By Kamil Onüçlüler, from London / United Kingdom
The “UK foreign policy in a changing world” is the title of the latest Horizon Scanning report published on the 7th of February 2025. Horizon Scanning (HS) can be simply described as a tool of the U.K government to help support strategy development, policy making and operational delivery.
The U.K Government use many external experts. They come from think tanks like the Chatham House and similar institutions and universities. Written by two experts, Xavier McNally and Simon Brawley, it was posted on the U.K Government site “U.K Parliament”..
This post is an important indication of where the U.K government might head in their latest foreign policy. It is short and sharp. We must also point out that these try to be above the party politics.
The first question, Horizon Scanning is trying to answer: “What does the future hold for alliances such as NATO and AUKUS, and how can the U.K enhance its reputation and influence in the world?” They are basing their HS to the main U.K foreign policy position document called the “Integrated Review (”IR”) dated the March 2021 (IR21) and also to an updated version called the “Refresh” which was released on the March 2023 (IR23) in response to the significant world events, such what is happening in the Ukraine and Russia. (Sources: Mills, C. et al. Integrated Review 2021: Summary, House of Commons Library. Cabinet Office 2023. & Integrated Review Refresh 2023: Responding to a more contested and volatile world). The Integrated Review combines previously separate reviews into foreign policy, defense, national security and international development, such as the National Security Strategy and the Strategic Defence and Security Review into one, making it the largest review of its kind carried out by a UK government since the Cold War. These reviews generally don’t get issued frequently but this last time it was refreshed substantially quickly after only two years.
What is on the Horizon?
Our Horizon Scanners make this observation in the Overview of their report: “The Refresh said that the ‘transition into a multipolar, fragmented and contested world has happened more quickly and definitively than anticipated’”. One contributor to the horizon scan said that the “The IR23 Refresh had a greater focus on cooperation with Europe and ‘middle-ground powers’ than the Integrated Review.” They underscored issues such as “The U.K Government stated in IR2021 that U.K foreign policy will be shaped by ‘a commitment to universal human rights, the rule of law, free speech, fairness, and equality’” and “In March 2021 the Ministry of Defence highlighted strategic threats to U.K interests leading up to 2030, including maintaining alliances, reacting to changes in geopolitical and economic centres, and keeping up with rapid technological change and military modernisation” which are almost stock fare in every report and does not necessarily help scan the horizon for the U.K government officials but looks good on paper.
Having said that the Integrated Reviews and their Refreshes as well as the Horizon Scannings are very important documents to understand the U.K Government’s strategic mind and foreign policy objectives, several important changes took place after the Integrated Review and the Refresh before the Horizon Scanning, we are examining. One of these was the change in the government of the U.S.A by the election of the President Donald Trump and the other was a new configuration in Palestine which is not mentioned in the HS which is strange.
The other sudden significant declaration made by the Labor Government of the Prime Minister Keir Starmer just before going to the U.S.A to meet with the President at a much-publicized press conference was increasing the military spending to 2.5 % of GNP by cutting the foreign aid budget. The timing seemed to be done as if to appease the President.
Another important event took place was that the U.S has twice sided with Russia in votes at the United Nations. First, the U.S opposed a European resolution condemning Moscow’s action and supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Then the U.S drafted and voted for a resolution at the U.N Security Council which called an end to the conflict to which the U.K and France abstained.
Very short review of the last four years
Since the Integrated Review in 2021 the U.K has made new agreements as like AUKUS, with Australia and the U.S, a Global Combat Air Program with Italy and Japan, and the Mineral Security Partnership with 14 countries and the EU. These were keeping with the IR 2021’s perspectives.
Moreover, the Labor Government initiated a Strategic Defence Review by the Department of Defense in July 2024. It is to be completed by the middle of 2025. Its main objective will be that “Defense” will become a central and integral part to the economic growth and prosperity, of the United Kingdom. The U.K joined the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) program, which is a joint defense project. Following this U.K Government, also wants to sign a UK-EU Security Pact.
The prediction following the IR 2021 that the UK foreign policy will start to focus more on the Indo-Pacific which became true. The IR 2021 policy was implemented by deploying the Carries Strike Group to the region to work with the “Five Eyes’” — U.K, U.S, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. In 2023, the U.K became the member to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade agreement since for U.K the shipping routes are vital to its economy. This was becoming a major aspect of the strategic national security planning of the U.K. The government of U.K saw the Chinese Communist Party as a security risk. But ironically as of November 2024 the realities of life forced the U.K Prime Minister to say that they would be pragmatic about China, and he sent his Chancellor of Exchequer Rachel Reeves to China. Academics from the Lau China Institute at King’s College London thought this was necessary.
Key uncertainties/unknowns
This subtitle is also taken from the Horizon Scanning. One of the writers thinks that the U.K lacks the resources to commit to the Indo-Pacific region of Asia extensively. The HS have concerns towards the new administration in Washington. HS think this could affect the .UK and U.S.A relations in uncertain and unknown ways. Especially on Ukraine and the trade tariffs. This type of concern was never seen in a U.K government document about U.S administration openly. There is something fundamentally new happening with the “special relations” between the U.K and the U.S. The Vice President of the U.S told off the Europeans in a speech for limiting free speech and supported the opposition parties that deemed extreme by the ruling governments in the European capitals. Some said even this is a good reason for the new White House not to support NATO. Elon Musk who is now an important member of the Trump cabinet also supported the opposition in the U.K and constantly criticized the governing Labor government on various U.K domestic affairs as well as the lack of freedom of speech. All these and many other cracks are appearing in the Atlantic alliance showing the way to a multipolar world.
As we know from history these two countries have a very long history together. In fact, one was the colony of the other. Since the Great War they have been allies in many fronts. Their economies and military industrial complexes are integrated as well as their markets but inevitably there was always some competition between these two capitalist and imperialist countries. Various interest groups and many multinational companies lobby each government, so it is sometimes not clear who is who.
The Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he will not choose between Europe and the U.S, but his government is seeking ways to derail the peace initiative with the help of the European leaders. How successful this will be? We shall see in near future. As this article is being written, the U.S is imposing 25% tariffs on the aluminum imports to U.S from U.K. When asked about this prospect by the press, the PM Starmer said, he “will not retaliate immediately. He must have had in mind a famous quotation by Winston S. Churchill: “It is always an error in diplomacy to press a matter when it is quite clear that no further progress is to be made.”