By Adem Kılıç, political scientist
If there is one lesson that Israel can learn from its so-called “history” in the territories it usurped – the Arab-Israeli War of 1948, the Six-Day War of 1967, the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and the Israel-Lebanon wars – it is the fact that its “enemies” have emerged stronger than in any previous war.
In the light of all these experiences, and at the point reached after October 7, Israel’s chances of coming out of a third Lebanon war with success are less than all the wars it has fought “throughout its history”.
For history shows us that success on the battlefield is not measured by the number of dead or the amount of destruction.
In his last speech before his death, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah invited Israel to invade southern Lebanon, sending a message that “we are ready”. Today we can clearly see that with this message, Nasrallah was in fact setting a clear trap for Israel.
If Israel did not invade the region after this message, Hezbollah would claim that it had deterred Israel and declare that Israel had not only failed to achieve its goal of “destroying Hamas”, which is relatively weaker than Hezbollah in the year that has passed since October 7, but also failed to confront Hezbollah.
In the event of an invasion, he had prepared the traps.
Indeed, despite the killing of 13 members of Hezbollah’s leadership, including the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the organization managed last night to inflict the worst damage on Israel since October 7.
Israel’s dream
Since the beginning of the war, in all the analyses I have written in World of Turkey, I have stated that Netanyahu’s main goal is to spread the war across the region and to create a war environment that will draw the United States into it.
The Israeli occupation regime’s razing of Gaza to rubble and the creation of the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors must be understood as part of a broader project to geographically fragment the Gaza Strip and cut off all links between Gaza and the outside world, thus completely destroying a two-state solution.
The goal of the Israeli occupation regime’s attacks on Lebanon is to take advantage of the political vacuum in a country that has not even elected its President for the last 2 years, to occupy the areas where Hezbollah, which is defined as a terrorist organization only by the US, Israel and 3 EU countries, is located, and to expand its territory in Lebanon up to the Litani River.
As a matter of fact, Israel’s attack yesterday against the peacekeepers in the region in accordance with UN Resolution 1701 is a clear declaration of Israel’s intentions, a new example of Israel’s disregard for international law, and a clear declaration of the brain death of the UN due to the UN’s inability to respond to this attack.
But Israel now has much more serious problems than security: It lacks legitimacy, sustainability and viability.
The Zionist dream is turning into a nightmare for both Israel and the global order.
Conclusion:
The big picture is now dark, not only for Israel, but also for the international order established after the Second World War.
Iran and its proxies control the politics of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen despite everything, and the current war only strengthens their raison d’être, no matter how much Israel destroys it.
The expected outcome of history-defining wars is that one side learns that war is tragic, destructive and should not be repeated, and that this reality forces it to make peace.
However, at this point, the examples of Israel’s “so-called history” are repeating themselves. Only this time the future is darker!