By Serhat Latifoğlu
Following the attack on Iran by the imperialist US and Zionist Israel, Tehran quickly regrouped and regained both military and psychological superiority.
Within just a few days, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices back up to the $100 level for the first time in years, placing global energy supply concerns at the center of the agenda all around the world.
However, the core issue is not merely oil prices. Today’s global economy rests on an extremely fragile structure built around cost minimization, precision logistics, and just-in-time production principles. While this model has created the most efficient economic machine in history, it has also produced an unprecedented system of interdependence. Supply chains, which have effectively become the “hidden constitution” of the global economy, can trigger a cascading crisis if a single strategic choke point like Hormuz is shut down. Such a shock would not only lead to economic slowdown but could also generate a domino effect across a wide range of sectors from energy and chemical inputs to metallurgy and digital infrastructure.
For this reason, we’ll now take a closer look at the potential crisis scenarios being put forward by various international investment banks and researchers in the context of the Strait of Hormuz.
Chemical and industrial chain reaction (2-6 weeks)
In the first phase of the crisis, which is currently unfolding, oil prices are rising globally. Due to increasing risks in maritime transport, insurance companies are raising the cost of their policies.
The second phase of the scenarios corresponds to the period we have just entered. In this phase, the world is confronted with the reality that crude oil is not only a fuel, but also a critical chemical feedstock. Oil from the Gulf is the primary source of global sulfur production. A disruption in sulfur supply paralyzes the production of sulfuric acid, one of the most fundamental inputs of modern industry. Without sulfuric acid, fertilizers cannot be produced, water cannot be treated, and the pharmaceutical industry cannot operate.
In particular, a surge of over 100% in sulfuric acid prices within a month in Asian markets would distort industrial cost structures and force factories to shut down.
Mining and energy grid crisis (1-3 months)
A shortage of sulfuric acid directly undermines the production of strategic metals. Copper and cobalt mining depend on acid-based extraction processes. A contraction in global copper supply would halt the renewal of energy grids worldwide and the construction of AI data centers.
When there is no copper, which is essential for the production of transformers, the backbone of power transmission systems, waiting times can extend up to four years. This marks the point at which the vision of “accelerated technology” collides with hard physical limits.
Digital collapse: Semiconductors and data centers
One of the main claims put forward by mainstream economists is that digital technologies are independent of heavy industry. In reality, this is not the case. Taiwan meets a large portion of its energy needs through imported natural gas and has reserves sufficient for only 11 days. Power restrictions triggered by a disruption in gas supply would halt production in chip factories (such as TSMC). Even the slightest voltage fluctuation can render tens of thousands of sensitive chips broken.
A chip crisis would hit data centers and thus all internet-based systems. Server infrastructures cannot function without copper wiring and a stable electricity supply.
Social and political repercussions (6-12 months)
As the crisis spreads from the physical economy into social life, inflation ceases to be a temporary phenomenon and turns into a destructive force. A shortage of natural gas disrupts fertilizer production. Rising fertilizer prices, in turn, drive food prices beyond the reach of the public.
Countries dependent on external resources and following neoliberal/orthodox/mainstream economic policies would face “bread riots” and social unrest. Food shortages would no longer be merely a humanitarian aid issue, but a political crisis powerful enough to topple governments. Instability in urban areas would lead to the breakdown of public order, ushering in a process of “global chaos”.
Financial markets and credit collapse
Rising costs make profitability impossible for industrial companies. Heavy industry giants become unable to pay their debts due to soaring raw material costs. Developing countries’ local currencies lose value, while they deplete their foreign exchange reserves to purchase energy.
Credit markets freeze, as no one can reliably calculate future costs. The inability to foresee marks the end of both investment and economic activity.
State intervention and inward turning
When market order collapses, states abandon the idea of “free trade” and shift into “survival mode”. Rationing systems come into force. Governments place resources such as oil, chips, and food under strict allocation and ban their export. Trade routes are no longer used freely but under naval escort. Countries launch massive projects to stockpile critical minerals. Globalization gives way to inward-looking, mutually hostile “armed blocs”.
Final outcome: The redesign of the global economy
The final stage of these cascading effects is a permanent structural transformation.
The world ceases to be an integrated trading system and instead becomes one defined by scarcity, coercion and state-controlled distribution.
Modern humanity, in its pursuit of “efficiency,” realizes far too late the scale of the risk it has taken.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not merely mean the shutdown of a route, but the collapse of supply chains, and perhaps the construction of a new system.