By Fikret Akfırat
In the report prepared by the committee established by the Israeli government to outline strategic plans for the next decade, there is an assessment that stands out: “Israel must prepare for a potential war with Türkiye”.
The committee was formed in August of last year under the leadership of former National Security Council Chairman Jacob Nagel and including representatives from the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense, and other relevant institutions. The committee submitted its report to the Prime Minister’s Office on January 6.
In sum, the report emphasizes the following points regarding Türkiye:
– Türkiye’s ambition to reclaim its influence during the Ottoman Empire might escalate tensions with Israel and potentially lead to direct conflict.
– There is risk that Syrian groups might form alliances with Türkiye, posing a new and significant threat to Israel’s security.
Based on these points, the report states that a Syria with Turkish influence poses a threat to Israel and that “The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the threat from Iran”.
Fundamental changes and new threats
The report should be regarded as a document reflecting Israel’s strategic threat assessment and planning. Commenting on the report, Netanyahu said: “We are witnessing profound changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new powers are emerging in the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected circumstances. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future”.
In this context, the report demands strengthening Israel’s air defense capabilities, acquiring new fighter jets, constructing a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley and increasing the defense budget.
Tactical and strategic gains
In 2019, former Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen stated during a meeting with the intelligence agencies of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, “Iran’s power is fragile, Türkiye is the real threat”. Similarly, the September 16, 2021, report by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) was titled, “Türkiye as a Major Challenge for Israel (and its Neighbors) in the 21st Century”. Also, Israel’s institutions have been emphasizing the need to prepare for a potential conflict with Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean. Based on these threat assessments, Israel has built alliances with Greece and Southern Cyprus and has supported terrorist organizations, particularly the PKK, against Türkiye. In other words, Israel’s perception of Türkiye as a “strategic threat” is not new. What is new is that the fall of the Assad regime has not altered Israel’s this strategic assessment. On the contrary, as noted in the Nagel report, the new situation in Syria has increased the likelihood of direct conflict between Türkiye and Israel.
Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel solidified its occupation of the Golan Heights and captured some new territories in Syria. Moreover, the diminishing influence of Iran in Syria was a large-scale gain for Israel. However, the Nagel report highlights that while Israel views these as tactical successes, it considers Türkiye the winner of the situation in Syria on the strategic level.
Neo-cons and Israel
Israel’s policies towards Türkiye should always be read together with those of the neo-cons. Few days before Donald Trump takes office, neo-cons are yelling: “Do not withdraw American troops from Syria!” The strongholds of pro-Israelis, organizations such as CFR, WINEP, FDD, MEI and AEI, publish articles arguing that Washington must not abandon its support for the PKK. Some claim that the threat posed by ISIS persists, others argue that the new Syrian administration isn’t reliable. Neo-cons, who openly oppose to Trump, also use their capacity within the state to create conditions under which Washington could not withdraw its troops from Syria.
The neo-cons’ top priority in West Asia has been ensuring Israel’s security. To this end, let alone withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Iraq, they advocate for an increase in their number.
The Second Israel project
The Second Israel project, spearheaded by neo-cons, aims to fracture Türkiye, Iran, Syria and Iraq.
Although neo-cons had previously held significant influence within the state, they assumed key roles during the George H. W. Bush administration. Then they seized control during the George W. Bush administration with an unnamed coup. They maintained their influence during the Obama administration, lost power during Trump’s first term, but only to regain with Biden’s presidency. Throughout this time, the neo-cons’ primary target has been neither Iran nor Syria, but Türkiye, as it was the only country that has the capacity and determination to oppose the Second Israel Project. Fethullah Gülen Terrorist Organization’s (FETÖ) coup attempt on 15th July 2016, economic plots, support for the PKK/YPG in Syria, the military build-up in Greece and Southern Cyprus: all this should be read within the aims of neo-cons.