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01/11/2020

WILL QASSEM SOLEIMANI’S LETTER REACH ITS DESTINATION?

WILL QASSEM SOLEIMANI’S LETTER REACH ITS DESTINATION?

With the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the United States declared to the world that it had not conceded defeat in the Middle East, and would continue its aggresion.

However, having been weakened military, economy and politically, the United States is unlikely to continue this war alone.

At this point, there are indications that Washington has put a plan in place to use some of the countries and people groups in the region against Iran and Turkey by further inciting existing conflicts and contradictions.

The US’ assassination of Qassem Soleimani and the policies the US maintains in Libya are crucial parts of this plan.

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TWO PHASES AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE US’ PLAN

The US’ plan has two phases:

  1. To provoke Iran and Sunni Arab countries against each other and to turn already strained relations into an open conflict.
  2. To force clashes between Arab countries, especially Egypt and Turkey, through the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Haftar in Libya.

How will the plan be implemented?

  1. After the assassination of Soleimani, the first thing that the United States and its collaborators did was to highlight publications and discourses that emphasizes sectarian differences.

In this direction, in the coming days:

  1. It is possible that, in Arab countries where Sunnis and Shiites live together, attacks targeting Sunnis and broadcasts that hold Iran responsible for the attacks will be advanced.
  2. The US will foment clashes between Iran and the Gulf states in different parts of the region, especially near the Gulf area.
  3. At the same time, with the assassination of Soleimani, the United States has made moves in Libya advancing its strategy of exploiting the conflict between the GNA and Haftar.

In the first week of January, the US Embassy in Libya issued two critical statements in this direction. The information was shared that American officials had met with the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), the statement stressing that “the possibility of a foreign military intervention that threatens Libya’s sovereignty is high.” At the end of this statement, it is noted that the United States and the GNA could take joint actions against  militia forces in Libya.

In the second statement, the attack on the Military School belonging to the GNA was condemned, without giving the names of the countries or groups that carried out the attack. In the second part of this statement, Turkey’s activities in Libya were targeted, and positive messages were given to Haftar’s supporters.

In addition to this US’ statements, US/Israeli and the Gulf media published a considerable amount of disinformation intended to provoke an open conflict between Turkey and Egypt in Libya.

Given this information:

  1. It is not difficult to make the assessment that the United States is trying to shift the ground on which Ankara is based on in Libya by plucking the GNA and/or the groups affiliated with the GNA from Turkey.
  2. That provocations will be made on the ground, while disinformation is spread aimed at provoking a confrontation between Turkish and Egyptian forces. One example was a false report by Israel-based DEBKAfile which said that Egyptian tanks had entered Libya to counter Turkish troops.

THE GOAL OF THE PLAN

The US’ plan, has two goals, one medium and one in the long term.

  1. In the medium term, the plan is to inflate the hostility towards Turkey-Iran axis in the Arab world and to make them forget their hostility towards Israel. In fact, they hope to make Israel an ally of the Arabs against the Turks and The Persians in order to secure Tel Aviv.

The experts we interviewed in Cairo shared the information that there had been intense efforts by the United Arab Emirates and Israel in this direction.

  1. In the long term, preventing China from accessing the region and limiting Russia’s field of action by inciting endless wars between the states of the region.

HOW CAN THE US’ PLAN BE COUNTERED?

The best way to disrupt the US plan is to deliver the letter found in Soleimani’s pocket after his dispicable assassination by Washington.

Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi has announced to the press that Soleimani’s letter was addressed to Saudi Arabia.

If Soleimani had not been killed, he would have delivered a message to Saudi Arabia through Iraq.

Only the writers of the letter would know the content… However, it is worth mentioning the words repeated over and over by Iranian Foreign Minister Kazem Sajjadpour: “As Iran and Turkey’s cooperation addresses conflicts in the region, the region will continue to grow safer. Turkey and Iran should cooperate with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. (…) Four regional players in the Middle East, West Asia and North Africa would be better off working together. This cooperation of regional actors will benefit the region.”

In accordance with Sajjadpour’s statements, delivering Soleimani’s letter to its address will stagger the United States.

The way to completely sweep Washington’s feet off the ground is to send a similar letter from Ankara to Cairo.

I do not know who is going to deliver the letter, but I know very well that such a letter will help cement regional cooperation, and would definitely help knock Washington out of the picture for good.

 
Onur Sinan Güzaltan
Onur Sinan Güzaltan was born in Istanbul in 1985. He had his Bachelors's degree in Law, from the Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne Universty /Paris XII and a Master's degree in International and European Law. He got his certificate of diploma equivalence at Galatasaray University. Later, he got a Master's degree in International Trade Law, at the Institut de Droit des Affaires Internationales, founded jointly by the Sorbonne Universty and the Cairo Universty. In this process, he had served as the Cairo representative for the Aydinlik Newspaper. He has several articles and television streams within the international press, in such as People's Daily, Al Yaum, Al Ahram, Russia Today FranceAl Youm Al Sabea. In addition to being the author of the Tanrı Bizi İster Mi?, a work that studies the 2011-2013 political period in Egypt, he had also contributed to the multi-author study titled Ortadoğu Çıkmazında Türkiye, with an article that focused on the Turkish-Egyptian relations. While currently working as a lawyer, he also writes a weekly column for Aydinlik Newspaper on the subject of international politics and geopolitics.

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