By Daniel Rosas, Mexico City / Mexico
During his inauguration speech, US President Donald Trump made reference to “manifest destiny” – that ideology that makes people believe that by divine design, they can and must expand – and which, added to the Monroe Doctrine (America for Americans), has set off alarm bells worldwide.
Particularly in Mexico, the overflight of US military intelligence drones in the area bordering Mexican airspace; the designation of six Mexican cartels as “terrorist groups”; and the possibility that a Mexican drug trafficker – detained in the United States – faces the death penalty (prohibited in Mexico) can change the binational relationship.
The binational relationship
Almost five months have passed since Claudia Sheinbaum became the Mexican president and a month has passed since Donald Trump became president of the United States.
Since then, Mexico began the “Northern Border” operation, which as of February 25 had achieved the arrest of 819 people, the confiscation of 779 weapons and 11,881 kilograms of drugs, including 54 kilograms of fentanyl. In other police operations, massive drug seizures and the arrest of cartel members have been achieved. In exchange, Mexico has achieved a “pause” in the imposition of tariffs on exports, announced by Donald Trump.
But the new US government seems to want more. It was recently confirmed that 6 Mexican cartels will be considered “terrorists”. Some analysts pointed out that this would allow the Trump administration to send military personnel or artillery vehicles to Mexico. Even the magnate and advisor to the US government, Elon Musk, after the designation, wrote in his “x” account: That means they’re eligible for drone strikes.
A few days before, on social networks and Mexican media, the overflight of drones in the vicinity of Mexican airspace was reported. The Minister of Defense, Ricardo Trevilla, denied espionage work and assured that these overflights are at the request of the Mexican government. “It is part of coordination and cooperation without subordination,” said President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Regarding the possibility of a US military intervention against the Mexican cartels, so far it has not happened. On the contrary, in various events, including Flag Day (last February 24), President Sheinbaum reiterated her message: Non-intervention and respect for Mexican sovereignty.
Mayo Zambada
Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada is considered one of the main Mexican drug traffickers, perhaps only below Joaquín “el Chapo” Guzmán with whom he founded the Sinaloa cartel. That’s why to capture him, the United States government had to convince one of “El Chapo’s” sons to betray him. Joaquín Guzmán López delivered him through deception.
The Mexican government – whose president was then Andrés Manuel López Obrador – was not informed of that operation. On several occasions, Mexico has asked the United States for explanations. Since Zambada was handed over to the Americans, the Mexican government has requested his extradition four times; there has been no response, according to the Mexican Prosecutor’s Office.
For his part, Ismael Zambada sent a letter to the Mexican Foreign Ministry, in which he requests to be extradited to Mexico to avoid a possible death sentence in the United States; He claims that “he was kidnapped.” The Mexican government also considers that it was a kidnapping and will provide consular assistance.
But President Sheinbaum made it clear that it is not about defending the drug trafficker, but rather enforcing the international consular protection treaties to which anyone is entitled, including “el Mayo” Zambada.
The detained and the broken relationships
Mexico currently has broken relations with Ecuador, after the invasion of Daniel Noboa’s government at the Mexican embassy in Quito, in April 2024. In that police operation, Ecuador detained former Ecuadorian vice president Jorge Glas, to whom Mexico had granted asylum status.
In 2007, French citizen Florence Cassez was accused of kidnapping and later released, after it was proven that there were human rights violations in her trial. Due to the case, Mexico also broke relations with France.
It now seems very unlikely that relations between Mexico and the United States will be affected by the kidnapping or detention of Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada. But it could happen if Donald Trump’s administration even attempts an intervention on Mexican soil; although the president has recognized the shared concern of combating drug trafficking to the United States.
Since drug trafficking is a cross-border problem, cooperation between countries is necessary. In fact, security teams from both countries met in Washington.”
How will this meeting materialize in concrete actions? That remains to be seen.