Iran’s missile attack after the US assassination targeting Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, and Hashd Shaabi Commander al-Muhandis in Baghdad has opened a new era in the region.
This attack should be seen as a unique military action since America has not been targeted by an independent state since the Second World War. The United States had always taken its actions with the thought that no independent state is capable of attacking or responding back. Washington’s reputation and deterrent capability was a decisive factor of preventing its enemies from attacking and using their own right to defend themselves. The United States thought there was not a country that could respond with its military until Iran’s missile strikes targeted its bases.
Iran’s strikes have brought political consequences that have destroyed the American prestige, which is more than military action. The attack should be evaluated in two ways – one physical and one ideological.
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IDEOLOGICAL RESULTS
Ideologically speaking, this attack has broken the American cliché of deterrence. At this point, the world has learned that America could not protect its troops deployed in the region, as its prestige suggests. Today, this prestige has been collapsed, and this will bring a major change to the American military strategy. Iran’s proxy organizations threatening the US’s interests in the region have now further encouraged the fight against the United States. Iran’s strike has destroyed the taboo of “the invulnerable United States”, which happens to exist in many anti-US organizations in the region.
It has opened the gate for a new phase on the already present anti-imperialist front in West Asia, Europe, and even Latin America. It has also caused a serious disappointment on the front, which supports the American invulnerability.
PHYSICAL RESULTS
The physical damage of this attack on such a large US military base in the field is not officially known, but the information from the regional intelligence sources and media reports suggests that the extent of the damage is not insignificant. This has forced the American Administration to lie in the beginning by concealing the true extent of the damage. This situation has pushed the United States to gradually share the details of the damage to the public. Trump first started to say things were going well. After saying that there was minor equipment damage, the US military eventually announced that 11 wounded soldiers had been moved to Kuwait or to Germany. It is worth noting that the regional intelligence sources stated that the extent of the damage and the number of wounded troops are much, much larger than that.
But the United States, reluctant to give an answer – or avoiding to give it – is keeping the true size of the damage secret, in order to recover itself. In the end, this attack has hurt America both physically and spiritually. It is not possible for such a big power like America to tolerate this easily. Nevertheless, all the reasons, such as Iran’s strength, brave decisions and its readiness for war, have forced America to remain silent about this attack.
THE GULF AND ISRAEL ARE NO LONGER SAFE
After this attack, some Gulf countries, which have great relations with Israel and are funders of the United States to ensure their own security in the region, are the subject of one significant question, which is what their situation in the region will be like.
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This attack has revealed many truths and the extent of the fragility delusions. This has collapsed the arguments of American invulnerability and also destroyed Israel’s hopes. To regain its prestige and deterrence, Israel hid behind the discourse of nuclear weapons. This means the end of the world order in which the countries with nuclear weapons took over since it is impossible for one of these countries to use a nuclear strike while other countries stay down. If nuclear weapons are used, it would mean the elimination of all the countries that possess them and even the end of the whole world. This final scenario is not intended by anyone who possesses them.
For these reasons, the possibility of using nuclear weapons should be seriously discussed today. Other conventional weapons used in this attack, have added a new dimension to the conflict between West Asia and the US-led West today.
A NEW MOVE, A NEW GUARD
The aggressor has made it mandatory for the ones under attack to have tusks and claws that would prevent the said aggressor from achieving its targets. At the same time, the structures in the region that are gathered around the United States, such as Israel, need to think carefully that the west’s presence in the region is now a big question and their military services are not that much larger on the scale.
It should be considered that this attack has created a major strategic change. After the missile strike, all factions have been pushed to adjust their positions and to make calculations for their way forward.