By Onur Sinan Güzaltan
The world is racing toward the Great War.
Let’s list the developments of the past month that can be seen as warning signs of a major war:
– Russian President Putin’s residence was targeted. In response, Russia struck Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and military bases with various missiles, with Oreshnik in particular.
– The US abducted Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. Trump announced that the US would intervene in Colombia and Mexico.
– The US declared that it would invade Greenland.
– European states officially announced their intention to deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of a “ceasefire.” Taking such a step without reaching an agreement with Russia would amount to open war.
– The US and the UK began seizing Russian ships by force in international waters.
– The al-Sharaa and Netanyahu governments reached an agreement under US supervision, easing Israel’s hand on the Syrian front ahead of an attack on Iran.
– The US and Israel are preparing for an attack on Iran. Protests that began over economic demands were manipulated into anti-regime demonstrations in Iran. The second step was the US imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. The next step is expected to be military intervention.
The US rejects multipolarity
The conclusions we can draw from this point are as follows:
– The post–World War II order has come to an end, and we are now in a period of deep uncertainty in which a new system has yet to be built.
– The US has declared that it will not accept multipolarity and use force to preserve its hegemony.
– From another perspective, the intensifying American aggression across a vast geography from Latin America to the Arctic and West Asia appears aimed at cutting off China’s energy and trade routes.
– At the same time, the goal is to eliminate power centers in different regions that refuse to accept American hegemony.
What will be the limits of the response to the US?
So, in these circumstances, we can determine the key factors that will shape the period ahead as follows:
– The future of the Trump administration (the outcome of the November 2026 midterm elections, developments in the Epstein files, disputes between the federal government and the states, social movements, etc.),
– The content and intensity of China’s responses to US moves,
– Whether the Russia–China alliance expands into the military sphere,
– How Russia and China would respond to a possible attack on Iran,
– Whether India’s drift away from the US continues,
– The future of US–Europe relations (Will NATO come to an end?),
– The depth and direction of rupture in Europe (Can the EU survive in its current form? Will centrist parties remain in power? Will the rise of parties such as AfD, the National Rally, and Reform UK continue? How will migration issues evolve?),
– The trajectory of the war in Ukraine and the risk of its expansion (the possibility of the war spreading to Moldova, Poland, and/or other countries),
– Whether Latin American countries build a concrete alliance (in military area) against US aggression,
– The presence and intensity of potential actions by anti-US forces in West Asia, particularly in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria,
– The future of regimes in the Gulf (decisive for oil prices),
– And Türkiye’s positioning (Will the “policy of balance” tilted toward the West continue? How would Türkiye respond to a possible attack on Iran? Will Türkiye and Israel reach an agreement under US control?, etc.),
– The possibility that global anti–US/Israel protests spread and become more radicalized.
Yes…
As the world searches for a new orbit, it continues to spin somewhere between the past and the future.