The next tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border: the target is Russia

The next tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border: the target is Russia

After the 44-day Second Karabakh War, the military-political balance has changed not only in the South Caucasus, but also all over the world. The United States and Europe no longer have a role to play in resolving conflicts around the world. The role of Turkey and Russia in world politics is already growing.

In the Second Karabakh War, the Turkish-Russian rapprochement led to peace, and after the November 10 tripartite agreement, serious steps were taken towards peace and reconciliation in the region. The 6-countries-platform for regional cooperation was proposed. This means no less then establishing a new world order, and the United States and the West will no doubt remain silent.

The West’s target is actually Russia and Turkey. In that perspective, they aim to disrupt the peace achieved in the South Caucasus and to create conditions for war again to begin with, and then to overshadow the efforts of Russian peacekeepers and to damage the reputation of Russia and Turkey in the region in consequence.

Prior to the June 20 parliamentary elections, Armenia’s military-political leadership was reluctant to create tensions on the border, because Nikol Pashinyan, who did not want to miss the chance to win the election, also tried to gain Russia’s trust before the election.

The election took place and Nikol Pashinyan won. Now, the Armenian government has already turned its course to the West and is acting at the behest of the United States and France. The United States and France, meanwhile, want another war to regain the prestige they lost in the 44-day war and they are ready to provide any military assistance to Armenia.

The approximate scenario is as follows:

The ceasefire is being violated on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border; there are tensions and deaths on both sides;

The activities of Russian peacekeepers become a subject of discussion; the notion is that Russia cannot maintain the ceasefire in the region;

Turkey and Azerbaijan are presented as aggressors and the West is asked for help;

The United States and France, along with other Western countries, provide military assistance to Armenia;

A short-lived war breaks out and the OSCE Minsk Group seeks to mediate again;

Finally, US and French peacekeeping forces are deployed to Karabakh.

In recent weeks, Armenia has been working tirelessly to implement this plan and has been perpetuating provocations on the state border between the two countries. There are already dead and wounded on the Azerbaijani side. The Armenian army is also suffering casualties.

This plan also constitutes blackmail against Russia. It serves to oust Russia from the region and to violate the November 10 agreement. In fact, this could start a new war in the South Caucasus, where not only Armenia and Azerbaijan would be parties to the conflict.

Turkey and Azerbaijan will have to act together with the Shusha Declaration. Russia will also have to take action against violations of the ceasefire under the agreements of November 10 and January 11.

Armenia, on the other hand, will call on Western countries to help, citing the fact that it is alone on the field. In recent days, the US Ambassador to Armenia, Lynn Tracy also visited the border between the two countries and got acquainted with the situation. French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Armenia also indicates new plans for the near future.

It’s time to sound the alarm. I think it is not accidental that at the last meeting of the Russian Security Council, along with the situation in Afghanistan, the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border was discussed.

Because Moscow is well aware of the connection between the events in Afghanistan and Karabakh and the intention of the United States to neutralize Russia in these two regions.

In any case, the newly elected US President Joe Biden did not accidentally call the Russian leader a “killer”. The United States has made no secret of its desire to punish Russia. This desire is coming true.

Ahmad Shahidov

Head of the Azerbaijan Institute for Democracy and Human Rights

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December 2022