By Islam Farag, reporting from Cairo, Egypt
Last February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Egypt, a remarkable development given years of friction between the two countries. During his important visit, Cairo and Ankara signed several agreements in the fields of tourism, culture and education.
At that time, the two presidents agreed to develop a working relationship on various issues, but the most important thing reached was the need for coordination in order to find common ground in dealing with the repercussions of Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip as well as addressing differences in sharing the gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean.
With 6 months having passed since the first summit, it seems that a second summit in Ankara has become necessary in order to strengthen the foundations agreed upon in Cairo.
Cooperation instead of competition
The visit by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi underscores the need for two parties to put aside their differences. The rapprochement remains part of a broader strategy for both countries to avoid potential geopolitical losses from the chaos sweeping the Middle East, the epicenter of which is the war in Gaza.
At the same time, the two parties realized after a long period of estrangement that the mutual benefits between them are too great to be left as prey to foreign regional and international parties that feed on such quarrels.
It can be said without exaggeration that the Egyptian President’s visit to Ankara represents a victory for the language of reason and diplomacy that the two sides have recently adopted and a logical result of the normalization process between the two countries, which has been cooked over a slow fire during the past three years.
Regional crises have pushed the two countries to adopt cooperation instead of competition as the only alternative option, especially since the two countries have a common history and mutual interests that cannot be compromised.
Therefore, the war in Gaza, which has been going on for 11 months, will be one of the most important topics on the agenda of the Ankara summit.
Addressing the war in the Strip is a top priority for both countries for geopolitical and historical reasons. While Gaza is an enclave adjacent to Egypt and was under its territorial control from 1957 until the 1967 war, Türkiye ruled it for nearly four centuries under the Ottoman Empire, and it is also one of the most vocal critics of Israel’s genocidal war on the Strip.
Just as Cairo played the role of mediator between Israel and various Palestinian groups, Ankara played a strong role in supporting the rights of the Palestinian people in various forms.
Even if there are minor differences between the two countries on the details of how to achieve the aspirations of the Palestinian people for an independent state, they will quickly disappear as the two countries agree on the need to give priority to saving the innocent people of Gaza through joint action to stop the war immediately. Their common position on this issue will be the greatest support for the efforts made in this regard and will enhance their regional standing.
Mutual concessions
The second issue that will occupy an important place on the agenda of the two leaders’ talks will likely be the conflict between the Libyan factions and ways to put the country on the right political track.
The two countries have clear differences over what vision should be adopted to bring stability to the North African country. At the same time, each of them supports opposing sides. But their concerns about the potential for the situation to deteriorate could be a catalyst for further efforts to reach common ground that guarantees Libya’s unity, ensuring that it does not become an arena for armed groups that could threaten regional security.
In my opinion, this issue cannot be resolved by the two countries without agreeing on ways to demarcate the special economic zones in the Mediterranean, in a way that does not deprive Türkiye of rights that it sees as just in the gas wealth of the region.
According to an informed source, Cairo has no objection at all to giving Ankara what it wants in the matter of determining maritime borders, in exchange for tangible Turkish concessions regarding the Libyan conflict.
The source believes that Turkish rights will never come at the expense of Cairo’s rights.
“Relations with Ankara open the door to further gains in the areas of energy transit and security, and even joint exploration”, he said.
Somali issue
The visit also coincides with the arrival of Egyptian military forces to Somalia, in preparation for participating in the African Union peacekeeping forces.
The Egyptian move aims to protect the stability and unity of Somalia, which is very important in maintaining the security of the Horn of Africa. It is an issue of common interest between Egypt and Türkiye.
Egypt supports Somalia in its dispute with Ethiopia, which signed a preliminary agreement with the Separatist territory of Somaliland under which Addis Ababa will obtain the right to use coastal lands in the port of Berbera in exchange for possible recognition of its independence from Somalia. It is an issue capable of unimaginably blowing up the situation in the region, and to which regional and international parties may be drawn.
Meanwhile, Türkiye has hosted two rounds of indirect talks since July between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland deal, which has yet to be finalized. A third round is expected within weeks.
Therefore, there can be no way for a summit at this level between Egypt and Türkiye to be held without discussing the Somali issue, especially since Ankara has considerable economic and military interests in this country.
A qualitative leap
In addition to all of these issues, bilateral relations will have a significant share on the summit agenda, especially the defense and economic aspects.
During the visit, Sisi will be accompanied by a large delegation of ministers, officials and businessmen, some of whom will participate in a meeting of the high-level strategic council for relations between the two countries.
Therefore, according to the source, the visit will witness the signing of agreements that enhance defense and economic cooperation.
“The leaders in the Egyptian army look with admiration at the products of the Turkish military industries”, the source added.
The Egyptian military establishment is interested in diversifying its weapons sources, and is seriously considering acquiring some fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets after failing to obtain the American F-35 aircraft.
The Turkish “Kaan” fighter is one of the alternatives before decision-makers, along with similar Chinese fighters. The Turkish alternative is a priority because Cairo fears American calculations that could see defense cooperation with China in this field as provocative.
The source expects that the discussion on defense cooperation between the two countries will occupy a large space during this visit, especially since it comes a few months after the visit of former Chief of Staff Osama Askar.
During the visit, Askar made an inspection tour that included a number of companies specialized in the field of defense industries in Ankara and Istanbul.
Therefore, during the visit, the two presidents may discuss ways to develop defense cooperation from the sales level to the joint manufacturing level, which in itself is a qualitative leap in bilateral relations.
On the economic level, the two presidents realize that the potential for trade exchange between the two countries is much greater than what is happening on the ground. Therefore, Sisi and Erdoğan may exploit the visit to enhance trade exchange in a way that truly reflects the potential of their countries.
In short, the second summit between the two presidents in less than a year reflects a mutual desire to act quickly to make up for what the years of estrangement have missed.