The war that began on February 28 with US/Israeli airstrikes on Iranian cities continues.
The boundaries of the war, both in terms of time and geography, remain unclear. It is likely to prolong and spread…
The conclusions from the first act;
1. The US/Israel failed to achieve their strategic objectives regarding Iran (overthrow of the regime, Color Revolution, ethnic uprisings, civil war, disintegration of the military and bureaucracy).
2. Iran inflicted heavy losses on the US through Israel and military bases. The US/Israel’s request for a ceasefire from Iran at the end of the first week is a concrete indication of this.
3. Images and news from Israeli cities indicate that Israel’s infrastructure has collapsed and the possibility of civil disobedience in the country is increasing.
4. Iran pursued a strategy targeting the petrodollar system via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that the price of oil almost doubled (from $63 to $110) by the end of the first week of the war shows that Iran’s strategy targeting the global financial system was successful.
5. The US’s “friends” are hesitant to enter the war. Europe and the Gulf countries are unwilling to take concrete steps against Iran. Kurdish separatist groups in the region, acting in concert with the US/Israel, are reluctant to enter the war. The rift between the US and its closest ally, the UK, is deepening.
6. The US/Israel frequently resort to false flag operations. It is likely that in the coming period, the US/Israel will continue these false flag operations and political pressure to draw Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Gulf countries into war.
7. The fall of the Bahraini regime has created a significant rift in the US/Israel camp… This development has caused panic in other Gulf countries, and to avoid suffering the same fate (there is a considerable Shiite population in the Gulf countries), they will try to distance themselves from the US/Israel.
8. The election of Mojtaba Khamenei as religious leader signals that Iran will continue its tough political stance, uncompromising in its national interests. With this election, the Iranian government is announcing its readiness to continue the war.
9. Hezbollah, Ansarullah, and other resistance organizations in the region have not yet fully engaged in the war. If these groups become more heavily involved, Israel is highly likely to suffer heavy losses, especially in a ground war with Hezbollah…
10. Russia and China are silently but concretely continuing their support for Iran. In this regard, what Iranian Foreign Minister Arakchi said—or didn’t say—in his NBC News interview regarding Russia’s military support for Iran is significant. The Russian ambassador to London also explicitly stated that Russia is not neutral but is on Iran’s side. On the other hand, China is demonstrating its support for Iran outside of conventional diplomatic norms. Many believe that this support from China is not merely verbal but is concretely manifested in military and intelligence areas.
11. The possibility of the US/Israel using weapons of mass destruction:
– If the course of the war goes against them (which is currently the case, as they are unable to achieve their strategic objectives and are suffering heavy losses),
– And if they have definitive knowledge that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, the US/Israel, with no legal or moral limits, has the potential to use any kind of weapon of mass destruction against Iran (the targeting of oil facilities around Tehran, aiming to burn alive (acid rain) or poison more than 10 million people, is a chemical attack that can be considered within this context).
This possibility could be prevented if Iran possesses the means to respond to such attacks (there is no definitive information on this matter) and, on the other hand, if China, Russia, and its neighbors concretely stand by Iran.
In short, it is doubtful how long the US/Israel can bear the burden of this war, which has caused a major crack in the global financial system. On the other hand, a defeat in this war would mean the end of the US empire and surrender to the trend of global multipolarity. In such an equation, it seems impossible for Israel to maintain its presence in the region in its current form.
Developments indicate that the day is approaching when Trump and Netanyahu will pay a price for their wrong choice far more than the loss of their power.
