UWI author and political scientist Onur Sinan Güzaltan gave a presentation on the consequences of the Iran/US-Israel war and possible future developments at a conference titled “Energy and the Global Economy: Its Significance and Impact in the Aftermath of the Ukrainian and Middle East Crises” organized by the Russian House International Relations Club in Mumbai, India. We present Güzaltan’s speech to our valued readers.
Dear Professors, dear guests, dear audience,
Firstly, I would like to thank the organizing committee for inviting me to this valuable meeting.
I am glad to be with these distinguished guests.
Today I would like to share my assessments regarding the war in Iran with you.
We are in a period when a new world is emerging…
And as a result, we are going through difficult times…
As the Italian revolutionary Gramsci said, “The old world is dying, the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters…”
The United States, Israel, and their allies continue their wars to keep the old world, Ancien Régime alive.
The United States imposed a unipolar world on humanity after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The wars in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria were a consequence of the US imposition of a unipolar world order.
The aim of the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran is also to maintain the old regime, the unipolar American hegemony.
But on the Iranian front, they ran into resistance they didn’t expect…
The Iranian state and its people have resisted and continue to resist the American-Israeli attacks.
Cities under Israeli occupation and American bases in the region have been successfully targeted by Iranian forces.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed.
It is also likely that Bab el-Mandeb will soon be closed…
The myth that the US and Israel are “invincible” and “untouchable” has suffered a major blow.
We are in a process where oppressed states and nations around the world are rising up.
So, what will happen now…?
Where is this process taking us…?
I would like to share with you my future-oriented implications regarding this issue…
1. Since the beginning of the war, Iran has successfully targeted American bases in the Gulf countries. This situation has called into question not only the American presence in the region but also the existence of the Gulf Monarchies, which are cooperating with America and, indirectly, with Israel. In the coming period, Gulf countries might move away from the US line. They could start teaming up with China and Russia, and look for regional solutions… In the Gulf countries that still stick with the US, we could see anti-regime protests, social movements similar to Arab Spring… I’m talking about an Arab Spring that isn’t orchestrated by the West, but on the contrary, one that stands against the West.
2. Iran is targeting not only oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf, but primarily the petrodollar system that sustains the American Empire. The weakening of the petrodollar system also means the weakening of the US dollar. In the coming period, it is likely that we will witness the collapse of the Dollar Empire, declared by Richard Nixon in 1971. At this point, the economic projects of China and Russia will be decisive. For example, the process of creating a new currency alternative to the US dollar through BRICS could accelerate.
3. Fragmentation of the global supply chain… The continuation of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz means an economic crisis for countries dependent on foreign energy, especially Europe. These countries are already in an energy crisis due to the ongoing crisis with Russia… The blow in the Strait of Hormuz will further worsen the situation. In the coming period, the deepening of the economic crisis in Europe, social crises and consequent radical system changes would not be surprising. Not just changes in who rules, but fundamental changes to the system itself. A real shift of power and geopolitical orientation…
4. If the US and Israeli attacks continue, the war will spread to the whole of West Asia. In this case, internal conflicts are likely to break out in Syria and Iraq… On the other hand, in addition to American and Israeli targets, political groups cooperating with these countries will become targets throughout the region. In Western Asia, anti-Americanism will be accompanied by an accelerated search for regional alliances.
5. From the perspective of Western Asia, the issue of regional cooperation is of critical importance.
An alliance formed by Türkiye, Egypt, and Iran – the countries and civilizations in the region with a deep state tradition – will positively affect not only the fate of the region but also that of humanity. Such a union would put a dam on ethnic, sectarian, and religious provocations in the region. It would bring a wind of full independence to the region. In this way, the West’s neocolonial policies toward Western Asia will be stopped…
6. If the war continues, we can expect the deepening of the existential crisis in Israel… an increase in reverse migration, disintegrations in the army and bureaucracy, and ultimately a regime crisis could happen… It is doubtful whether Israel will survive after Netanyahu.
7. It would not be wrong to say that Russia and China support Iran in different ways and at different levels. In the coming period, it is likely that the momentum of tension in US-Russia and US-China relations will intensify in connection with developments in Iran. In this context, the chances of Russia and the US, and China and the US, going head-to-head directly without using proxy forces will get stronger. So, a real risk of world war is emerging…
8. There is a possibility that the US and Israel will use nuclear weapons against Iran. Behind Trump’s statements “We will destroy Iranian civilization” lies a nuclear threat. The US and Israel are losing the war against Iran. Losing the war means the end of American influence in West Asia and the significant weakening of the empire. Moreover, it is inevitable for Israel to enter an existential crisis. Therefore, there is a possibility that the US and Israel will use nuclear weapons to survive. However, if they have evidence that Iran also possesses nuclear weapons, they would not dare to make such a move…
As I stated at the very beginning of my speech, we are going through difficult times…
But we see that the empire is weakening, and a new, multipolar world is being born…
Strengthening the bond between our countries and our peoples will further facilitate the establishment of the New World.
We are going through a process where victory will belong to those with strong strategy, hope, and determination… And above all, we must leave our prejudices behind and trust one another in order to establish a multipolar world.
I thank once again the organizers and participants of this valuable meeting.
