By Işıkgün Akfirat
Nowadays, it is being debated how the maritime jurisdiction delimitation agreement between Lebanon and Israel will change the balance of power in the region. The officials from these two countries are set to meet at the United Nations Assembly, before October 31st in order to sign the agreement. Hezbollah also supported the agreement being reached at the end of the negotiation process carried out by the Lebanese President Michel Aoun. The agreement also clarified the situation of some gas field such as the Karish gas field, which could have been led to an open conflict between Lebanon and Israel.
We have discussed about the agreement, which is also in Türkiye’s national interests, with the head of the International Relations Office of the Michel Aoun’s affiliated party Free Patriotic Movement, Bashir Haddad, who had been representing the negotiations on the Lebanese side. Some of the negotiation delegates also contributed in answering the some of our questions. Haddad states that they want to see Türkiye as a “potential strategic partner” for cooperation in the area of natural gas. Haddad stated that they would be pleased to see the participation of Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) in the contract auction to be held in December.
They gave up on the sovereignty rights in Qana
We first asked what Lebanon gained in the agreement and what concessions Israel made. The Lebanese officials said that they had “managed to keep all blocks that righteously belonged to them”. They also state that a gas field 5 kilometers away from the designated border has been left for further negotiations to be resolved later, due to security reasons.
One of the most important achievements of Lebanon has been the provision of all necessary guarantees for the use of the disputed Qana gas field by Lebanon. “Thus, Israel has renounced some of its sovereign rights over the Qana field” Haddad stated. He added that Israel is expecting to get a share in the French energy company TotalEnergies as compensation.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun had previously announced that there would be absolutely no cooperation with the Israelis. However, in the end, Lebanon seems to get what it wanted and all the sovereign rights of the Qana gas field. Israel on the other hand, has accepted this concession by taking a share from TotalEnergies company’s operations in that field.
Their fears of Hezbollah made them to take a step back
The Lebanese officials recalled that Israel had a unilateral plan for the Karish gas field back in 2021. Accordingly, Israel aimed to exploit Karish field by building some “Floating Production Storage and Offloading” (FPSO) vessels, also known as the floating platforms. Haddad stated “Their main motivation for rushing it, is to get as much profit as possible”.
The secretary general of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and the coalition partner to the Free Patriotic Movement, previously declared that the oil exploration and exploitation activities in the region would be the targeted militarily in regards of the Karish gas field, by saying “We will not allow the unilateral Israeli usurp of our sovereignty”. And the international energy companies have not been willing to operate in the region due to security concerns. And with the rise in the energy prices due to the Ukrainian War, the exploitation of more oil and gas resources in the region has also become a priority for the United States.
Haddad summarizes these developments as “While gas prices have reached record highs, the Americans have pushed stability above all”. The former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the staunch supporters of the Zionist lobby in the US heavily criticized this deal as “a concession to Hezbollah”. The statements of the Lebanese side also show that the US and Israel have accepted that it will not be possible to carry out any energy activities in the Karish gas field, without an agreement that convinces Hezbollah as well.
In short, statements by both Lebanese and US-Israeli officials, confirm the comment that “Israel has made serious concessions with the fear of a conflict with Hezbollah.”
Karish cannot be an alternative to Russia
Another US move that was also interpreted as a concession, had taken place in Venezuela. A delegation appointed by the US President Joe Biden has visited Nicolas Maduro, whom they have previously declared as “illegitimate”, and signed an agreement that made it possible for international energy companies to operate in Venezuela. A similar situation appears to be taking place currently in Lebanon.
However, the Lebanese side points out that the amount that Israel will offer to the global market with this agreement cannot replace the natural gas supply coming from Russia. Haddad stated that even peak capacity of the gas Karish field basically accounts for less than 3 percent of the Russian gas supplies to Europe. Therefore, goals such as contributing to the Israeli normalization process in the region stands out in here, rather than the efforts of a quick response to the oil crisis.
The agreements will still be valid when the State of Palestine is established
The Palestinian issue is important to President Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement as much as it is to Hezbollah. And one of the concerns about a deal with Israel was that it would weaken the Palestinian political position. Add that to the countries in the region also being skeptical of Israeli “normalization” process. Therefore, the Lebanese side’s stance on Palestine is still a big question.
Haddad on the other hand, says that since the maritime area is still counted as Israeli continental shelf, the agreement will also be valid between Palestine and Lebanon, when a Palestinian state is established in the future.
Türkiye may offer license rights for the natural gas exploration in December
We inform the Lebanese authorities that Türkiye, with its heavy investments in the recent years, has established one of the world’s largest and most modern drilling and seismic exploration fleets. Then we ask about the potential for cooperation with Türkiye on the exploitation of these hydrocarbon reserves.
Haddad noted that Lebanon is open to companies from all over the world. He says Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) has went through the preliminary stage in the previous licensing auction for the Lebanese hydrocarbon fields, but refrained join the bidding in later staged. He also notes that this may be due to the failure of a potential partnership with the Indian company ONGC. And according to the licensing rules, at least 3 companies are required to enter the bidding process by establishing a joint subsidiary.
Haddad goes on to say that the possibility of cooperation has not yet been gone, and that Türkiye can still utilize the existing opportunities: “A second licensing round will be held for all fields in December. And Lebanon will be very pleased, if Türkiye participates that round and bids”.
Moreover, the International Relations Office Head of President Michel Aoun’s party Bashir Haddad said that they see Türkiye as a potential strategic partner. And Haddad’s following sentences indeed makes up an important call for the institutions in Türkiye: “We see that Türkiye will be a potential strategic partner for the development, production and export of our natural gas fields. And we think this can be done especially with Türkiye’s pipeline infrastructure, the Turkish market by means of exports”.
Setting an agreement with Türkiye instead of Southern Cypriots
We also ask the Lebanese authorities about the maritime jurisdiction delimitation agreement signed with the Southern Cypriot Administration, back in 2007. The agreement is still not ratified in the Lebanese Parliament. It is also known that an agreement that Lebanon would make with Türkiye instead of the Southern Cypriots, will give the country an extra 3,957 square kilometers of EEZ. So, why would not there be an agreement with Türkiye instead?
Haddad answers our question in a diplomatic manner and said, “This law regarding Southern Cyprus is still not ratified by the parliament, but there is a cabinet decree”. We can perhaps interpret this as this decision being open to amendments, as a reason why it did not become a ratified law in parliament. Indeed, Haddad’s statements about the energy cooperation with Türkiye give some clues about this.