By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist / Author
The only thing that is known for certain about US President Donald Trump’s Middle East doctrine is that he has no clear policy in this part of the world other than “defending Israel”.
Considering the developments in Trump’s first term, such as the signing of the Abraham Accords between the Gulf states and Israel, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and trying to legitimize the occupied Golan Heights on behalf of Israel, it can be said that Trump will continue to direct developments in the Middle East in his new term with a special focus on Israel.
Trump essentially displayed an isolationist approach throughout the election propaganda process that won him his new term.
But he also dislikes the chaos and instability that have been the almost constant features of this part of the world for decades. Trump enjoys making business deals and making money.
Can Trump’s penchant for making deals lead to progress towards a Palestinian state?
There are many obstacles in the way, and most of them stem from Trump’s appointments.
First, Trump appointed former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel, a key position for engagement on the ground. Huckabee, an evangelical Christian, openly supports Israel’s growing settlement enterprise in the West Bank. He even rejects the idea that there are a Palestinian people. He accepts Benjamin Netanyahu and his genocidal government, described as “extreme right-wing”, as it is, and is notable for repeatedly saying that he is waiting for the time when “the Messiah will return to this part of the world”.
Under Clinton, Obama and Biden, the role of the US ambassadors to Israel was designed to preserve the status quo on the ground as much as possible, with an open door policy for both Israelis and Palestinians.
However, this time, just like in Trump’s first term, it seems that this will not be the case again. Trump’s choice for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, is known as Huckabee’s “boss” and a strong supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. It is unclear how much power Marco Rubio will have in determining US foreign policy.
But it is unlikely that he would support a humanitarian agenda on Palestine, given his statements during his time as senator.
Trump’s choice of Mike Waltz to head the US National Security Council and his appointment of Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN show that he has assembled a staff with an almost identical mindset to Netanyahu.
Both of these figures identify themselves as evangelicals, although they are not Jewish.
Trump’s most intriguing appointment, which did not require Senate confirmation, was that of Steve Witkoff, a golfing buddy of his who is also known for his serious real estate deals with Qatar.
Witkoff is also heavily invested in the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
What awaits the region?
Considering Trump’s team, it seems that Trump’s view on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be no different from his first term.
Trump’s Abraham Accords were more about financial deal flows, technology trade and armaments than peace.
But however welcome these deals may be for Israelis, Israel has never actually been at war with the Gulf states.
The Palestinians have almost always been ignored by the Gulf throughout history.
But the issue has remained at the center of regional disputes since the war that followed October 7.
In his new term, Trump could build on the legacy of the Abraham Accords with a “carrot-and-stick” approach to expand his business interests in the Gulf states and ensure that Palestine is again relegated to the background after the ceasefire.
It is also worth noting that, as under Biden, there will be no sanctions against Israel in Trump’s new term, however mild.
Conclusion
In conclusion, given Trump’s track record and his appointees, it is safe to say that for anyone who cares about a secure and free Palestine, Trump’s new term will not be a positive one.
However, despite thousands of martyrs, destruction and genocide, as I mentioned at the beginning of this analysis, both Israel and the Western world, led by the United States, have realized that the Palestinian cause cannot be ended by pressure and attacks and that Hamas is not just an armed movement, but an idea that cannot be ended.
The US and Israel, who set out with the goal of ending Hamas, experienced this most of all as direct interlocutors. At this point, future historians will write that this resistance, which lasted for 470 days, was not only a revolt against Israeli aggression, but also against an unjust world order.