US Vice-president J.D. Vance conducted a two-day-visit to the South Caucasus, meeting with the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. During both visits, the US signed fundamental agreements with its counterparts. In Armenia, cooperation on nuclear energy and the sales of drones were agreed upon. In Azerbaijan, an agreement of lifting the relations to the strategic level was signed, including cooperation in the energy and defense sectors.
We interviewed Prof. Batış Adıbelli from the Turkish University of Dumlupınar about the geopolitical context and effects of Vance’s visit. Adıbelli draw a broader framework, issued warning to Türkiye and made a call to Russia to return to international politics.
US enters Asia “by land”
How do you judge the US Vice-President’s visit to the Caucasus?
It has been the biggest dream of the United States for many years, that is, since the end of the Cold War. They made many attempts to enter the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, but with no avail. For example, they organized a color revolution in Georgia and threatened Azerbaijan from time to time.
I had a prediction when Trump took office, or even before, during his election campaign. Remember, Biden’s main focus at that time was the Asia Pacific and Taiwan, which they called the Indo-Pacific Region. They were pursuing a policy aimed at encircling a China focused on Taiwan and the South China Sea. But I said at the time that Trump will do the opposite. He will enter Asia not from the sea, that is, from the oceans, but on the contrary, he will come by land. In other words, Trump’s aim is to settle in the Eurasian geography. To bring America into the Eurasian geography.
Remember that Brzezinski had stated already in the 90s that the forces to challenge America will also come out of this geography, not from Europe.
Let’s start with an evaluation from Türkiye.
Well, I say ‘sorry for your loss, Türkiye’. Look, we were imagining the Zangezur Corridor as a ‘Turan Road’, ‘the Path of the Turks’. It was supposed to link Türkiye with the Turkic states and the Turkish world to Turkey. The obstacles of Russia and Armenia had disappeared. The moment we thought there was nothing between us and the Turkic States, the US suddenly came. And now, the corridor is officially called ‘Trump friendship bla bla’.
In fact, Türkiye had some conditions. Ankara demanded a peace agreement before advancing relations with Armenia. Now, Washington will pressure us to normalize as soon as possible, to open border gates etc. And we will have the US, which already was in our south, also in our east side.
A warning to Türkiye: Trump may be our friend, but all the rest in Washington is allied against Ankara
But Ankara claims to be in good terms with the Trump Administration.
It is true that we are on very good terms with Trump. But remember, we are on good terms with Trump, we are not on good terms with the Trump administration. Their Ministers don’t like us. The Congress does not like Türkiye at all. Believe me, the Congress does also not like Azerbaijan. Because the Armenian, Greek and Jewish lobbies are very active in the Congress. Therefore, there is an evil alliance against Türkiye in Congress. These three lobbies have an alliance.
In my opinion, there are two losers in this issue in the medium term are China and Türkiye. China’s Belt and Road is affected. The lines of the initiative pass right through this region.
Let’s delve deeper into what the US did during Vence’s visit and what its consequences will be.
The United States made a strategic partnership agreement with Azerbaijan as well as with Armenia. Now America also says that it will provide military support to Armenia. Here, nuclear power plants and nuclear reactors are involved in all kinds of dealings.
Azerbaijan is not an average country it is important oil and natural gas producer. Therefore, today, after the European Union deteriorated relations with Russia, Europe needs new supply sources of energy, such as even Iran, Qatar, Kazakhstan and Central Asian energy resources
What does America want to do? America has also developed relations with Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan. Trump held a C5 plus one meeting at the White House. He summoned the Central Asian states and held a meeting with them. They were all in good spirits. Because the Central Asian states wanted to have an alternative center against Russia and China. A year ago, the European Union went there, spent significant money. Then came the US.
Take note, America did impose a policy unilaterally. Both countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan voluntarily established a strategic partnership with the United States. This has also to do with the political climate that emerged in the former Soviet Republics after the Ukraine war. My guess is that Kazakhstan will be next. Trump said he would sign the Ibrahim agreements at the White House. Now, both, Armenia and Azerbaijan have good relations with Israel.
Take a step back: Who was the president in the US during the Karabakh War of 2020? Trump. Have you ever heard of Trump’s statement condemning Azerbaijan? Did he ever threaten to impose an embargo? On the contrary. He turned his back and covered his ear. Congress also wouldn’t do anything because the Israel lobby, the Jewish lobby. Remember that videos were circulating about Israel’s support in the war.
Partnership with Israel: Decisive but limited range
Now, as you know, at a time when Israel was isolated in the last period, Azerbaijan did not participate in that and continued to maintain its relations normally.
And today, Azerbaijan has been declared a strategic partner by the United States of America, as it is a kind of bad day friend for Israel. One day, even Azerbaijan’s membership in NATO may happen.
On the other hand, how far will you get with Israel in the 21st century? There range is clear: From Gaza to Syria. In other words, the US saw nothing but blood, tears, murder and crimes against humanity there. This also undermines America’s interests. Especially in the Eurasian geography, Israel does not exist anyway.
Therefore, the USA is making such a strategic choice. ‘What if I proceed hand in hand with Israel, I will be stuck in the Middle East. But if I walk together with the countries of the region, the strategic positions I lost to Russia and China will regain’. That is their evaluation.
You know that Trump will establish a new chain of alliances in the region. There is the Gaza Peace Council, that photo in the Sharm el-Sheikh agreement, a new Baghdad Pact may be coming, and its next name is CENTO.
The US will control energy tap
Coming back to your point about energy. Is this step part of an anergy policy?
Clearly. Now Central Asian and Azerbaijani energy is not only necessary for Europe, but also for China. That’s why America seized oil in Venezuela and actually sells that oil to China again. There is no other place to sell. No one will buy that much oil. India will buy it, China will buy it.
This time, America will sit at the tap. America will turn down the tap off on China whenever it wants. When they demand something from India, they will cut off the tap to India. Now, both of these are developing, prospering and producing countries. If America sits at the tap here, it will indirectly control also the flow to the European Union.
From the Global South, routine statments “aren’t enough anymore”
Do you observe that Vance’s visit occurs within a wider, global change?
The USA is building a new world. We always state this. We also state that Russia and China, which advocate multipolarity on the side of the global south, should now go beyond routine rhetoric.
For example, at this point, Xi Jinping took a step. He said that we want to make China’s national currency a global reserve currency. This was a big challenge against the US dollar. Such things, such steps against the US deter Washington.
But making calls on parties to exercise restraint on a routine, paper basis… Respect for international law… What is left of that international law? Respect for what? Russia, China, other great powers such as the European Union need to step up.
Unfortunately, the European Union is playing two-faced and ambivalent games. On the one hand, they are trying to approach China, trying to save their trade, on the other, they do everything the US says. Their recent stance on Iran is an example. This makes Europe an extension of the USA rather than autonomous or independent, and since Trump knows this, he plays with Europe as he wishes. And now Europe needs to shake it off, create its own identity, its independent identity and move on to producing an independent policy. In this context, multipolarity should restore its relations with the European Union, China and even Russia and become a bloc at this point.
Russia is being played in Ukraine, needs to return to interenational politics
For Russia, Moscow is really taking a great effort in the Ukraine War, but someone is keeping Russia busy here. The US does not want the Ukraine War to end. Contrary to what everyone thinks, Trump is playing a constant game. Once he pats a Zelensky on the back, then he commends Putin. The aim is to continue the war further and gain a position in the Eurasian geography, that is, in Russia’s backyard very quickly, and he started to achieve this. Because Russia’s interest and all its attention is focused on Ukraine, with all its power and economy.
Look, the India is almost gone already. Saudi Arabia may slip away too. Multipolarity should now be discussed on an institutional basis. You can establish an organization like the G20. You can turn BRICS into an organization and do something with wider participation. But unfortunately, BRICS countries do not want to take too many steps at this point, fearing their relations with the West would deteriorate.
Russia needs to settle the issues and return as soon as possible. Now look, do you think America could have carried out the Maduro operation if the Ukraine war had not happened? Russia would have made itself felt more strongly, together with China.
I think the only solution for Russia is to sit at the table with Ukraine and solve this issue in Istanbul. Because we need strong countries right now, we need Russia back in international politics. As long as you cannot balance the US, the ship of international relations takes on water and that balance is disrupted. Therefore, while there’s still time, things should come to a point that will balance the US on the institutional ground.
