By Adem Kılıç,
Political scientist
The outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah brings to mind the “endless” wars in the region, such as those in Iraq and Syria, which are still going on.
Despite the recent escalation of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, developments already bear a strong resemblance to the 2006 war between the two countries.
With one difference. The scale of the violence.
According to Amnesty International, 1,100 people were killed in Lebanon and 34 in Israel during the 34-day war in 2006.
But in today’s tensions, in the last week alone, over 1,500 Lebanese, including Hassan Nasrallah, have lost their lives.
In other words, the death toll in just the first week of the conflict has surpassed the death toll of the entire 2006 war.
But why is the scale of this conflict so great?
There are two main reasons.
The first is that Netanyahu and his government, as the “most right-wing government” in Israel’s so-called history, accept every death and destruction as a victory.
The second is that Netanyahu and his so-called “far-right” government see this situation as an opportunity for themselves and the United States to capitalize on the electoral squeeze.
Netanyahu sees himself as the one who will decide Israel’s fate, as a leader who perceives threats that no one else can perceive, and as the “only one” who knows what needs to be done to ensure the country’s survival.
On the other hand, it is important to note another fact about the difference in these processes.
In the 2006 war, international institutions, including the US and the UN, stepped in to stop Israel’s aggression, whereas now, both the US and the UN are having trouble making decisions, and what is more, the decisions they are able to make are not recognized by Israel.
Moreover, because of Israel, the US has had to step back from its role as the “global gendarme”.
At this point, while the US will undoubtedly remain the “most powerful external player”, the “constructive” influence of Russia and China will become more and more recognized in the world.
Reading all these balances, Netanyahu has no intention of stopping!
After the predictions I made in my last two analyses, which unfortunately came true, I need to make a new prediction about Netanyahu.
At this point, Netanyahu will raise his hand even higher with the logic of a spoiled player who wins at the gambling table, and in the process leading to the US elections, he will try to use the next two months to “get the maximum benefit” and drag the region into a greater chaos with a land war.
This war has become a war in which Netanyahu wants to define Israel as a regional hegemonic power that no one can challenge.
This thesis is further vindicated and Israel’s hand is relaxed, especially considering the fact that Iran has taken almost no part in this war.
The region can no longer wait for a US that has lost all its weight. It has already become clear that the US does not have the power to take any steps before the elections.
The region must now take its own destiny into its own hands. Otherwise, a new catastrophic process is inevitable.