By Mehmet Enes Beşer
Throughout ASEAN’s existence, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has always been a cornerstone in terms of regional stability and development in Southeast Asia. With the advent of new global political developments, the ability of ASEAN to adapt and retain its centrality is put to the test. During its Chairmanship in 2025, ASEAN faces various problems in the form of the protracted Myanmar crisis, disputed territories in the South China Sea, and the possibility of changes in US foreign policy during the re-election of President Donald Trump for a second term.
Assessment of the ASEAN Unity and Principles in Relation to the Myanmar Crisis
The longstanding civil conflict in Myanmar initiated due to the military coup in 2021 has resulted in many deaths and refugee movements. ASEAN’s usual practice of non-interference is undermined as the union is required to address the situation. The efforts of Malaysia in dealing with the ongoing crisis are notable – during its Chairmanship in 2025, the ASEAN diplomatic initiatives to settle the situation were increased dramatically. At the retreat held in Langkawi, the foreign ministers agreed on the necessity to ensure inclusiveness in the ongoing political dialogue in Myanmar. Recognizing the inability to find a solution through previous means, Malaysia appointed a special envoy to Myanmar – Othman Hashim, whose mission includes dialogue with the military government, as well as representatives of other parties, namely the ethnic armed organizations and the National Unity Government (NUG).
However, ASEAN’s efforts in solving the conflict are hindered by internal disagreements and contradictions. Namely, the countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines believe that greater pressure should be placed on the regime, while others, including Thailand and Cambodia, focus on engagement with the junta to keep the situation stable in the region. This problem has been preventing ASEAN from making decisions on this matter and implementing them.
Additionally, one must note that the very nature of ASEAN decision-making process hinders its activity in this case. Namely, ASEAN follows a principle of consensus decision-making, meaning that the organization can hardly make any move in situations where the unanimity of positions of all member-states cannot be ensured. In the case of Myanmar, the problem persists because of disagreement on whether sanctions should be imposed on the military government. In light of this situation, proposals regarding reforming the current structure and ensuring the possibility to take actions even without consensus are being voiced.
Nonetheless, one cannot underestimate the role of ASEAN in solving the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. For instance, one of the ways of addressing the situation is diplomatic coordination with international organizations and countries like China and the USA. As the process continues, the question of ensuring consistent pressure on the junta while providing aid to the victims of conflict remains the main task of the organization.
Issues Related to the South China Sea Disputes
For quite some time, the South China Sea has remained a source of conflict due to overlapping territories owned by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. The tensions have been exacerbated by the increasing number of clashes and direct confrontations involving Chinese and Philippine vessels. The latest example in this regard is the Second Thomas Shoal incident when Filipino vessels had to defend themselves against Chinese ships’ attacks.
In light of all this, there has been a call for accelerating the process of negotiating the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct (COC), as the ongoing tensions and escalations are undermining the stability of the region. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has encouraged such initiative, arguing that the negotiations are necessary for mitigating existing problems. It has been discussed since 2002; however, as far as China is concerned, it seems impossible to find the ground for agreeing on all the aspects mentioned above.
ASEAN’s role in solving the problems associated with South China Sea has mostly remained diplomatic and aimed at ensuring peacefulness of the process and preserving stability and security of the region. One of the major steps taken by the organization in this respect has been negotiating the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct (COC) that will help manage disputes and prevent possible conflicts. However, as mentioned above, the discussions related to this matter started back in 2002, but no agreement has been reached until now because of disagreements in regard to the legal framework, methods for enforcing this code of conduct, and China’s military presence in the area.
During Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025, the problem has become more acute than ever. President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called for adopting the legally binding Code of Conduct (COC) that would enable better managing existing controversies and preventing conflicts. Additionally, his administration has been actively building defense ties with such countries as the USA and Japan, which is seen negatively by China as a part of the larger containment effort.
One of the biggest issues faced by ASEAN member-states is the increasing militarization of China in the South China Sea through establishing artificial islands, as well as sending naval and paramilitary forces to disputed areas. Moreover, the activities of Chinese coast guard in these regions continue despite the protests voiced by other countries claiming ownership of these areas. The Philippines is the biggest object of concern since the latest clash in the Second Thomas Shoal is seen as the sign of the escalation of the tensions.
As mentioned before, ASEAN has traditionally followed the consensus-based decision-making paradigm, meaning that it has rarely made any attempts to impose sanctions and other forms of pressure on any state. However, with the increasing military presence of China and growing tension in the region, some changes are required as there is a risk of the situation getting out of control. As one can see, the positions held by various ASEAN member-states are different depending on how dependent they are on China economically. Thus, for instance, Cambodia and Laos are unlikely to support tough measures, as opposed to the Philippines and Vietnam.
In the light of this, ASEAN might seek a way to improve cooperation with other countries in the area. Namely, Vietnam and the Philippines would probably like to enhance their security and build more strategic relations with such states as the USA, Japan, and Australia. In turn, the involvement of these countries can lead to additional problems in the region.
Shifts in US Foreign Policy: Implications for Major Power Relations
The likely re-election of President Trump has brought about some concerns related to US foreign policy towards Southeast Asia. Given Trump’s tendency to emphasize the significance of defense and security in the context of protectionism in the economy, ASEAN needs to develop its policy in a way that would ensure good relations with the US while being balanced. The Malaysian prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, believes that the impact of this change will only be temporary as global trade will overcome it eventually. Besides, he sees the need to maintain good relations with the US while recognizing the increasing influence of China in the region.
Among the problems that arise in connection with the Trump administration, it is necessary to mention economic protectionism, which has led to imposing various types of taxes on goods imported from other countries. In this regard, the plans are to negotiate the tariffs during the ASEAN summit scheduled to take place with the US administration to make sure that these actions have minimal consequences for member states’ economies.
In the security sphere, the USA has been building military ties with Southeast Asian countries, thereby ensuring that its influence remains dominant despite the growth of China’s power. Namely, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the USA and the Philippines has allowed the former to gain access to Philippine military bases and carry out military exercises in Southeast Asia, which ensures that its military presence in the region is strengthened.
All in all, it is important to maintain the centrality and unity of ASEAN regardless of the shifts in major powers’ politics. In this regard, ASEAN needs to focus on developing partnerships with all relevant actors, including the USA and China while maintaining good trade relationships with member states.
Centrality of ASEAN: Opportunities
At this turning point in ASEAN’s history, it is necessary to pay attention to both the existing challenges and opportunities that it has. On the one hand, it is important to acknowledge that the internal contradictions in the bloc and the growing influence of China pose a threat to ASEAN’s position in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, there is a chance to reinforce the status of the bloc through various measures.
Firstly, the adoption and implementation of economic initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can help ASEAN in ensuring stronger intra-regional trade and representing itself in the global market as a single economic entity. Secondly, as one can see, ASEAN can be a mediator for addressing conflicts in the region and promoting dialogue between conflicting parties, thereby playing the role of a stabilizer. Lastly, by optimizing its decision-making process and developing mechanisms for collective actions, ASEAN can increase its authority and effectiveness in solving problems.