By Serhat Latifoğlu
The strategy of imperialist US and genocidal Israel’s war against Iran – which started with an inhumane attack on a girls’ elementary school in Minab in Hormozgan province and claimed little girls’ lives – was built on the prediction that the shock effect of the strikes would quickly force Iran into submission. This strategy collapsed within days. In its retaliatory strikes using effective missiles and UAVs, Iran brought down Israel’s defenses. Also, different from the 12-day conflict last year, Iran struck US bases in the Gulf, causing severe damage.
This war is no longer merely a military clash. It has turned into a war of attrition with potentially far-reaching consequences for the global economy. The economic dimension of the war is becoming just as significant as the military one. Along with missile strikes and air-defense systems, the significance of energy markets and logistical networks demonstrates that modern wars are fought not only on the battlefield but also within the global economic system. Recent developments suggest that rather than delivering a conventional military response, Iran is attempting to transform the war into a prolonged economic attrition.
Iran’s strategy: A prolonged war of attrition
According to several geopolitical analyses assessing developments in West Asia, Iran’s primary objective is not to confront the superior military power of the US-Israel in a direct battlefield confrontation. Instead, Tehran wants to stretch the conflict over time in order to impose a heavy economic burden on its adversaries.
This resembles a classic asymmetric warfare strategy. Aware that it cannot compete directly with the US-Israel in terms of military capabilities, Iran is seeking to reshape the conflict into a long-term struggle of economic attrition. The ultimate aim of this strategy is to expose Washington to steadily rising war costs, thus forcing the US administration back to the negotiating table.
The asymmetric cost gulf
The most striking aspect of this war is the enormous cost disparity between the two sides. Some of the ballistic missiles and kamikaze drone systems used by Iran are estimated to cost roughly between $50,000 and $100,000. By contrast, the interceptor missiles used by US and Israeli air-defense systems cost more than $1 million each. In other words, by deploying relatively cheap offensive systems, Iran is forcing its adversaries to activate far more costly defensive technologies. Israel’s Iron Dome system, faced with an intense barrage of missiles and UAV attacks, has become almost ineffective.
Critical logistics and financial hubs hit
Another notable feature of Iran’s recent strikes is its choice of targets. Rather than directly striking US aircraft carriers or large military platforms, Iran is focusing on logistics and financial hubs that are vital to the global economic system. Strikes in centers such as Dubai, Bahrain, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi have created significant psychological pressure across global trade networks and energy markets.
High daily cost of the war
Based on previous conflicts as a reference point, Israel’s daily military operating cost is estimated at around $700 million. However, when air-defense expenditures and damage to infrastructure are included, that figure rises to nearly $2 billion per day.
The financial burden is also heavy for the US. The use of Tomahawk cruise missiles, intelligence operations, and the defense of military bases generate large expenses. Taken together, the combined estimated daily cost of the war for the US-Israel could reach between $4 and $5 billion.
Chain reaction in Gulf economies
The economic repercussions of the war are not limited to the countries directly involved in. Economic hubs across the Gulf region are also feeling the strain. Airspace closures, disruptions in logistics networks, and a decline in tourism are producing substantial economic losses in the region. Current estimates suggest that the daily economic damage could reach between $3 and $4 billion.
Rising global energy risks
One of the most critical points in the war is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through this narrow corridor.
After Iran blocked the Strait, oil prices quickly climbed to around $85 per barrel. If the war drags on, oil prices are more likely to rise above $120. This could place serious inflationary and recessionary pressure on the global economy.
Energy tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly important for the Chinese and US economies. Iran is currently allowing only Chinese tankers to pass, meaning that the immediate energy shock may be felt less severely in China in the short term. However, if the war continues for a long time, the entire global economy could see a new energy shock.
A well-known historical example is the 1973 Oil Crisis. Following the oil embargo imposed by Arab countries on Western states, oil prices quadrupled within a few months and the world economy went into a severe period of stagflation. This combination of high inflation and weak economic growth is regarded as one of the most difficult episodes in economic history.
Negative impacts on the Turkish economy
Türkiye’s economy is highly dependent on energy imports. This makes it open to fluctuations in global oil and natural gas prices. Rising energy costs could drive up production costs, leading to widespread cost-push inflation. Analysts estimate that rise in oil prices could push up inflation in Türkiye by a few percentage points. In some sectors companies may attempt to turn rising costs into an opportunity by raising prices beyond their actual cost increases, which could push inflation well above initial projections.
Economic resilience matters
Developments in West Asia demonstrate that modern wars are determined not only by military balance but also by economic resilience. The widening gap between low-cost offensive systems and expensive defensive technologies can become a decisive factor in prolonged conflicts. For this reason, the war between Iran and the US-Israel is no longer merely a regional security issue, but also a struggle with the potential to affect the trajectory of the global economy.
Opportunities for Türkiye
In conclusion, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US to shoulder the rising costs required to maintain its global dominance. Thus, we will witness Washington gradually scaling back its position while trying to preserve the “image” of hegemon.
This process presents significant opportunities for Türkiye. However, it is not possible to cope with potential major economic shocks with the current neoliberal economic model. We should develop a comprehensive new program based on a more security-oriented approach and continue on our path with a national, planned economic program that prioritizes development.