Cem Gürdeniz, a retired Rear Admiral of the Turkish Navy and one of the coiners of the term “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) shared his views on the war between Iran and US-Israel on the social platform X.
Focusing mainly on military and geopolitical aspects, Gürdeniz offers a trajectory analysis of the war.
We present Gürdeniz’s analysis, translated into English.
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1. For the US, the core issue is legitimacy in this war. The US entered the war without Congressional approval, and public support is less than 25%. This isn’t enough for a superpower to sustain a long war. Soon, the American public will start asking louder: “Is this for our national security or for Israel?” History, from Vietnam to Iraq, proves that the US cannot sustain a long war while its home front is divided.
2. Diplomacy no longer builds trust, it has become a mere extension of military maneuvers. If plans are being drawn on the battlefield while talks continue at the table, no state will take security guarantees seriously again. This marks a fundamental fracture in the global system.
3. The US is burning through high-end munitions. Production for long-range interceptors and precision-guided missiles is limited. If you produce 800 critical interceptors a year and fire two at every Iranian missile, a few hundred engagements will wipe out an entire year’s output. Furthermore, the rare metals required for these systems rely on Chinese supply chains. This war risks draining stockpiles intended for the Pacific, and if a crisis emerges in Taiwan tomorrow, the US may lack munitions. Additionally, Iran’s geography is vast. Long-range operations demand refueling and remote basing, thus sustainability of air and sea elements in the region creates a serious logistical burden. As Bahrain becomes more vulnerable, distant bases like Diego Garcia come into play, and this means a one-week turnaround for AEGIS destroyers.
4. Iran’s culture of resistance is being underestimated. Losing Khamenei would trigger an asymmetric surge in resistance. We are talking about a society that has endured 47 years of sanctions and experienced the Iran-Iraq War. Expecting internal cracks at this stage is unrealistic. External attacks don’t cause dissolution, but cohesion. A proud people like the Iranians do that.
5. Alarm bells are ringing for the Gulf countries. For monarchies with significant Shia populations, stability is vital. Steps taken by Israel and the US are undermining that. Every missile that hits a symbol like the Burj Al Arab or a US base erodes confidence in the “American security umbrella”. Gulf capitals now see that Israeli decisions are gambling with their peace, which could force them to either distance themselves from Washington or adopt a harder military stance. Either way, instability rises.
6. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would upend the global balance. The Houthis’ involvement in Bab el-Mandeb skyrockets insurance costs. Container shipping and energy exports from China to the EU take a massive hit. Oil price over $150 per barrel is a thing the US and European economy cannot tolerate. Such an energy shock would create political pressure within weeks.
7. Pakistan is also an important factor. As a nuclear power, its military ties with Saudi Arabia are important. It is no coincidence that the Pakistan-Taliban war flared up just as the US and Israel have entered war with Iran, also taking rapprochement between India and Israel. It is aimed to keep Islamabad distracted. Trump’s praise for Pakistani leadership is also no coincidence.
8. For Türkiye, the picture is clear: this is blatant Israeli aggression backed by American military power. Ankara knows that if Iran falls, the pressure shifts directly to Türkiye. Thus, standing by Iran is a geopolitical necessity. The unification of Kurdish groups in Iran is a serious security concern for Türkiye. Ankara must support moves that prevent these groups from uniting to form a puppet Kurdish state.
9. The US is fighting a war without legitimacy, with low public support, wasting precious munitions against a country whose resilience it underestimates. Iran will not collapse quickly. A regime change is unlikely.