By Orçun Göktürk, Beijing / China
For 13 years, the Assad leadership in Syria has resisted an imperialist, reactionary, and separatist war. Last month, however, Assad’s government collapsed following the advance of HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), first to Aleppo and then to Damascus.
The new situation in Syria poses a significant threat to China, as well as to regional countries resisting the US aggression. Economically, China had investments in the region, particularly in Tartus and Latakia, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Perhaps even more critical than economic concerns is the presence of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), which operates alongside HTS. According to some reports, this terrorist group, which consists of up to 20,000 individuals including families, poses a significant security risk to China.
A historic visit after 20 years
Let us go back to 2023. The 19th Asian Games held in China’s “heavenly city” of Hangzhou had a notable guest: Bashar al-Assad. This visit marked Assad’s first trip to China in nearly 20 years since 2004. Following his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the two countries announced the establishment of a “China-Syria Strategic Partnership,” with Xi emphasizing a political resolution to the Syrian crisis “under Syrian leadership and ownership.”
Assad’s return flight from China served as a clear indicator of regional alliances. The plane carrying Bashar al-Assad and his wife entered Pakistani airspace on its way back and was escorted to Karachi by Pakistan’s J-10 fighter jets. After leaving Pakistani airspace, the plane headed over the Arabian Sea, where Iranian fighter jets escorted it toward the Persian Gulf. From there, Saudi Arabian fighter jets accompanied Assad’s plane to the Jordanian border. Finally, Russian fighter jets escorted the plane as it entered Syrian airspace, ensuring a safe landing at Damascus Airport.
China, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia – during Assad’s nearly 6,000-kilometer flight from one end of Asia to the other, a “defense alliance in the air” was formed to ensure the safe return of the Syrian leader to Damascus.
Historical ties between China and Syria
Let’s take a step further back. Syria was one of the first countries to recognize the People’s Republic of China. This has granted Syria a “special place” in the memory of the Communist Party leadership and the Chinese people. During Assad’s visit, Chinese media highlighted the historical ties between Syria and China, emphasizing that Syria recognized China as early as 1956. Syrian-Chinese relations were frequently referenced in newspaper and television reports, and the Syrian Arab Republic was described as an “old friend.”
During the meetings in Hangzhou, Xi Jinping stated:
“China opposes external interference and unilateral coercion targeting Syria and supports Syria’s reconstruction. China is willing to strengthen cooperation with Syria through the Belt and Road Initiative.”
And Xi added:
“China will support Syria in rebuilding, enhancing its capacity to fight terrorism, and promoting a political solution to the Syrian issue based on the principles of ‘Syrian leadership and Syrian ownership.’”
After Assad’s downfall, these words of Xi are, of course, being questioned.
The US disrupts China’s West Asia strategy
While China was investing in Syria’s reconstruction and expanding its regional presence, the advance of HTS into Damascus and Assad’s downfall will inevitably force China to suspend these objectives.
China’s investments in Syria prioritized the ports of Tartus and Latakia. These ports hold strategic importance due to their proximity to key container hubs integral to the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Piraeus in Greece, Haifa in Israel, and Tripoli in Lebanon.
Some experts argue that after the fall of Damascus, China’s influence in the region, which is primarily based on “economic power,” is inherently limited. Others emphasize that the US-Israel axis has also undermined Beijing’s leadership role in the Global South through organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
East Turkestan separatists
Another major concern for China is the Turkistan Islamic Party, which operates within HTS and is recognized by the United Nations as a terrorist organization. In 2017, Syria’s Ambassador to China, Imad Mustafa, stated that there were as many as 5,000 Uyghur militants in Syria.
The East Turkestan separatists, under the leadership of Hasan Mahsum (also known as Abu Muhammad al-Turkistani), established the Turkistan Islamic Party in Pakistan, with its base in Afghanistan. After Hasan Mahsum was killed in a Pakistani military operation in 1998, the group faced a leadership crisis but was later consolidated during the US invasion of Iraq.
By 2013, the group had moved its militants to Syria, mainly to the Idlib region, where it became part of HTS (formerly known as al-Nusra) under the name “Turkistan Brigades” (Katibat Turkistani). Following Assad’s downfall in December, the group released a video pledging to continue their “jihad” in China’s Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, including cities such as Kashgar, Aksu, and the capital city Urumqi. HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolanistated, “The Turkistan Islamic Party has been in Syria for severel years and has never participated in any actions threatening the outside world.”
A moment of decision for China
China’s “wait-and-see” strategy, epitomized by Deng Xiaoping’s principle of “prioritizing quiet development,” still holds significant influence. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, however, Beijing has taken on a more active role, presenting itself as a political and financial alternative to the Western system for the developing world.
Nevertheless, the US strategy of escalating tensions in Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, combined with its encirclement of China through traditional Asian allies like Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and South Korea, limits China’s ability to adopt a more active foreign policy stance.
Therefore, China stands at a crossroads where it needs to change its structural strategy in foreign policy, as the fall of figures like Gaddafi or Assad also contributes to China’s encirclement. China has much to learn from Syria in its foreign policy, starting with the opportunity to revise its traditional ‘wait-and-see’ or ‘economy-first’ approach to International Relations.