By Adem Kılıç
Political scientist
In the last week alone, Israel’s destruction of an Iranian-controlled missile facility in Syria, the deployment of army forces to the Lebanese border, and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s announcement that the security cabinet has decided to “deepen its actions against Hezbollah and Houthi forces” have given us great clues about the future of the war.
Indeed, Netanyahu has largely succeeded in distracting international attention from both Biden’s 3-stage peace deal and the ceasefire agreement in Cairo. With these decisions, he has declared that he is “not interested in a ceasefire” and that he will continue his aggression by entering a new phase in the war.
In fact, in an environment where the US presidential candidates are competing in a “I love Israel more” race, it is not surprising that Netanyahu is emboldened and will escalate his aggression even further.
US Presidential candidates Trump and Harris recently held their first debate.
While these debates, which have been a tradition in the US for nearly 55 years, are usually dominated by domestic issues, this time the debate’s headlines were dominated by the “I love Israel more” debate.
Trump claimed that “only he can protect Israel” and accused Harris of “not supporting Israel enough”. Harris responded to Trump by saying, “I have dedicated my life to defending Israel and I will continue to do so.”
Meanwhile, on the ground, the US continues to act in a way that supports this rhetoric.
Having approved a batch of arms sales to Israel on Friday, the US continues to maintain its reinforced military deployment in the region.
For example, last week, simultaneously with the expiration of the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt, the US announced the deployment of the guided missile submarine USS Georgia in the region. The aircraft carrier is expected to be redeployed shortly.
Netanyahu will try to seize this opportunity
Netanyahu now has more than one reason to take military action.
First, according to Haaretz, Netanyahu has to give his first testimony in his trial for bribery and fraud in December. However, the High Court has the right to postpone this in the conditions of war.
Secondly, Netanyahu will have great support from the United States in all his steps until November, as the Trump-Harris debate showed. The Biden administration’s lack of support for Israel will be a minus for Harris and will strengthen Trump.
Thirdly, Netanyahu is aware that if Trump wins the US elections, he will already receive unconditional support and will try to make the most of this process by escalating the war.
The US and the Biden-Harris administration are aware of this and are helpless!
In fact, the US is too helpless to account for the US citizens killed by Israel, such as Rachel Corri, Shireen Akleh and Aysenur Ezgi Eygi!
The US is even too weak to jeopardize its own international existence by continuing to approve arms sales to Israel, despite international reports that bombs dropped on hospitals, mosques, refugee camps and schools in Gaza would make the US “complicit”!
In fact, the US is so impotent that it is willing to put a nail in the coffin of human rights, democracy and the Western-centered world order, which it claims to be the guardian of for centuries, in order to defend Israel!
This incapacity of the US and the fact that it has completely locked up institutions such as the UN, which can say “stop” with the right of veto, and this understanding, which has almost captured the world and dragged it into chaos, once again proved the rightness of President Erdoğan’s thesis that “The world is bigger than five”.
Yes, Netanyahu will continue to take steps in the coming days to turn this incapacity of the US into an opportunity by expanding the war, especially on the Lebanese front.
The world will be one step closer to “great chaos” because of the incapacity of one country and the interests of one person!