By Ali Mercan
The German elections have provided concrete evidence of the growing global phenomenon we have been describing as “the decline of the Atlantic and the rise of Eurasia”. Movements of anti-imperialism, national sovereignty and independence have been gaining momentum across Asia, Africa, and South America. What the German elections indicate that this momentum is now gaining a new dimension at very heart of imperialist centers, Europe itself.
The election on February 23, did more than just determine potential coalition formations, it fundamentally altered the political trajectory of the country. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), one of the founding pillars of the Federal Republic of Germany, had its most significant decline in history. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), nationalist party established in 2013, doubled its vote share compared to the previous elections. AfD not only became the second-largest party in the country but also emerged as the leading party in all eastern German states. The Greens, a part of the governing coalition with the SPD, also saw major losses. Similarly, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which had been a coalition partner until the government collapsed, failed to surpass the 5% electoral threshold with a dramatic decline in votes. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU-CSU) emerged as the leading party increasing its vote share. The Left Party (Die Linke) increase its votes too and entered the parliament. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly missed the 5% threshold.
Here are the vote shares and changes compared to previous elections:
CDU-CSU: 28.52% (+4.9)
AfD: 20.80% (+9.2)
SPD: 16.41% (-9.7)
Greens: 11.61% (-1.3)
Left Party: 8.5% (+3.6)
BSW: 4.97% (first-time participant)
FDP: 4.33% (-6.6)
One more note: 19 candidates of Turkish origin got a seat in the parliament.
Observers who analyzed the election dynamics based on concrete developments reached a clear conclusion: “This election has been shaped by the influence of nationalist parties”. Instead of focusing on their own policies and solutions, establishment parties spent much of their campaign attacking the AfD, labeling it as “racist”, “Nazi” and “fascist”, and vowed never to form a coalition with them under any circumstances. Multiple legal efforts were launched to ban the party. However, the outcome was that AfD doubled its vote share and gained its level of political influence.
Collapse of the Atlanticist coalition
Despite the failure and breakdown of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition government, voter turnout reached 83.5%, significantly higher than the previous election’s 76.4%.
The FDP recorded the worst electoral performance in its history. FDP leader Christian Lindner and Secretary General Marco Buschmann announced their resignations. Lindner stepped away from politics entirely.
The SPD has been reduced to a party with little influence, and analysts say that the Greens face an uncertain future. Party leader Robert Habeck has already declared that he will not take on any leadership roles. Once known for its leftist stance during the 68 Movement, the Greens have transformed into one of the most staunchly pro-American and anti-Russian parties and now losing its influence.
AfD’s co-chair Alice Weidel declared, “AfD is now a party of the people”. In a Germany struggling to find its geopolitical footing among major global powers, the high voter turnout can be interpreted as a sign of growing nationalism offering a sense of direction and hope. Germany’s prominent newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) analyzed the votes for the AfD: Supporters are believers, working-class and unemployed.
Rapid rise of anti-Russia policy after Merkel
Before the tripartite coalition government led by Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel served as Germany’s Chancellor for 16 years in four consecutive terms. Her tenure was marked by relative stability and under her leadership, Germany pursued an increasingly independent European policy that has a certain stance against the US hegemony. More importantly, with the backing of Vladimir Putin, Germany was on track to become a major hub for gas and energy. To this end, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were constructed, positioning Germany at the center of Russian-European energy relations. Trade between Russia and Germany improved during this period.
Helmut Schmidt, the chancellor between 1982-1998, had foreseen the global rise of Asia and analyzed this shift in his book “Die Mächte der Zukunft: Gewinner und Verlierer in der Welt von morgen”. Similarly, Gerhard Schröder, the chancellor between 1998-2005, maintained a close relationship with Russia. He became an executive at Gazprom after leaving office. Merkel continued this approach.
However, after Merkel, the SPD-Green-FDP coalition abandoned this course entirely and aligned Germany with Atlanticist hegemony. And other EU states followed Germany. The coalition pursued an anti-Russian agenda, celebrated sabotage attacks on gas pipelines. Germany became the leading enforcer of US-led sanctions on Russia. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Greens even went so far as to declare: “We must ruin Russia” (“Russland ruinieren”).
The coalition also supported Ukraine, pledging to aid Kyiv with unlimited resources and even adopting slogans like “We stand together until the last Ukrainian”. However, these aggressive policies ultimately backfired and the Scholz-led coalition collapsed. The electoral defeat of all three coalition parties, SPD, Greens and FDP, underscored how deeply out of touch they had been with both the interests of the German public and the state.
The nationalist wave will continue to rise
In the wake of the elections, the country now stands at a crossroads: Will it continue the Scholz coalition’s hostile policies toward Russia and, by extension, Eurasia, or will it change the course? The ongoing insistence on providing aid to Ukraine suggests that the government may persist with this self-destructive strategy. As long as Germany continues its anti-Russian policies, nationalism will keep rising.
According to Article 39, Section 2 of the German Constitution, the newly elected Federal Parliament (Bundestag) must convene within 30 days after the election. This means the first session must take place by March 25 at the latest. Then the new Chancellor will be determined for the four-year term of the new government. Until then, Olaf Scholz will remain in office.
CDU leader and chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said that a new government could be formed by Easter which falls between late March and late April. One of the potential coalition scenarios is a CDU-SPD partnership, which is numerically possible. However, given the catastrophic collapse of the previous SPD-led coalition, there is widespread skepticism about whether the SPD would be a desirable partner. During the election campaign, there was intense propaganda against Merz like “you can’t make a coalition with nationalists”. The so-called “cradle of democracy” has openly declared that it will, in principle, refuse to form a coalition with the second-largest party in the elections. This stance is another example of why the Western political system is in decline. In eastern Germany, the AfD has already become the first party. Regardless of whether they have a role in the next government, the AfD is set to become the primary opposition force in German politics.
Implications for Türkiye
The Turkish nation was founded on a nationalist program, achieving independence through an anti-imperialist struggle that led to the establishment of the Republic of Türkiye. Any movement that opposes imperialism and global hegemony serves the interests of Türkiye and Eurasian countries.
Europe’s insistence on Atlanticist policies cannot hold up against the rise of nationalism. This shift must be understood. However, some political and media circles in Türkiye have echoed Atlanticist narratives, labeling the nationalist movement in Germany as “racist”, “fascist” and “far-right”. The parties leading anti-nationalist campaigns in Germany are the same ones that support PKK and Fethullah Gülen Terrorist Organization (FETÖ), defend Zionist war crimes, push for unconditional military aid to Ukraine. Turkish politicians who side with these Atlanticist policies under the illusion of joining the EU are acting against both Türkiye’s and Germany’s interests. In this context, President Erdoğan’s invitation to Zelensky and his clear stance against Russia can be seen as a move that goes against the interests of both Türkiye and Europe.
The global political landscape is undergoing a major shift, with the decline of US. -led unipolar dominance and the rise of Eurasia. The growing wave of nationalism in the German election is a reflection of this transformation. Trump’s “turning inwards” and “America First” policy reflect this larger global transformation The Trump administration’s favorable stance towards German nationalists indicate that he tries position himself in line with this transformation.
The rise of nationalist parties in Germany and Europe is accelerating the process of “Eurasia” taking shape in Europe. Europe becoming a part of Eurasia and embracing the emergence of a new Asia-centric world order will pave the way for a more unified global system.