Türkiye is at a crossroads, says Bercan Tutar, an expert on international politics and columnist at Turkish daily newspaper Sabah. He states that the Russian Special military Operation in Ukraine in many ways is like Türkiye’s long-enduring fight against the terror organization PKK. Here are the reasons he states in the interview with UWI and also the choice Ankara faces.
Why does Türkiye understand Russia’s war in Ukraine?
This is similar to Türkiye’s fight against the PKK, which is seen as a fight against terrorism. Russia’s strategy looks quite convincing. It is conducting military action in such a way as to avoid civilian casualties and to avoid destroying Ukraine’s historical and civilian infrastructure and transportation system. Since Russia sees this as an operation to destroy Nazi forces or fascist structure directed by Europe, Zelenskyy and the military lobby around him, it is conducting it in the form of a special operation, not an all-out war that the US wants to launch with provocations by the UK. And since Putin adheres to this logic, this is the picture that emerges.
It didn’t show that Russia is weak, it showed that Russia is actually very strong and successful in a war of attrition. I mean, because we’ve seen how the military support, the ammunition that Europe and the US have been providing to Ukraine has diminished. On the humanitarian side, their strength is not enough. The sanctions’ policy has completely failed. So whichever way you look at it, Russia seems to be succeeding.
I think Türkiye’s role in this war is worth analyzing. In the beginning, for example, it was a mediator and stood at an equal distance from both sides. This was actually in line with Russia’s policy. In other words, the fact that a NATO member country showed such a stance and did not impose an embargo against Russia initially drew criticism from the US. In fact, countries such as China, India and Türkiye were attacked in this sense that remaining neutral meant actually helping Russia. The US tried to get these countries on its side, but without success. For them, maintaining neutrality was a big deal.
What is the US’s main target in Türkiye?
The US’s main goal is to get Türkiye on its side against the Russia-China bloc. This is its strategy. Even Biden, in an interview he gave to the New York Times during his campaign before his election, said: We have to overthrow Erdoğan, if not militarily, then politically”. When asked, “Why?” he said, “Because he took a bite out of the forbidden apple”. The forbidden apple is Russia. In other words, deepening relations and strategic ties with the Kremlin is always the biggest threat to the US.
Imagine, even the US presidential candidate Trump has been targeted for saying, “I will sit down at the negotiating table with Russia”. Those who do this to one of their presidential candidates just because he wants to establish good relations with the Russians can do the same with Türkiye. I think our government is also aware of this, but we don’t see it at all levels.
In my opinion, the most influential organization in Türkiye is the organization of the US. In other words, if we face the PKK, the Fethullah Gülen Terrorist Organization (FETÖ), the Greek Cypriot administration, Greece or Armenia, the US is always behind them. It is also the same in Syria. Our fight against these organizations and countries is actually a fight against the US and the West. So, it would be useful for Türkiye to look at events from this perspective. The government believes the same, but if we look at the whole picture, we should see the fight against terrorism as a conflict with the West. That is how it should be perceived. How successful are we in this fight? The further we go, the more effective our war on terrorism will be, and the position of the PKK and FETÖ depends on our success in confronting the West.
Whom is Türkiye expected to betray for the sake of friendship with the US?
We try to maintain good relations with the US, our best strategic ally, but on the other hand, FETÖ, which is supported by the US, is making new expansions, opening schools, getting stronger and continuing its propaganda. If you look at the PKK and PYD, they have not taken a single step backward in Syria. The US has not withdrawn the support it gives to these terrorist organizations and has openly demonstrated this. Other operations are adding to that. The US’ agreement with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus is of strategic importance to Türkiye. Here is a strategic region to Türkiye. Controlling Cyprus actually means dominance in West Asia. It also indicates projects related to this region.
All of them, whether in Syria, Germany or Europe, whether carried out through the PKK or American structures in the Eastern Mediterranean, are aimed at Russia. The secondary target is Türkiye. In other words, it is about slowing down and encircling Russia through Türkiye. In this sense, we must make a decision: either we will be fully oriented towards the US and deploy as an outpost against the Russians, or we will pursue a very conscious policy, proclaiming our independence. Türkiye is now oscillating between these two options and is actually in a transition period.
I hope that we will get out of this situation soon. Of course, Türkiye cannot fight against the Western bloc alone. If Türkiye is going to do it, it needs to take Russia, China, the non-aligned countries, Iran and its neighbors with it. If not, Türkiye will need to go back to the old NATO policy. So now you must make a choice, because the US leaves no other options. It says: either you are with me, or you are the enemy. That means we have to know how the Americans look at us. Our opinion doesn’t matter to them. We need to understand what they want and expect from us. And we see this in their campaign against Russia.