Erdoğan is close to victory

Erdoğan is close to victory

Türkiye left behind a long but calm election night.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the Nation Alliance, and Sinan Oğan, the candidate of the Ata Alliance, competed against each other.

Official results are expected on May 19. According to unofficial numbers, President Erdoğan received 49.50% of the votes while Kılıçdaroğlu 44.89% and Oğan 5.17%. Muharrem İnce, the leader of the Homeland Party, who withdraw his candidacy due to a sex tape released three days before the election, received 0.44% of the votes.

The political branch of the PKK terrorist organization, Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has given Kılıçdaroğlu its support by not fielding a presidential candidate for the elections.

As a result, Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu, having ranked in the first two places, will compete in the second round of the presidential elections on 28 May.

Possibilities in the second round of the presidential election

As the second round is approaching, both the government and the opposition are making statements about Sinan Oğan and his voters, who have become the critical actor of the elections with 5.17% votes.

Presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın said the following in a TV program:

“Mr. Sinan’s (Oğan) vote is precious. 5.2 % of Turkish voters gave their votes to Sinan Oğan. There is a new dynamic. He also made a good election campaign. He voiced his own theses. Such as the fight against terrorism and refugees. We clearly saw his attitude against terrorist groups for the unity of the state.


We cannot know what their preferences will be in the second round. It would be rash to say that this 5.17 % vote as a whole will go this way or that way. That group will probably make their own assessments. Of course, Mr Sinan said that they will make evaluations. This is normal. He also put forward something clear: He said that keeping distance from terrorism is a priority for us. When you look at the political tradition that Mr. Sinan comes from, I know that his position is closer to the People’s Alliance. I am also personally acquainted with him. When we take all these issues into consideration, we think that the second round will be easier for us.

When asked if any talk took place between the AKP and Sinan Oğan, İbrahim Kalın answered: “There has been no such meeting so far. I cannot say something like it could happen today or tomorrow. We are focusing on our own campaign… If the positions coincide in terms of Türkiye’s national interests and fundamental national issues, we will evaluate accordingly. But at the moment we do not have any insistence to hold a meeting. We think that the second round will result in a favourable outcome for us as long as we maintain our position.

The other striking news was the meeting between Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Sinan Oğan. Engin Özkoç, a CHP executive, gave some information about the meeting. It seems that the meeting did not result in any tangible outcomes:

“It was quite a positive meeting. Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu congratulated Sinan Oğan… I do not think there is a difference in our thoughts about the expectations of our nation.”

Sinan Oğan, on the other hand, stated that they will announce which side they will support in the second round after a meeting with his companions. Oğan has set five indispensable preconditions regarding the candidate he would support.

1) Keeping non-amendable the first four articles of the Constitution;

2) Preventing the attempt to remove the definition of Turkishness in Article 66 of the Constitution (“Everyone bound to the Turkish state through the bond of citizenship is a Turk.”);

3) Sending 13 million refugees back;

4) Getting rid of the interest and inflation spiral as the main cause of the economic depression;

5) Keeping distance from terrorist organizations and their political structures.

Highlights of the parliamentary election results

In the parliamentary elections, the ruling party AKP retained the first place both in terms of vote rate and the number of parliamentary seats.

It was remarkable that the MHP increased its vote despite that some of its vote went to the Good Party and the Victory Party.

The CHP’s vote rate, once again, failed to reach the level expected by its supporters. Furthermore, a significant number of the deputies who entered parliament from the CHP lists are deputies from the other four parties of the Table of Six, namely Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), Felicity Party (SP), the Future Party (GP) and the Democrat Party (DP). Therefore, the CHP is likely to lose much strength in the parliament.

The political branch of the PKK terrorist organization, the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), participated in the elections under the name of the Green Left Party. The Labor and Freedom Alliance led by this party received 10.55% of the votes. The Green Left Party within the alliance received 8.82% of the votes and the Labor Party of Türkiye 1.73%. The votes of HDP, which entered the elections by changing its name, decreased. In 2018, it was 11.7%.

The Vatan Party received 54,789 votes in the parliamentary elections.

Overall, the People’s Alliance maintained its majority in the parliament whereas the Nation Alliance failed to reach its goal.

The vote rates and the number of parliamentary seats in the parliamentary elections are as follows:

PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE — 49.49% and 322

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) — 35.60% and 267

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) — 10.08% and 50

New Welfare Party — 2.82% and 5

Grand Unity Party (BBP) — 0.99% and 0

NATION ALLIANCE — 35.04% and 213

The Republican People’s Party (CHP) — 25.35% and 169

The Good Party — 9.70% and 44

The Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) — 14 (from CHP lists)

The Felicity Party (SP) — 10 (from CHP lists)

The Future Party (GP) — 10 (from CHP lists)

The Democrat Party (DP) — 3 (from CHP lists)


The Green Left Party — 8.82% and 61

The Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) — 1.73% and 4

ATA ALLIANCE — 2.43% and 0

The Victory Party — 2.23% and 0

The Justice Party — 0.20% and 0

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December 2023