We spoke with Leonid Savin, Chairman of the Fidel Castro Foundation (based in Moscow), about the energy crisis in Cuba, possible White House moves regarding Cuba, and Moscow-Havana relations.
“Better early than later”
What is the scale of Cuba’s energy crisis, and could it threaten the regime’s survival?
This is unprecedented case during all history of sanctions and blockade imposed by the US. So, it is difficult to say how serious is the threat for the government. But it is obvious that effects on economic and social life are very strong. Cuba gets about 60% of oil for own needs from Venezuela, but now after attack on Caracas and pressure on government of Venezuela it is not possible to use this source. There is an own oil sector and refinery in Cuba, but it is not enough for whole country. Need to add that system of electricity need renovation. So, it is complex issue. Anyway, Cuban government need to find solution, better early than later.
Leond Savin during his last visit to Havana
“The Impact of foreign propaganda on island is limited”
When was the last time you visited Cuba? What is the public’s attitude toward the economic difficulties, and what is the level of loyalty to the regime?
Last time I was in Cuba in December 2025, and before in August and in January-February. I felt the impact of energy crisis during August and December, for example in Pinar del Rio there were only few hours of electricity in the hosting house in August. And in December there were two blackouts in la Habana. But the general population lives under sanctions for decades, so there is a kind of resistance spirit. Concerning loyalty to government, I have not seen any strong critics or direct protests. In media there are news from time to time about protest actions in different places, but I’m not sure that everything was like presented, cause many organized manipulations from pseudo Cuban blogs and social nets. And there is no clear indicator to understand what people will do in the ultimate level, and what is this level – military attack of the US or continuation of Trump’s policy? Anyway, the impact of foreign propaganda on the island is limited.
“I think that it is not on the table”
Could the US take steps to overthrow the Cuban government?
I think that it is not on the table, because it is dangerous and expensive for the US. White House now focused on Iran and main military power is concentrated around. It is more obvious that the US follows the strategy of the ripe apple and waiting when fruit will be ready to fall down from tree to their hands. Because a negotiation process is going on, politicians from Washington use this window of opportunity to pressure Cubans and to check how string they are. But Cuban government must be ready to react on possible attack any time. Under serious limits (that are growing from day to day) military there will be ineffective to face new aggression from the US. So new blockade of the US based on two pillars – suffering from Cuban society that may lead to riots and exhausting of state system, including military. Without energy resources it will be more difficult to protect country, at least absence of gasoline and other oil product will kill logistic and transportation.
“Few weeks ago, Russian military transport aircraft was landed in Cuba”
Russia and Cuba maintain close strategic relations. Recently, the Cuban Foreign Minister visited Moscow and met with Putin. What support is Russia providing to Cuba against the US? Will Russia stand idly by while the US rebuilds Cuba?
Yes, Russia is ready to provide assistance to Cuba. Besides diplomatic and political support, oil supply is confirmed. This option in process now. Last year we signed a new agreement on military technical cooperation. I think that it is something that not for public. Few weeks ago, Russian military transport aircraft was landed in Cuba… Personally, I wish more Russian military presence in Cuba. There is Russian actives like metal factory, and we developed road map for further cooperation. Just Russia needs to be more proactive there.
How far are they willing to go?
Since Maduro’s kidnapping, the Trump administration has made very serious threats against the region it considers its “backyard.” What does the US want to do in the region, and how far are they willing to go?
The Donroe doctrine that is some elements of Monroe doctrine with paranoic view of Donald Trump and his colleagues like Marco Rubio defines whole Latin America like zone of imperial design of the US. It is perception of all regions like own backyard. If this territory it’s own (for the US) can we talk about equal relations and respect of sovereignty? No. So it is challenge for all states of South and Central America, Caribbean region and Mexico. Oil, gas, metals, rare earth minerals, but also logistic, fertile soil, new markets with men power, etc. – everything now under focus of the predatory ambitions of the Washington. Also, it is a threat to multipolarity and other actors in other continents. The US not back to Western Hemisphere, they just hold stronger grip there, but still active in Eurasia and Africa – World Island by terminology of Halford Mackinder.