By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist, Türkiye
After a year of destruction in Gaza, Israel has now launched a war against Lebanon, clearly demonstrating Netanyahu’s goal of expanding the war and creating a war environment that will draw the US into it, knowing that he will have the support of the US “under all circumstances”.
While the world has been experiencing the shock of Israel’s genocide in Gaza for a year, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s prediction about a year ago that “If Israel’s attacks on Gaza are not stopped, these attacks will turn into a regional war” has been vindicated with Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and preparations to attack Iran.
The possibility of the war extending to Türkiye has become a reality far beyond a conspiracy theory.
As the conflicts and violence in the region escalated, the reality that historically, in all wars, developments in Lebanon and Syria trigger each other was revealed again.
In the light of the facts in the historical background, it has become inevitable that the developments in Lebanon will affect Syria and Türkiye as a critical neighbor.
Will Syria get involved in the war?
The developments in Lebanon also reveal that the war may enter another phase at any moment due to the reality of migration from southern Lebanon to Syria.
In the light of historical developments, the two countries are politically, economically and socially intertwined and even fatefully intertwined due to common borders and cultural ties.
These realities, especially considering the complex alliances and rivalries in the region, suggest that the current conflict in Lebanon will involve Syria as well.
However, these conflicts, which were considered “local”, have now reached the point of involving not only local actors but also global powers such as Iran, the US and Russia.
Balance
The reality in the region, especially over the past decade, has seen around 1.5 million Syrian refugees cross into Lebanon and more than 3 million into Türkiye.
Now, if violence erupts in Lebanon, the opposite could happen, with refugees flooding into Syria, further straining an already fragile security and economic situation.
Although the Israeli war against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon has not yet drawn Syria into a direct conflict, its active involvement is becoming increasingly inevitable due to its regional and socio-economic implications.
The war has already had a significant impact on Syria due to its secondary effects.
One of the first effects was the influx of refugees, with more than 250,000 Lebanese civilians crossing into Syria, a much bigger problem for a country that has been in a brutal civil war for 14 years than for a normal country.
In addition, Israel has carried out numerous airstrikes on Syrian territory, targeting locations allegedly linked to Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. So far, the Assad government has limited its response to condemnation. But this could escalate to the point of affecting critical parts of the country, including the capital Damascus.
Continued Israeli military operations in Syrian airspace could eventually provoke a stronger Syrian response and bring Syria closer to open involvement in the conflict.
There is no doubt that Syria is not yet stable and much of the country is fragmented, largely under the influence of different forces, including US-backed terrorist organizations.
In light of historical reality, it is important to note that there is now always the possibility that the war in Lebanon could spill over into Syrian territory.
While it is not in Syria’s interests at the moment to go to war with Israel, this poses great risks not only for Syria but also for Russia, Syria’s patron.
On the other hand, even though the region continues to be unstable, all interlocutors know that Türkiye, as the protector of the region, will take action against the targets it has set in Syria for years in order to prevent the war from reaching its borders and will change all the balances by putting aside its patience!