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07/17/2018

Geopolitical Future of Poland

Geopolitical Future of Poland

US offer for Poland the political strategy that simply can be defined as : “We will try to strengthen our industry at the expense of German plants in Poland, and you in return will pay – A LOT! – for our gas, coal and weapons, and let Israel manhandle and humiliate you a bit“. Well, and supporters of such a business are daring to criticize the COMECON and the Warsaw Pact…

Aggressive Negotiations

Donald Trump’s relations with Western European countries (not only with the European Union as a whole, but also with individual member countries, leaded, of course, by Germany) have entered a confrontation phase. Which, of course, does not mean a permanent break – only the stage of striving for a more intensive and faster American economic exploitation of Europe, with limiting its competitive capabilities. That is a point of enforcing the reduction of trade and investment relations with China, Iran and Russia, as well as the promotion of “anti-immigration” policy, hitting (whatever especially Eastern Europeans think about it) in the European labour potential. It is not a trade-war yet, the American victory (more than possible because of the clear dependability of the European political class) will probably not be indisputable and not under the conditions so radical and ultimate, as Trump once again announced during his journey through the Old Continent – but in fact, for the first time from decades – something potentially interesting is happening on an extremely boring and organised by the American hegemony the Western part of the geopolitical chessboard. Something – which does not mean at all that anything beneficial for Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe at all, although present stagnation seems to be the worst what our nations faces.

Middle-Europe

Some observers already try to draw very far-reaching visions of changes in Polish international position, basing on so curt information we have from Brussel, London and Helsinki. But all of them, however, clearly disregard both the real meaning of our country and the internal and foreign circumstance, which immanently restricts existence and development of the Third Polish Republic. Unfortunately, it is absolutely clear, that at American-European fairs and ballets – Poland will not win anything, because it is just used in these plays as a thin stick stuck in European wheels – and it is designated to be broken. The American concept (as we can guess it now) does not include any benefits for Poland and other countries in the region, but only costs and threats. By the way, when we hear about “The Mitteleuropa” on such occasions – it seems to be historically valid, because we are again to be an exploitation area of ​​the World Great Power, serving in the same time to satisfy Zionist political-economic interests. If, then, the geopolitical change should actually take place – it is rather in the form of a 100-year turn of the history wheel back, paradoxically this turn not in the German interest, but against it – but also above all against Poland.

The key to our national ratio status is one aspect, which is never enough to remind. Whether we like it or not (as a result of all the fatalities of the anti-Polish experiment known as the Third Polish Republic), the Polish economy is just part of the German economy. Possible further American economic activity against Germans – will also have adverse consequences for Poles as their subcontractors. And Washington does not offer any compensation.

Dreams and Reality

Generally, we should not have any illusions that we are dealing with a game which is changing so much only to keep everything the same. But is obviously the moment as good as any other, to look at the current geopolitical scenarios for Poland. Among the conceivable for today, we should distinguish:

– UTOPIAN – Poland throws away dependence on foreign powers, rebuilds its economy, and leaves all international agreements blocking its development. As a result, Poles will create their geopolitical reality based on possessed potential, recovered assets and restored reason of state. What next? DEVELOPMENT AND SAFETY.

– DREAMY – owing to cooperation with the United States, Poland rejects dependence on the European Union, participates in the organization of a new (American) international order in the Central Europe, and then with all comrades will dispose American domination. As a result, we promise not to smoke this stuff anymore.

– REALISTIC / PESIMISTIC – Poland takes part in the US game with the European Union, makes purchases and expenditures required by the US, and at the same time bears costs as a subcontractor of the German economy, subject to US pressure. When the US will reach agreement with the EU – we are at the starting point, minus the money given to Americans (and Zionist) and without German factories in our territory. As a result, budget expenditures increase, production dynamics decrease, we have employment and budget inflows reduction, and slowdown in GDP growth. The result is STAGNATION.

– POSSIBLE – Poland does not participate in the US game with the European Union, does not make the expenses required by the US, but also does not attempt to make the Polish economy independent from the German one. We are in the same current trap of average growth, restricted by the economic situation of Germany and the entire Eurozone. As in point 3, we bear the costs of the American-European game, we do not have instruments for independent development. In the case of a partial emancipation of Europe from America – we are improving our situation in terms of security, while the economic improvement is possible for us only if Brussels / Berlin find any idea for Europe. Probable future? INERTIA.

For the scientific purity, we can put aside beloved by Poles options with direct intervention of the Holly Mother and the Polish-Chinese alliance. The realities are such that it is not Poland that plays. Poland is played – and we allow it…

Konrad Rękas
Political expert, geopolitical analyst (Poland)