By Tehran Tapdigov – Political commentator
The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia has ended. Armenia has recognized Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Currently, the two countries are continuing negotiations to sign a peace agreement. The long-standing tensions between the two nations will bring peace to the entire region.
However, the issue doesn’t end here. Unfortunately, there are countries that hinder this process. They are interested in the continuation of the conflict in the South Caucasus.
The President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, addressed this topic during his speech on September 23, 2024.
Ilham Aliyev stated:
“We are strengthening our positions at the conditional border because provocations from Armenia can be expected at any moment. The Armenian side is massively rearming, while also conducting military exercises with foreign countries, including major powers. Weapons and ammunition are being sent to Armenia from Western countries. In some cases, this is done openly—as seen in the clear military cooperation between France and Armenia—while in other cases, it is done covertly. However, we now need to know, and we do know, what is being sent to Armenia, when, and by whom, as well as which military cargo planes land at Armenian airports and what military products are being delivered to Armenia. It is clear that certain Western states have plans to align Armenia against us. Naturally, they do not care about the Armenian people. The Armenian people are merely a tool for them, a means to keep pressure on Azerbaijan.”
These statements are highly significant and should draw the attention of the international community. Currently, France is arming Armenia. This may seem like a normal process, but the issue lies deeper. Why is France arming Armenia? France is pushing Armenia towards a new war with Azerbaijan. The reality is that no matter how modern Armenia’s weaponry may be, it will always lose in a war against Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani military is approximately the same size as Armenia’s entire population. Naturally, the process doesn’t end there. Azerbaijan is allied with Russia and Türkiye. The Shusha Declaration was signed between Türkiye and Azerbaijan. This is not just a document; the two countries could go to war to protect each other’s territorial integrity. In such a case, what will Armenia lose this time? It is not difficult to foresee these developments.
If Armenia continues its war rhetoric, Azerbaijan may refer to archival documents and return to its historical lands. Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, is historically Azerbaijani territory. I believe this fact gives us insight into what Armenia might be expecting. However, Azerbaijan does not seek this. But, if Armenia delays peace and continues with its war rhetoric, Azerbaijan will have the opportunity to reclaim its historical lands.
So, what do France and the U.S. want?
It is clear that the South Caucasus region holds great importance in the context of the new world order. The energy resources that Azerbaijan possesses are crucial for the world. Energy security and energy corridors pass through here. Armenia’s cooperation for Europe’s energy security raises questions. What kind of logic is behind preparing a defeated country for a new war against Azerbaijan?
The U.S.’s use of the term “Nagorno-Karabakh” means losing a partner like Azerbaijan. And they must understand that the South Caucasus is not the Middle East. This region can never be Syria. Azerbaijan is a Turkish country, and this reflects its warrior spirit. If the West and France are only concerned with energy security, then they should cooperate with Azerbaijan.
The Russian Factor
Another issue is the steps taken against Russia. In the South Caucasus, the West, having skillfully used Ukraine, now seeks to open new fronts. However, the U.S. is losing its partners, failing to realize that these efforts will bear no fruit. Azerbaijan’s good relations with Russia are not directed against any third country.