Along with the continuing Ukraine crisis, not only the relations between Russia and the West deteriorating. Relations between Turkey and the West suffer the same fate.
United World International expert Onur Sinan Guzaltan evaluated the Ukraine crisis, NATO’s enlargement discussions and the future of Turkey-Western relations in an interview with the Italian-based l’Antidiplomatico website.
The original text can be read here. Subheadings were set by United World International.
“Europe’s destiny is at stoke in the US-Russian conflict”
What will be the repercussions of the Russia – NATO conflict in Ukraine? Do you think the birth of a new world order is possible?
There is a conflict between Russia and the USA over Ukraine. The matter of conflict is the fate of Europe…
Russia has stopped its withdrawal from Europe, which has been continuing since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the operation it organized in Ukraine.
The United States and its allies responded to this move with military, logistical and economic support to Ukraine. But they did not dare to confront Russia directly.
The economic sanctions imposed on Russia, on the other hand, have not yielded results so far.
This forward move of Russia also displays the withdrawal on the part of the US, which claims to be the gendarme of the world.
The first signals were given with the Syrian war. After Russia’s intervention, the US plans to shape the Middle East through Syria were disrupted. Now a similar process is taking place in Europe via Ukraine.
The peoples of Europe today are faced with the question of whether they will live under US rule. Do Europeans want to be an independent actor in a multipolar world or will they remain vassals of the USA?
With the rise of Asia, we have entered a time where a new world is being born. This world is multipolar, and it needs new concepts and forms of relationship.
The Ukraine war, on the other hand, is essentially a struggle over the question, whether Europe can take its place in this world.
Let me also add thr following: The US is in a difficult situation in the war over Ukraine today and it seems likely that it will engage in an insane way, such as spreading the war to other countries such as Moldova or Poland and even nuclear provocations.
“Russians can go on without McDonalds, but I don’t think Europeans can go on with their daily lives without natural gas”
What are the economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine, especially after the Western sanctions against Russia and the consequent problems in the supply of energy globally?
Russia has responded to the US sanctions with an energy weapon and we can say that it has been successful so far.
I had the opportunity to observe life in Moscow before and after the war.
Russians continue their normal lives. Yes, there are Western stores, food chains and so on that have closed, but life goes on. As reflected in the western press, there is no shortage of food in the markets or long queues in front of the banks.
The ruble is even more valuable today than it was before the war. Russia continues to sell energy and is on its way to find new markets.
Most of the world, especially China, India, Iran and Turkey, did not participate in the embargo. Therefore, Europe, in particular, shot itself in the foot through embargoes.
Russians can go on without McDonalds, but I don’t think Europeans can go on with their daily lives without natural gas.
“Turkish government continues policy of balance”
NATO is pushing to fuel the conflict and widen it, whereas Turkey, despite being part of the Atlantic alliance, has decided not to impose sanctions and is working towards a peace agreement. How do you explain this different position of Ankara? Can we say that Turkey is now looking more towards the East than towards the West?
The AKP government in Turkey continues its policy of balance between the West and the East. But since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, the weight has been given to the Russian side.
Although Turkey is a NATO member, it has rejected the anti-Russian sanctions. Turkish companies, especially Turkish Airlines, continue their activities in Russia.
The NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, which Russia is strongly opposed and likely to be rejected by Turkey.
But on the other hand, the AKP government does not want to completely close the doors with the US. The policy of balancing the US with Russia and Russia with the US still continues.
But global conditions have oriented Turkey as a whole towards the East. The rise of Asia and the economic, cultural, military and social collapse of the West are the underlying reality of this trend.
In summary, for the AKP, turning to the East and moving away from the West was not a choice, but a necessity brought about by global conditions.
Even if a pro-Western government comes to Turkey tomorrow, conditions will force this new government to turn towards the East. Otherwise it has no chance to hold the power.
“Montreux Convention preserves Turkish-Russian cooperation”
A crucial component of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine concerns the Black Sea, over which the Montreux Convention gives some discretionary power to Ankara, which has decided to close the passage to warships. Turkey is not yielding to US/NATO pressure and is sticking to the Montreux Convention. Do we see any other signs of Turkey distancing itself from the so-called collective West?
The Montreux Convention is a strategically important agreement that guarantees the status of the Straits in favor of Turkey.
It is the Montreux Convention that ensures that the Black Sea is a sea of peace today, in spite of the conflicts around. As far as I understand, the Russian side is also aware of this.
The US attempted various provocations to break the Montreux Convention, but encountered the resistance of the Turkish state, especially from the Turkish Armed Forces.
The USA may be present in all the seas of the world today, but it has not been able to enter the Black Sea continuously.
The fact that the USA cannot enter the Black Sea means that the USA cannot enter between Turkey and Russia.
The Montreux Convention perhaps preserves the most Turkish-Russian cooperation.
The development of Turkey-Russia friendship is also in favor of Europe. Eurasia is a geography that includes all of us. To the extent that we limit US influence, we can live and share in this geography in prosperity and peace.