By Onur Sinan Güzaltan
The sidelining of hardliners in Zelenskyy’s government over corruption allegations, US Secretary of State Rubio’s refusal to attend the NATO summit, corruption probes against the figures in Brussels who are pro-war against Russia, the distance put between NATO and Europe in the US 2025 National Strategy Document; and German Chancellor Merz’s statement that “Pax Americana has come to an end”…
Simultaneously came the European Union’s fine on the social media platform X, and in response, a steady stream of anti-EU statements from Trump-aligned figures, most notably Elon Musk…
Yes, the weakening, and even the gradual disintegration, of the Atlantic Alliance is now a reality that everyone is beginning to acknowledge openly.
But what comes next…?
What kind of impact could this tendency of the Atlantic Alliance have on global developments?
Let’s outline a projection for the period ahead:
1. Russia and the US reach an agreement on the Ukraine issue.
2. Provocations by pro-war factions in the US and Europe aimed at widening and deepening the conflict (terrorist attacks, destabilization efforts in the Black Sea, attacks on civilians, and false-flag operations against Russia…) are neutralized.
3. The Zelenskyy administration in Ukraine is dismantled, and a more conciliatory government aligned with a US–Russia plan is put in place. (At this point, it is worth noting former Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s warnings about the possibility of civil war in Ukraine.)
4. Following the setback on the Ukraine front, pro-war governments in France, Germany, and the UK begin to seriously weaken. In subsequent elections, parties labeled as far-right (such as the National Rally, AfD, Reform UK, etc.) come to power and/or enter government as coalition partners with the center-right.
5. Rifts within the European Union deepen, and the bloc gradually enters a process of fragmentation. (While the continuation of the Customs Union appears likely, the future of the euro remains open to all scenarios.)
6. Europe gradually begins lifting sanctions on Russia.
7. With US involvement, energy trade between Europe and Russia resumes. American companies play a role here. (The possibility of reviving the Nord Stream pipeline with the involvement of US firms had previously been discussed in government circles and media.)
8. Russia accepts the continuation of a limited hegemony of the US dollar for a certain period. Moscow takes steps to tone down BRICS initiatives that directly targeting US interests, prominently in establishing an alternative currency to the dollar.
9. The US and China agree on a principle of coexistence. Reciprocal measures, particularly tariffs, are eased.
10. The US suspends its policy of pressuring China through the Taiwan and Uyghur issues.
11. China, the US, and Russia reach an understanding on spheres of influence in Europe and West Asia (a kind of Yalta 2.0).
12. The US eliminates the Netanyahu government, replacing it with a more conciliatory leadership.
13. With Russian and Chinese mediation, Iran’s nuclear development programs are slowed down.
14. A government is formed in Yemen through US–China–Russia mediation, bringing together the Houthis and other factions.
15. A tacit general ceasefire is reached between Iran and Israel.
16. Syria is reshaped in line with US and Russian interests. During this process, they avoid steps that could obstruct China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
17. Organizations that could disrupt the functioning of the newly established order in the region are eliminated.
18. Regimes in the Gulf countries are preserved under a US–China–Russia consortium.
19. Africa becomes a new arena of competition between the US, Russia and China.
20. Class movements gain momentum across Europe as the continent continues to lose its global dominance.
21. The United Kingdom turns politically inward.
22. Türkiye maintains the “policy of balance” between the US, Russia, and China.
Well, is such a world possible? Can major powers resolve what we call “irreconcilable contradictions” without resorting to war? Can the Atlantic consensus exit the stage without and before triggering a major war?
Is Trump in favor of such an order? Or would it be possible to sustain such an order after Trump?
Would a global order established with the compromise of the great powers actually be in favor of humanity?
The list of questions goes on…
After all, this is only a projection.
Now let’s consider the alternative scenario:
1. The US and Russia cannot reach an agreement on Ukraine.
2. Trump and Europe realign against Russia.
3. Tensions between the West and Russia escalate sharply. Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory increase, alongside a surge in Western-backed operations (assassinations, sabotages and attacks targeting civilians, etc.)
4. In parallel, unrest in countries (a new wave of “color revolutions”) and interstate tensions are stirred up in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where Russia has influence (tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia, dispute between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia, the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan border dispute, etc.)
5. China and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea step up their support for Russia.
6. The war in Ukraine spreads first to Moldova, and then toward Poland and Romania.
7. Political and military instability erupts in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.
8. West Asia becomes another center of confrontation between the East and the West. Attacks on US targets accelerate in multiple locations, particularly in Syria and Iraq.
9. Tensions between Iran and Israel intensify.
10. Israel expands its military operations to Syria and Lebanon in accordance with Gaza.
11. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to foreign shipping. Oil prices skyrocket.
12. Anti-regime popular uprisings break out in the Gulf monarchies and in Egypt.
13. The US ramps up its intervention in Venezuela. Russia and China openly support the Venezuelan military, while Washington hesitates over launching a ground invasion.
14. Social unrest within Europe accelerates. Protests driven by economic situation and migration intensify. In Germany, France, and the UK, elections are postponed under permanent “state of emergency” type of laws, or overt and covert interventions prevent parties against a war against Russia from participating in elections.
15. Internal turmoil driven by the economic situation and migration erupts in the US.
16. And China intervenes in Taiwan…
What follows is a scenario full of unknowns.
The world is walking on a knife’s edge. Both scenarios may partially materialize.
What is not of “unknowns” is that the contradictions between the East and the West have taken on the character of antagonistic contradictions. For that reason, any potential compromise is unlikely to prove permanent.
In 2026, these contradictions will deepen further.
Happy New Year…