By Gökalp Erbaş
The governments of both Moldova and Transnistria declared a state of emergency last December, initially for one month. Ukraine’s decision not to renew transit agreements for Russian gas for 2025 and Gazprom’s suspension of gas supplies to Moldova due to unpaid debts prompted both governments to take measures against a possible energy crisis. As expected, Ukraine cut off Russian gas supplies. From 1 January, Europe will no longer receive natural gas from Russia, except in the form of LNG, which is expensive and, as some energy experts point out, unsustainable in the long term, especially for countries with poor infrastructure. While Western European countries are trying to fill the gap with LNG from different sources – especially from Norway and the US – the situation is more complicated for the eastern part of the continent.
However, the EU’s gas reserves are close to 70 per cent. In some other countries in the region, such as Slovakia, they are almost full, according to official figures. Now, except for Transnistria, there is no energy shortage in any country, so a potential energy crisis – even if it is expected to lead to higher bills – does not mean an energy shortage. In Transnistria, however, the gas cut-off before the end of winter is already causing great difficulties.
Historical context
Transnistria existed as part of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldova until the collapse of the USSR. However, when Moldova became an independent country, Transnistria refused to join Moldova. The armed conflict between Moldova and Transnistria continued throughout 1990-92. Moldova’s main motives for wanting the region to rejoin the country were both the geographical location of the region on the border with Ukraine and the concentration of Soviet equipment in the region. There were large industrial facilities in the region and a hydroelectric power station of vital importance to Moldova. Although Moldova was very persistent on this issue, it lost the war. One of the most important factors was the deployment of Russian 14th Army troops to the region, which were later permanently stationed there. Since then, Transnistria has become one of those ‘frozen crises’, as they are often called in the terminology of international relations.
In independent Moldova, the Transnistrian issue remained frozen under both the Communist Party government and the government of pro-Western leaders. However, with the outbreak of the Russian – Ukrainian war in 2022, Transnistria, with a population of around half a million, came back into the spotlight. Transnistria’s president, Krasnoselsky, said the tensions could even lead to a world war. For the government of Maia Sandu in particular, Transnistria and Gagauzia have become two major obstacles to overcome, especially in the recent period when the steps towards unification with Romania have been accelerated and there has been no hesitation to make further sacrifices for EU integration. The Sandu government blocked the bank accounts of Transnistrian businesses, to make it impossible for them to trade internationally. Apart from the armed intervention, the behavior in Transnistria was not very different from the 1990s. Every step was taken to paralyze bureaucratic and daily life in Transnistria. However, since Moldova diverts a certain amount of Russian gas to Transnistria in return for cheap electricity, Moldova wanted to act cautiously and suffer Transnistria rather than attack it directly. However, when Gazprom completely cut off the already dwindling gas supply due to mounting debts of Moldova, followed by Ukraine’s closure of transit routes, the matter was brought to a head a little more quickly.
How long can Transnistria hold out?
On 28 December, Gazprom announced that it was cutting off gas supplies to Moldova because of a debt of around 709 million euros. On 1 January, Ukraine cut off Russian gas supplies. Transnistria was thus left without gas due to two almost simultaneous obstacles. The lines through Ukraine were not the only means by which Russian gas could reach Transnistria, but they were the only ones used. In fact, before the war, the Moldovan government was looking for better alternatives to the Ukrainian lines. Moldova agreed to buy gas through Turk-Stream, which was welcomed by the other countries on the route. However, this did not happen.
Since Ukraine wanted to further mobilize the countries in the region and create a state of paranoid vigilance against Russia, this move was in line with its foreign policy, even if it resulted in its own financial loss. In the current situation, not only is Gazprom, whose share price is falling, unwilling to supply gas while ignoring such a large debt, but it also seems unable to do so even if it wanted to because of the countries along the route that will have payment problems because of the US sanctions against Gazprom (the US had excluded Türkiye).
As a result, Moldova continues to buy gas and electricity from its neighbors, where pro-Western governments are in power, and there is no shortage of gas in households, although bills are rising. In Transnistria, however, gas has been cut off too many areas. The government now plans to supply gas to all regions at certain times, with regular intermittent supplies. Critical government institutions and food-producing enterprises have been supplied with electricity, but major facilities have shut down. It appears that the gas will last for a short time if used only for cooking on stoves. However, there are concerns that the gas could also be used for heating, and the public is being warned not to do so. Schools that were already on holiday have had to extend their holidays because there is not enough gas to supply the schools. According to the authorities, around 1,500 apartment blocks and 70,000 private homes are without gas. According to pictures in the local press, wood stoves and electric heaters are being used for heating and candles for lighting in the absence of electricity. At least for now, it is thought that the resources available will last until mid-February. People like Valeriu Ostalepa, Moldova’s former foreign minister, are already predicting armed conflict in the coming days when gas supplies run out.
Sandu’s gambling
Analyzing this picture in Transnistria in the context of Moldova’s gas supplies to the rest of the country except Transnistria, it is hard not to agree with the question posed by local journalist Gabriel Calin:
I would like to ask: is Transnistria Moldova or not? Does Moldova then have the moral right to claim that Transnistria is Moldovan territory?
Perhaps the government is waiting for the situation there to deteriorate, hoping that the population will mobilize against the leadership and that the region will agree to join Moldovan territory. Russian intelligence sources have also revealed that the Moldovan government is making plans for armed intervention. There are also those who are calling on the Moldovan government to use this humanitarian crisis as an ‘opportunity’ to take up arms. In their view, this would both break Russian influence and contribute to the EU process. Gagauzia could also become an easier target after the dissolution of Transnistria. Moreover, Gagauzia is much less developed than Transnistria, lacking weapons and industry.
Moreover, Transnistria is in a position to play a role in the later stages of the war, as some Russian commentators pointed out at the beginning of the war. If the Russian army can advance from southern Ukraine, it will have the opportunity to establish a ground link with Transnistria. In Moldova, Russia, through its embassy in Chisinau, has reacted sharply to those who propose solving this ‘frozen crisis’ with arms:
‘With the connivance of the Moldovan authorities, some ‘hotheads’ are proposing to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force. We have repeatedly warned: such actions will not remain unanswered.’
At the same time, the Transnistrian government seems to have lost none of its determination. In his latest statement, President Krasnoselsky said:
“If anyone thinks that Transnistria will fall to its knees and beg to join Moldova, allowing you to humiliate the Transnistrian people as you have done before, you are mistaken.”
Conclusion
In conclusion, the US’s action through Ukraine has killed many birds with one stone: It has crippled one of the main centers of Russian influence in Moldova; it has made European countries more dependent on US LNG; and, finally, it has made the countries of Eastern Europe completely dependent on their Western neighbors for energy. This means that the so-called ‘far-right’ opposition, which is growing in most European countries, may have less space to articulate alternatives.
But as the energy issue becomes more expensive for European society, this move could put the governments holding Zelensky’s hand in an even more difficult position. Ukraine has put the energy security of many countries – and in the case of Transnistria, the security of life – on the line in order to tie the fate of Europe to the fairy tale of a Ukrainian victory. The consequences of this move are likely to be particularly harsh for countries with weak LNG infrastructure and those further east. Moreover, if the Moldovan government follows the lead of some extremist groups in the country and launches an armed intervention, the situation could escalate into a much larger war, as the Transnistrian leadership has already indicated.
Moldova, which once had much cheaper energy than Western Europe, is a real example of what the country has become for the sake of the “Western family”. If Transnistria resists and President Sandu’s risky gamble- initiated by Ukraine but deliberately taken- blows up in his face in the 2025 parliamentary elections because of astronomical bills, falling investment due to the energy crisis and rising inflation, it will be a moral lesson for the whole Europe.