for the world. If we couple it with Israel’s actions since October 7 last year and the West’s attitude them, we can unambiguously feel its bankruptcy in ethical and moral terms.
Never as today, the capitalist system has so transparently manifested its true character and its proposal for the future of humanity. Exposing Netanyahu, the murderer of more than 17,000 children, and the “head slicer” Al Jolani as champions of democracy and freedom and as symbols of the path that must be followed, reveals where they want to take the world to. Venezuelans in particular, must note that the terrorist opposition and its leader María Machado have greeted both events as an expression of the path they would like for Venezuela, should they come to power.
Of course, the United States and even the UN have begun the process of “whitewashing” the terrorists. Now, there are bad terrorists (ISIS) and good ones (Al Qaeda). We already experienced that in Afghanistan when they themselves created Al Qaeda to fight the Soviet Union and then embarked for 20 years on a useless war in which they were defeated.
Some sources consulted directly in the region have pointed out to me that there are more questions than answers. They point out that Syria and the Syrian conflict were a drag on the axis of resistance. The benefit was only logistical. Hence, to say the overthrow of al-Assad has destroyed the resistance is a wish and an exaggeration spread by Western sources and Sunni monarchies. For Iran, sustaining Syria meant a little more than 700 million dollars a month, which the Islamic Republic distributed to pay salaries and services in Syria (more than 8 billion dollars a year that can now be used for other purposes.)
Questions
However, it is legitimate to ask: Why did al-Assad’s regime fall? What’s next? Why did the regime fall so quickly? Why didn’t Iran intervene to save al-Assad? Why didn’t Russia do it either? Why didn’t the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces intervene? Did Iran sell out al-Assad? There are many questions about the acceleration of events in Syria. I will try to give some clues: Why did al-Assad’s regime fall so quickly in such a short time? The answer is that the Syrian army did not fight in any battles in these final days, retreating easily, showing that it had no will to fight. Someone could say that the opposition was supported by Türkiye, Israel and the United States with various types of weapons. True, but the Syrian army could have held out for at least several days on each front. However, it was clear that the army was not interested in defending the cities and paid no attention to what was happening. This was the main reason for this rapid collapse.
Why didn’t Iran, Russia, and the Popular Mobilization Forces intervene? Iran was ready to save the regime and announced that it was ready to send forces to support al-Assad. Other organizations such as the Popular Mobilization Forces of Iraq and the rest of the resistance factions were also available, but you cannot fight in a country whose owners do not want to defend themselves. Iran could not be an alternative to the Syrian army. It was simply a supportive ally that cannot replace homeowners.
The same happened with Russia. It could not fight if the elements of the regime were not prepared to defend themselves. Why did all this happen? Bashar al-Assad miscalculated in the years after the defeat of armed opposition groups in 2018, failing to achieve national reconciliation, failing to ease tight security measures, and failing to use the lull to strengthen himself. Therefore, the Syrian people were not willing to defend him.
Chaos ahead
What will happen in Syria? Things will be quiet for a few days and then there will be chaos. Since terrorist groups are part of the force that overthrew the regime, they will try to impose their agenda on the ground, and this will lead to bloody conflicts and lead to the possibility of dividing Syria into Sunnis, Kurds, and Alawites, depending on their location.
Countries in the region and even outside will try to prevent this. They know the risk of “giving wings” to terrorists. The danger to West Asia and Europe is imminent, especially in the cases of Jordan and Iraq. It is assumed that everyone will work to eliminate these terrorist groups. Syria is likely to face a long cycle of violence, as it did earlier in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. If there are no rational forces among those who have taken power, (and there are none among those who hegemonize) and if they do not present a national discourse that reassures all components – which is unlikely – then Syria will be heading for a dark age that will last for years.
7-point-deal including Assad
An informed source revealed that a 7-point deal would lead Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to surrender the capital, Damascus, without any resistance. During the 72 hours prior to the early morning of December 8, private meetings were held in 3 Arab capitals that laid the foundations for an agreement sponsored by several countries. The regime had reached a stage of weakness in its ability to control the country, which was especially manifested after the continued collapses in Aleppo, Hama and Homs, which led to them agreeing – with al-Assad’s consent – to end the regime in a “less tragic way” and avoid a major bloodbath that could have profound repercussions throughout the region.
Negotiations took place between Russia, Iran, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar that allowed a final agreement to be reached, the result of which would be finalized on Tuesday, December 10, when power would be handed over to the opposition. But that did not happen in the face of the betrayal of the Arab monarchies and Türkiye who, seeing the weakness of al-Assad, ordered a strong offensive that took the army by surprise, which from then on acted in a disorganized way, causing the departure of the president 3 days before the date agreed in Doha. It is worth saying that these negotiations took place under the auspices of Russia and the United States. Hence the rumor that Putin and Trump had agreed, which has no basis, at least not known.
The most important points of the agreement were:
- Ensure a safe departure of al-Assad, his family and the pillars of his government to Abu Dhabi.
- Avoid the exposure of sacred religious shrines or religious and sectarian minorities.
- Preserving state institutions, the Syrian Prime Minister would continue to manage the government with the ministers, with Turkish guarantee.
- Not allowing ethnic cleansing operations, revolts or looting of institutions, and maintaining the army.
- Provide commitments to prevent any threat that would affect neighboring countries.
That is, al-Assad would leave Damascus under a political agreement not to attack it and go to an Arab country, stressing that all the capitals of the region knew of the zero hour of the regime’s collapse. The deal to topple Assad was the “best solution” to prevent Syria from falling into a never-ending war that could lead to difficult labyrinths. It is worth saying that Washington agreed to these “solutions” and was the one who pressured various internal and external parties to go ahead with them.
The decision was conveyed to Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Al Jalali who said he hoped a new era would prevail and that he would be in the Council of Ministers ready for any proceedings. The National Council of Transitional Government in Syria issued Declaration Number One in which it pledged its commitment to building a “free, just and democratic state” in which all citizens are equal without discrimination.
The hitherto opposition and now government would participate in governance as an alternative to terrorists. The unity and sovereignty of Syria and the protection of citizens regardless of their affiliations would be guaranteed. Work would be done to rebuild the State and its institutions on the basis of freedom, justice and work to achieve integral national interests. It also aimed to return refugees to their homes in safety and dignity.
Israel’s role
None of that happened and it was the terrorists who took power under the auspices of the Arab monarchies, Türkiye, the United States and Israel. The real scenario that has emerged since December 8 shows Israel in total debauchery in the face of the disappearance of the Syrian state. It remains to be seen how long the Zionist entity has the capacity to sustain this new war effort.
Obviously, once its mission to wipe out the infrastructure and weaponry of the Syrian armed forces is completed, the Israeli army will return to its other strategic objective: to destroy Palestine and Lebanon. Although Netanyahu and Al Jolani were allies in the fight against al-Assad, once Assad is gone, it remains to be seen what their relations take. (In a later article we will assess the situation in Israel and the resistance after the latest events.
Preliminary facts
In these three days, some facts have emerged that should continue to be observed because it is not yet known what will emanate from them:
- Russia is negotiating its bases in Syria (one naval and one air) essential for its deployment in the Mediterranean and on the southern flank of its strategic defense device. It is known that it has communication and is talking to all the participating forces of the government.
- There are already contradictions between the armed groups that took power. It is worth saying that in addition to the former Syrian opposition, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army (SNA); the anti-Turkish Kurds supported by the United States grouped in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist organization linked to Al Qaeda, which are the ones that have hegemonized power. All of them are enemies of each other and will now face the Islamic State (ISIS) that did not participate in the anti-Assad alliance.
- Iran is also in negotiations with the new government to delineate the framework of their relations. It is false that Iran’s embassy in Damascus was stormed and burned. Today it has already begun to function and execute its diplomatic and consular functions.
- It remains to be seen how the new government assumes its relations with Israel, which has totally destroyed the country’s military strength and infrastructure and has occupied part of its territory backed by the United States.
- For Syria’s allies, this has been a major political and geopolitical blow, as well as a painful one, but to assume that this leads to strategic weakness is false. Russia has released a large amount of weapons, aircraft and senior officers that it had engaged in the fight against terrorism and that it will now be able to transfer to Ukraine to successfully and definitively end that conflict.
- The new Syrian government will have to confront the threat from Israel from the south, the pro-Turkish SNA in the northwest, the U.S.-backed Kurds who have ended up occupying all the country’s oil wells, and the ISIS insurgency.
- Maybe we will be surprised, and Al Jolani will have to end up turning to Russia and Iran to face so many threats.
- Al Jolani will have to negotiate with Türkiye about the occupation of Syrian territory by Erdogan’s army. He will also have to discuss with the Ottoman leader how to manage his interest in destroying the Kurds protected by the United States
- Washington will continue in its work of destroying nation states and drawing up a “new map of the Middle East,” an objective set during the George W. Bush administration, sinisterly elaborated by Condoleezza Rice and auspiciously supported by both Republican and Democratic administrations for almost 25 years. It is a question of not having nation states, but sectarian territories, weak and in permanent struggle with their neighbors. This is being done through what Samuel Huntington called the “war of civilizations.” It achieved it in Libya, also in Iraq and now in Syria, in Lebanon it has existed for 50 years. Its ultimate goal is to create a Kurdish state that operates as a new Israel in the region, with the difference that it will exist in oil-rich territory. In fact, the occupation of Syrian oil wells by the Kurds guarantees a secure supply of energy for Israel.
- On the other hand, the overthrow of the al-Assad regime makes it possible to complete the gas pipeline from Qatar, through Saudi Arabia and Syria to Türkiye and from there to Europe, creating an important alternative for the supply of the Old Continent that will no longer need its energy to transit by sea through the Persian Gulf. across the Red Sea and the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea. Likewise, this pipeline is an option to no longer depend on gas from Russia.