UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan was guest to Russia Today French.
Güzaltan discussed the latest developments in the war between Iran and the US/Israel, the significance of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the possibility of a US “ground intervention.”
We are sharing Güzaltan’s views with our readers.
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Mr. Guzaltan, good evening to you.
Good evening.
While Donald Trump is promising to pause strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, we’re still seeing massive attacks today on Iran’s nuclear facilities. How should we interpret what’s happening?
Since the start of the war, and even before and during the 12-day war, both the Americans and the Israelis have used the word “negotiation” as a trap. Every time they talk about negotiations, we’ve seen new strikes against Iran. I believe that this time as well, Trump and the Israeli authorities are using the word “negotiation” to disguise their true intentions for a ground intervention. Right now, they are moving their new military troops into the region.
Do you believe a ground intervention is possible? We’re talking about nearly 10,000 American infantry troops on the ground. Can the US be successful? Is there a risk it will end up getting bogged down there?
Right now, the Americans and the Israelis are losing this war. Israeli cities have been completely destroyed, and American bases in the region and in the Gulf countries have been destroyed. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which means the petrodollar system is blocked. That’s why there is a possibility that the Americans might launch a ground intervention. The objectives of such an intervention could include Iran’s strategic centers or its oil facilities.
If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be controlled by the Iranians, can we then talk about an endless war, since the Strait will ultimately determine the terms of any future agreement?
Yes, absolutely. Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz. This is at the heart of the war now. In other words, Iran is capable of controlling the US petrodollar system. Even today, we have begun to see oil crises around the world. If the Americans fail to control the Strait of Hormuz, it will mean losing the war for them. That’s why they might attempt a ground intervention.
But I believe a ground intervention would backfire and make things worse for the Americans and Israelis. Because Iran has a strategy. There’s no division within the Iranian state apparatus. There’s also, we could say, a strong alliance between the Iranian state and people. There hasn’t been a “color revolution” as the US expected.
Thank you very much for your analysis.
Thank you too.
