By Onur Sinan Güzaltan
UWI author political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan evaluated on the current situation of Israel in a broader internal, regional and global context, covering the nature of Israel’s policies, its supporters, it’s shattered image in the world as well as China and Russia’s position.
Two kinds of protest in Israel
Güzaltan evaluated the ongoing anti-government protests in Israel with the following statements:
“There are people within Israel who are trying to raise their voices against the massacres in Gaza. However, it’s debatable how much of the population they actually represent. It’s crucial to distinguish between these two groups: A major part of those large protests were not about supporting Palestinian freedom, but rather about demanding the exchange of prisoners. There are also smaller groups advocating for a just peace.”
A state built on terrorism
Güzaltan, while criticizing the assessments that Israel would change its policy if Netanyahu leaves, said the following;
“The Israeli state is a state built on terrorism. Since its very date of foundation, it has been a state constantly at war with its neighbors, pursuing a policy fueled by perpetual conflict. Even the opposition does not advocate policies that are 180 degrees different from Netanyahu’s. Though there are some nuances between them, the argument that referring to Netanyahu as ‘the’ source of the problems in the region is a flawed one. Israel was committing massacres in Palestine even before Netanyahu. It had an ongoing aggressive policy towards its neighbors. The Israeli state, by its very roots, is an aggressive state.”
Israel’s shattered image
Güzaltan also opposed claims that Israel was invincible.
“Israel is now a country targeted from many sides, unable to fully protect itself, and isolated on the international stage, although it has the support of the US and some countries in the EU. How powerful can a state be if its intelligence and military headquarters can be targeted? If it’s so powerful, how did it fail to prevent the Al Aqsa Storm operation on October 7…”
Emigration from Israel increases
Stating that Israel has lost strength demographically, Güzaltan evaluated the current situation with the following statements.
“Israel has a population of about 9.5 to 10 million. Among this population, 2 to 2.5 million are Arabs. There are also Ethiopian Jews. Black Jews, in particular, feel marginalized within society. There are Sephardic and Ashkenazi Jews. Israel is a country with a fragmented population structure built on immigration. From October 7 to April, over 500,000 Israeli citizens left the country. This is a significant number and indicates a noteworthy trend of reverse migration.
Also, there is a significant drop in birth rates, driven by both security concerns and economic difficulties. Especially after October 7, we see many Israeli companies going bankrupt and facing serious labor shortages. The cheap labor they previously relied on, such as Palestinians, is no longer available. In many regions, reservists have been called to duty and that also weakened the labor force. The constant security risks are making it increasingly difficult to conduct regular business.
Diplomatically, public perception, international organizations and many countries are increasingly critical. So, all these figures and trends suggest that Israel entered a self-destructive phase when it decided to launch a ground operation in Gaza after October 7. With these aggressive policies, Israel is committing suicide.”
Russia-Israel relations
Güzaltan also touched upon Russia-Israel relations, another topic on the agenda;
“During the Soviet era, there was a period of good relations between Israel and Russia. A large population of Ashkenazi Jews emigrated from Russia to Israel, and Russian is still one of the most spoken languages in Israel. There is also a Jewish population in Russia. These create ties between the two countries.
But while Russia is actively supporting the Syrian government, Israel occasionally carries out airstrikes against Syria. There are points where the interests of the two countries clash. Although not very explicit, Israel has shown support for Zelenskyy in. Russia, however, supports a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue and has worked to bring Palestinian groups together. During the Soviet era, there was significant support for Palestine. In the wars between Israel and Arab countries, Russia openly supported Arab armies with weapons, logistics and military experts. We know that Hamas delegations have visited Russia multiple times recently. It seems likely that Russia’s policies towards Israel will become sharper.”
China brings Palestinian groups together
Another issue discussed in parallel with the ongoing massacres in Gaza is Israel-China relations. Güzaltan evaluated the relations between the two countries with the following statements.
“China recently held a significant summit in Beijing, bringing together all Palestinian organizations. In the summit, they agreed on establishing a national unity government. China has supported the Palestinian cause historically and now shows its will once again in the region. On the other hand, it is known that Chinese companies collaborate with Israel, especially in information technology. There was also talk of China leasing Haifa Port. However, with the recent developments, it has become increasingly difficult for both Russia and China to maintain relations with Israel while engaging with other regional countries at the same time. Israel’s uncontrolled aggression leaves no room for diplomacy. I believe that both Russia and China will further distance themselves from Israel and, although not openly, increase their support for Palestine. This separation could develop rapidly in the near future, and we can see some surprising developments.”
“China recently held a significant summit in Beijing bringing together all Palestinian organizations. In the summit they agreed on establishing a national unity government. China has supported the Palestinian cause historically and now shows its will once again in the region. On the other hand, it is known that Chinese companies collaborate with Israel especially in information technology. There was also talk of China leasing Haifa Port. However, with the recent developments, it has become increasingly difficult for both Russia and China to maintain relations with Israel while engaging with other regional countries at the same time. Israel’s uncontrolled aggression leaves no room for diplomacy. I believe that both Russia and China will further distance themselves from Israel and, although not openly, increase their support for Palestine. This separation could develop rapidly in the near future, and we can see some surprising developments.”