By Mehmet Enes Beşer
The recent formalization of a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea marks a significant shift in East Asia’s geopolitical dynamics. This alliance, encompassing mutual defense commitments and extensive military cooperation, introduces new complexities to the regional security landscape, particularly concerning Japan’s strategic interests. The deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian operations in Ukraine exemplifies the depth of this partnership, raising critical questions about its implications for Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy, which seeks to promote a rules-based international order and ensure regional stability, faces unprecedented challenges in light of the Moscow-Pyongyang alliance. This development necessitates a thorough reassessment of Japan’s defense posture, diplomatic engagements, and alliance structures to effectively navigate the evolving security environment.
This article examines the implications of the Russia-North Korea partnership on Japan’s security and explores potential strategic adjustments from a Eurasian perspective, considering the broader geopolitical shifts influencing the region.
Strengthening Military Ties
In June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un convened in Pyongyang to sign the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This landmark agreement signifies a profound shift in the geopolitical landscape, marking one of the most robust alliances between the two nations since the Cold War era. The treaty encompasses a broad spectrum of cooperative endeavors, including political alignment, economic collaboration, and, notably, mutual defense commitments. A pivotal component of the treaty is the mutual defence clause, stipulating that an armed attack on one signatory obligates the other to provide immediate military assistance. This clause effectively extends Russia’s strategic deterrence capabilities to encompass North Korea, thereby altering the security dynamics of the region.
The treaty’s provisions extend beyond defense, encompassing collaborative efforts in trade, investment, science, technology, and energy. This multifaceted approach not only strengthens bilateral relations but also enhances both nations’ capacities to counter external pressures and sanctions.
In the months following the treaty’s ratification, the alliance’s military dimension became increasingly evident. In October 2024, reports emerged that North Korea had deployed approximately 1,500 special operations forces to Russia, ostensibly to support Russian military endeavors. This deployment marked a significant escalation in North Korea’s involvement in global conflicts, reflecting a willingness to project military power beyond its borders.
By February 2025, the scale of North Korean involvement had expanded substantially. Estimates indicated that up to 10,000 North Korean troops were operating in the Russian region of Kursk, actively participating in combat operations against Ukrainian forces. This development underscored the depth of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang and highlighted the tangible outcomes of their strategic partnership.
The alliance also facilitated technological and tactical exchanges. North Korean military personnel received training in advanced drone operations from Russian forces, leading to directives from Kim Jong Un to commence mass production of attack drones. This initiative aims to bolster North Korea’s offensive capabilities, drawing directly from combat experiences and tactics employed in the Ukrainian conflict.
High-level visits further cemented this burgeoning military relationship. In December 2024, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited Pyongyang for discussions with North Korean military and political leaders. These talks focused on enhancing strategic coordination and underscored the mutual commitment to supporting each other defense objectives.
The Moscow-Pyongyang partnership represents a significant realignment in regional security arrangements. The mutual defense treaty and subsequent military collaborations have not only strengthened bilateral ties but also introduced new complexities onto the strategic calculations of neighboring countries, particularly Japan. As this alliance continues to evolve, its implications for the Indo-Pacific region warrant close scrutiny and proactive engagement from all affected stakeholders.
Implications for Japan’s Security
The burgeoning alliance between Russia and North Korea presents multifaceted challenges to Japan’s national security, necessitating a comprehensive reassessment of its defense and diplomatic strategies.
The deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang introduces new security threats to Japan. The potential transfer of advanced Russian military technologies to North Korea, inccluding precision-guided munitions and missile systems, could significantly bolster Pyongyang’s offensive capabilities. Such advancements may enable North Korea to conduct more precise and formidable strikes, thereby escalating the threat level to Japan and its regional allies.
Furthermore, North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russian operations in Ukraine provides its military with invaluable combat experience. This exposure to modern warfare tactics and high-technology weapons, such as drones, could enhance North Korea’s military proficiency. The acquisition of practical combat experience is particularly concerning for Japan, whose Self-Defense Forces, despite their advanced training, lack recent battlefield experience.
The extension of Russia’s nuclear umbrella over North Korea complicates the strategic calculus in Northeast Asia. This development may embolden Pyongyang to adopt more aggressive postures, relying on Russian support to deter retaliatory actions. Such a shift could destabilize the existing balance of power and undermine efforts toward denuclearization in the region.
The Russia-North Korea alliance necessitates a reevaluation of Japan’s defense posture, particularly concerning its northern territories. The possibility of coordinated military actions by Russia and North Korea raises concerns about the security of these regions. Japan must consider enhancing its defensive capabilities to deter potential incursions and protect its territorial integrity.
Japan’s alignment with Western nations in imposing sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine has strained Tokyo-Moscow relations. The Russia-North Korea partnership adds complexity to this dynamic, as Japan must navigate the challenges of addressing North Korean provocations while managing deteriorating relations with Russia. This situation could limit Japan’s diplomatic options and economic engagements in the region.
The alliance between Russia and North Korea has broader implications for regional security dynamics. It may prompt neighboring countries, including China and South Korea, to adjust their military strategies and defense expenditures. This could lead to an arms race in the region, further destabilizing the security environment and complicating Japan’s efforts to promote peace and stability.
Challenges to Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
The burgeoning alliance between Russia and North Korea introduces complex challenges to Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy, which is predicated on promoting a rules-based international order, ensuring maritime security, and fostering regional stability. This partnership necessitates a critical reassessment of Japan’s strategic approach in the region.
The Russia-North Korea alliance poses a direct challenge to the rules-based order that underpins the FOIP strategy. North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russian military operations in Ukraine signifies a blatant disregard for international norms and sovereignty principles. Such actions undermine the foundational tenets of the FOIP, compelling Japan to address these violations within its strategic framework.
The strengthening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang complicate Japan’s diplomatic efforts in the region. Japan’s endeavors to engage Russia on territorial disputes, such as the Northern Territories issue, is further hampered by Russia’s alignment with North Korea. This development necessitates a recalibration of Japan’s diplomatic strategies to effectively address the intertwined challenges posed by both nations.
The potential formation of a trilateral axis comprising Russia, China, and North Korea presents a formidable challenge to Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The “no limits” strategic partnership between Russia and China, coupled with North Korea’s alignment, could serve as a force multiplier in regional conflicts, affecting areas such as the Kuril Islands, the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, South Korea, and the South China Sea. This nexus necessitates that Japan reassess its strategic priorities and alliances to effectively counterbalance this tripartite alignment.
Regional Responses and Strategic Adjustments
The deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea has prompted significant strategic recalibrations across the Indo-Pacific region. Nations are reassessing their defense postures, diplomatic engagements, and multilateral collaborations to address the emerging security challenges.
Japan has expressed serious concern over North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia, viewing it as a direct threat to its national security. In response, Japan has taken several measures to bolster its defense capabilities and international partnerships.
- Enhanced Defense Initiatives: Japan is augmenting its defense posture by increasing the number of Aegis-equipped destroyers from eight to ten and introducing two Aegis system-equipped vessels (ASEV) dedicated to ballistic missile defense operations. This expansion aims to enhance Japan’s maritime security and missile interception capabilities.
- NATO Engagement: In a historic move, Japan inaugurated an independent mission to NATO, reflecting a commitment to deepen cooperation with Western allies amid escalating regional tensions involving Russia and North Korea.
- EU Partnership: Japan and the European Union have established a security and defense partnership, marking the first such agreement between the EU and an Indo-Pacific nation. This partnership encompasses joint military exercises, defense industry collaboration, and intelligence sharing to address shared security concerns.
South Korea is also reevaluatin its defense policies in light of North Korea’s actions. Traditionally refraining from supplying lethal aid to conflict zones, South Korea is now considering providing arms to Ukraine, signaling a significant policy shift. This reconsideration underscores Seoul’s commitment to countering North Korea’s military provocations and supporting global security efforts.
The United States, Japan, and South Korea have intensified their trilateral cooperation to address the challenges posed by the Russia-North Korea alliance. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, leaders from the three nations reaffirmed their commitment to joint military exercises and strategic coordination to counter regional threats. This collaboration underscores a unified stance against provocations and highlights the importance of collective security measures.
NATO has been deepening its engagement with Indo-Pacific partners, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. This collaboration aims to address shared security challenges, such as those arising from the Russia-North Korea partnership, and to promote stability in the region. Enhanced cooperation includes strategic communications and joint exercises to counter growing threats.
China’s response to the Russia-North Korea alliance has been notably reserved. While officially maintaining a stance of non-interference, reports suggest that China is increasingly uneasy about North Korea’s growing cooperation with Russia, especially following North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Russia in its conflict in Ukraine. This ambivalence reflects China’s complex strategic calculations, balancing its relationships wit both Russia and North Korea against its broader regional interests.
Conclusion
The evolving partnership between Russia and North Korea signifies a pivotal shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Japan’s strategic positioning. From a Eurasian perspective, it is essential to recognize that this alliance is not merely a reactionary measure but a strategic endeavor aimed at fostering a multipolar world order that diminishes Western hegemony.
Japan’s traditional alignment with Western powers, particularly the United States, has been the cornerstone of its foreign policy. However, the deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang necessitate a reevaluation of this stance. By diversifying its diplomatic and economic engagements, Japan can mitigate the risks associated with over-reliance on a single bloc. Engaging constructively with Russia and North Korea could open avenues for dialogue, reduce regional tensions, and promote stability.
Moreover, the emphasis on a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy should be balanced with the realities of an emerging Eurasian framework. Acknowledging the interconnectedness of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters, as evidenced by North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine, underscores the need for Japan to adopt a more nuanced approach that considers the strategic interests of its neighbors.
In this context, Japan’s proactive engagement in regional multilateral platforms, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), could enhance its influence and contribute to shaping a more inclusive security architecture. Such participation would not only diversify Japan’s strategic partnerships but also align with the broader trend of Eurasian integration.
In conclusion, the Russia-North Korea alliance challenges Japan to reassess its strategic priorities. By adopting a more balanced and inclusive foreign policy that embraces Eurasian dynamics, Japan can navigate the complexities of the evolving geopolitical environment, ensuring its national interests are safeguarded while contributing to regional peace and stability.