UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan was guest to Türkiye’s Ulusal Kanal to evaluate the latest developments in the war between the US-Israeli and Iran.
We present the main points of Güzaltan’s evaluation, translated into English.
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Mr. Güzaltan, the US-Israeli strikes are ongoing, and Iran is continuing its retaliatory responses. Where are we now, what stage of the war are we at?
We are at a major breaking point. The US is seeking to suppress the global trend toward multipolarity on several fronts. Iran is one of the primary.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria effectively opened the gates of hell. It handed the US and Israel a major opportunity and room to maneuver. Consequently, following that up with an attack on Iran and Lebanon was expected. Both Iran and Hezbollah were well aware of this.
Iran responds in kind
However, everything we’ve seen since the start of this war shows that the US and Israel have hit the “Iran wall”. The Iranian military, the state, and the people are resisting the US-Israeli attack and responding in kind. Iran is defending itself through operations against Israeli-occupied territories and American bases across the region. Despite the loss of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the moral and psychological edge remains with Iran.
Iran hits one of the pillars that the US’ petrodollar empire is based on, the oil facilities, headquarters, and intelligence data centers of the oil corporations in the region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a global choke point for oil trade, has struck a direct blow to the petrodollar system and the US-controlled global financial web.
Secondly, with Hezbollah joining the war, a new front has opened for an already struggling Israel, which would require Israel to deploy its ground forces.
Weakening and destabilization of Gulf states
Thirdly, the weakening and destabilization of the Gulf states that align with the US and Israel to sustain their financial empire will, in the short to medium term, strengthen the hand of the forces fighting against imperialism and Zionism in the region.
All these developments are weakening the US and its regional outpost Israel.
Ground forces to Lebanon: suicide for Israel
What do you think the consequences will be for Israel with the involvement of Hezbollah in the war?
Despite the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the Israeli army’s massive technological edge, they still haven’t managed to bring Gaza under control. Now, Lebanon is a far more punishing terrain for Israel than Gaza. Hezbollah operates in a vast geography that allows for maneuverability, unlike Gaza, it isn’t a territory besieged on all four sides.
For Israel to send its ground forces into Lebanon would be to accelerate what is already a suicidal process for them. Remember the previous wars and conflict between Israel and Hezbollah: every single time, the Israeli military suffered heavy losses and was forced to retreat. This time will be no different.
Furthermore, in a war in Lebanon, Hezbollah would not be fighting in isolation. Iran is already conducting highly effective and powerful aerial operations.
British bases in Cyprus
One of the most talked-about topics in Türkiye right now is the developments at the British bases in the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus. Iran has carried out a drone strike there. What is your take on this?
Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus have stood by the US and Israel throughout the genocide in Gaza, and they go on with that policy. Iran is striking the British bases in Southern Cyprus because it’s clear that these bases are used for bombing Gaza, intelligence sharing, and strikes against Iran.
Iran is our neighbor for Türkiye for centuries. Today, that neighbor is under the attack of the US and Israel. Türkiye must demonstrate its support for Iran in a much more overt and concrete manner.
