by Dure Akram, Lahore / Pakistan
In recent weeks, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan has stepped into the spotlight with his strategic outreach to Central Asian nations, seeking to fortify economic ties and elevate Pakistan’s standing within a dynamic regional trade framework. His visit to Baku—which resulted in several key agreements in trade and energy—marks a significant pivot in foreign policy, aimed at revitalizing long-standing relationships with vital partners.
During discussions in Azerbaijan, Prime Minister Sharif underscored the importance of strengthening bilateral connections through various Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). A particularly noteworthy development is the imminent culmination of a $2 billion investment deal in April, a commitment that emerged following President Ilham Aliyev’s visit last year. Azerbaijan’s emergence as a major energy supplier aligns seamlessly with Pakistan’s pressing energy demands, which have become increasingly critical amid ongoing power shortages. This partnership not only promises to enhance Pakistan’s energy security but also cements Azerbaijan’s role as a pivotal regional energy hub, crucial for both domestic requirements and international markets.
Following his engagements in Azerbaijan, Prime Minister Sharif arrived in Uzbekistan, where another agreement to bolster bilateral trade to $2 billion was finalized. While at first glance, these maneuvers may seem routine for a nation exploring every avenue in the face of economic difficulties, they still reflect a broader strategic intention. Not long ago, Pakistan narrowly avoided economic default thanks to a last-minute bailout from the International Monetary Fund. With such precarious circumstances familiar to the current government, these diplomatic efforts come as a necessary response to a series of governance crises.
The underlying rationale for this diplomatic flurry becomes even more clear when contextualized within a progressive alliance among Pakistan, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan. Recent engagements, such as the ceremonious welcome of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the seventh iteration of the Pakistan-Türkiye High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, signify a resurgence in this relationship. The grandeur accompanying Erdogan’s visit—complete with a guard of honor, a 21-gun salute, and a fly-past by F16 fighter jets—symbolizes the enduring cultural and historical bonds shared by the two nations. The renewed commitment to elevating bilateral trade to $5 billion further adds a tangible purpose to this traditionally amicable relationship.
Enhancing these ties further is the longstanding camaraderie between the Sharif family and Turkish leadership. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s attendance at Erdogan’s daughter’s wedding in 2016 emphasizes personal connections that complement political alliances. The Turkish response to a flood of biblical proportions that battered Pakistan in 2022, with Erdogan being among the first leaders to assist, has solidified his image as a local hero, further fueled by the popularity of Turkish television dramas.
Azerbaijan, too, has played a significant humanitarian role, with initiatives spearheaded by the Heydar Aliyev Foundation—led by Azerbaijan’s First Lady, Mehriban Aliyeva—laying the groundwork for numerous educational and social projects in Pakistan. These contributions exemplify how soft power can forge deeper ties among nations, reinforcing a framework for mutual support on international platforms.
Türkiye’s aspirations to enhance its influence dovetail effectively with Pakistan’s and Azerbaijan’s goals of achieving regional stability and economic integration. In the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse three decades ago, Türkiye and Pakistan were among the first to recognize Azerbaijan as an independent state, a testament to their shared history. This foundation has since evolved into a strategic partnership marked by the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route—an initiative designed to improve connectivity between Central Asia, the Caucasus, and global markets. Adding the Arabian Sea into the mix would completely rattle the dynamic of the world trade. This corridor not only streamlines trade but also enables the efficient flow of goods, creating substantial economic opportunities for all parties involved.
Simultaneously, the Southern Gas Corridor plays a pivotal role by linking Azerbaijani gas supplies to European markets. This partnership can be crucial in ensuring that Pakistan secures a diversified energy supply. The ongoing commitment of the governments of Pakistan and Kazakhstan to realize the potential of the new Trans-Afghan Multimodal Corridor similarly signifies a tangible step toward concrete cooperation that aligns with Pakistan’s vision of becoming a connectivity hub.
Emerging collaborations in defense, education, and technology underscore a wholesome approach to this partnership. Already, joint military exercises and cooperative defense agreements demonstrate solidarity in an increasingly complex regional security landscape. The 2021 trilateral military drill, dubbed “Three Brothers,” which saw participation from all three nations, is indicative of the concrete outcomes of this alliance, regardless of the geopolitical challenges that immediately followed.
Pakistan’s acquisition of warships from Türkiye as part of the MILGEM project, coupled with becoming Türkiye’s third-largest market for weapons exports in 2020, reflects a strategic shift to diversify defense partnerships. The explicit intention to reduce dependency on Western powers for military supplies showcases a pragmatic approach to bolstering national security.
As Pakistan fortifies relationships with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, it is essential to engage proactively with the rise of regional powers, notably India and Russia. India’s growing influence in Central Asia, particularly its endeavors in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal, presents formidable challenges. So much so that a lot is being written in the international press about the ongoing efforts to critique Pakistan’s efforts. Understandably so, as Pakistan’s burgeoning connections within this triangle serve as a strategic counterbalance to external encroachments previously led to India getting closer to rivals like Armenia, Cyprus and Greece. Even now, New Delhi cautions, recommending Ankara not to alienate India.
Moreover, the strengthened relationships within this triangle provide unrivalled opportunities for enhanced trade corridors and economic collaboration. The Comprehensive Trade Agreement between Pakistan and Türkiye exemplifies how both nations can exploit their respective strengths to access rapidly expanding Central Asian markets. This collaboration holds the promise of secure economic growth and mutual benefits across a range of sectors.
All this sounds too good to be true unless lasting reforms are undertaken by Islamabad. Clearly, the proof lies in the pudding. As efforts to advance educational initiatives, share technical expertise, and foster cultural exchanges continue, the ties among Pakistan, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan are poised to deepen further. But claims to take this relationship to a new high would remain claims unless backed by statistical data. The onus here lies primarily on Pakistan to retain the attention of investors through a pro-business investment and immediate attention to address its home-grown challenges.
Diplomatically speaking, this moment represents a critical opportunity for all members to assert themselves as significant players in a reshaped geopolitical order. We have witnessed them take a stand for each other on the international stage. Türkiye’s backing of Pakistan on Kashmir; Pakistan’s validation of Türkiye’s stance on Cyprus and Ankara-Islamabad’s support to Baku during its war against Armenia speak volumes about their appeal to each other. Pakistan also realizes that it has spent a long, long time in an attempt to find a “neutral” spot on the tightrope between the competing interests of China and the US.
Ergo, (or at least what appears from the foreign policy being adopted by PM Sharif) it wishes to diversify its perception of the international community.
The likelihood of this alliance shaping the narrative of regional cooperation and economic resilience is undeniable. Strategic foresight and cohesive initiative, however, still need to be paramount as these countries navigate their collective future, and as they solidify a transformative partnership for the 21st century.