By Mehmet Perinçek
We have long emphasized that the center of the global economy is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Western economists also admit this.
Most recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged that Asian countries are the main driving force of the global economy, while pointing to the decline of the US economy.
The US is in decline
According to Bloomberg, the IMF raised its global economic growth forecast by 0.1% to 3.3% in its updated World Economic Outlook report. The IMF highlighted that the main problem is the inflation in Western economies, which hampers economic growth by keeping interest rates high.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated, “It is concerning that a country like the United States, at full employment, maintains a fiscal stance that pushes its debt-to-GDP ratio steadily higher, with risks to both domestic and global economy.”
Growth of China and India
Conversely, the IMF raised China’s growth forecast by 0.4 points to 5% this year and 4.5% next year. It is driven by a recovery in private consumption and strong exports in the first quarter.
India’s growth forecast was raised to 7%, the highest among all global economies, driven by improvements in private consumption.
Bloomberg, referring to the IMF report, points out that high inflation is largely due to price pressures because of trade and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning commodities like oil.
The Economist too
The IMF’s report brings to mind a publication by The Economist dated May 9, 2024. The Economist had stated that the liberal world order is disintegrating and that its collapse could be sudden and irreversible. According to the British magazine, the order that has governed the global economy since World War II has been undermined, which renders it now very close to collapsing. The Economist wrote, “The slide towards anarchy could be rapid and severe.”
Either Mehmet Şimşek or BRICS
This change in the global economy closely concerns Türkiye. Especially under conditions of economic crisis.
There are two lines within the Turkish government: Some are aware of the problem and some are ignoring it. On one hand Türkiye seeks to join BRICS, on the other its destiny is being handed over to the Atlantic banks and funds.
It is impossible for these two lines to coexist. This contradiction must be resolved in the upcoming period in a way that aligns with the realities of the world. More precisely, those who will resolve this contradiction should govern the Turkish economy.